查理.芒格的4 个检查清单

一个成功的投资者,85%归功于正确的资产配置,10%来自于选择投资目标的功力,5%必须靠上帝的保佑。--威廉·夏普
上路看世界,归家读闲书,陋室观天下,余暇思古今,静坐听音乐,提笔写文章。-- 南半球
有钱不花是穷人。-- 蔡澜
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These are his indispensible tools for __decision making and problem solving_

The Two-track Analysis (Pages 63,64)

  • What are the factors that really govern the interests involved, reationally considered? (e.g., macro and micro-level economic factors).
  • What are the subconscious influences, where the brain at a subconscious level is automatically forming conclusions? (influences from instincts, emotions, cravings, and so on).
Investing and Decision Making (Pages 64-76)


Charlie's informal., but extensive, list of factors worthy of consideration:

http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/60957/201807/4724.html

Ultra-simple, General Problem-Solving Notions (Pages 279-281)

  • Decide the big "no-brainer" questions first.
  • Apply numerical fluency (use numerical analysis to support your points).
  • Invert (think the problem through in reverse).
  • Apply elementary multidisciplinary wisdom, never relying entirely on others.
  • Watch for combinations of factors --- the Lollapalooza effect.
Psychology-Based Tendencies (Pages 440-498)

  • The 25 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgement (中英文对照):
    • 一、奖励和惩罚 超级反应倾向


      二、喜欢/热爱倾向

      三、讨厌/憎恨倾向

      四、避免怀疑倾向

      五、避免不一致性倾向

      六、好奇心倾向


      七、康德式公平倾向

      八、艳羡/妒忌倾向

      九、回馈倾向

      十、受简单联想影响的倾向

      十一、简单的、避免痛苦的心理否认


      十二、自视过高的倾向

      十三、过度乐观倾向

      十四、被剥夺超级反应倾向

      十五、社会认同倾向

      十六、对比错误反应倾向


      十七、压力影响倾向

      十八、错误衡量易得性倾向

      十九、不用就忘倾向

      二十、化学物质错误影响倾向

      二十一、衰老—错误影响倾向


      二十二、权威—错误影响倾向

      二十三、废话倾向

      二十四、重视理由倾向

      二十五、lollapalooza 倾向——数种心理倾

      向共同作用造成极端后果的倾向
    • (以下的1-25 顺序应该反过来。这烂编辑软件!)
    1. Lollapalooza Tendency --- The Tendency to Get Extreme Consequences from Confluences of Psychological Tendencies Acting in Favor of a Particular Outcome
    2. Reason-Respecting Tendency
    3. Twaddle Tendency
    4. Authority-Misinfluence Tendency
    5. Senescene-Misinfluence Tendency
    6. Drug-Misinfluence Tendency
    7. Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency
    8. Availability-Misweighing Tendency
    9. Stress-Influence Tendency
    10. Contrast-Misreaction Tendency
    11. Social-Proof Tendency
    12. Deprival-Superreaction Tendency
    13. Overoptimism Tendency
    14. Execessive Self-Regard Tendency
    15. Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial
    16. Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency
    17. Reciprocation Tendency
    18. Envy/Jeasousy Tendency
    19. Kantian Fairness Tendency
    20. Curiosity Tendency
    21. Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency
    22. Doubt-Avoidance Tendency
    23. Disliking/Hating Tendency
    24. Liking/Loving Tendency
    25. Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency


Note:

From the book , Expanded 3rd Edition

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