此文直接从Andrew Yang 竞选网站查询其政纲,然后结合其它信息来源写成。
先看他最大的卖点,Universal Base Income (UBI)。每个美国公民年满18即可每月领取$1,000,或者说每年$12,000,无其它要求。按网上查到的美国人口局数据,现在美国人口3.08亿,18岁以上77.4%,这批人一共有2.38亿。当然不全是公民;但就打掉零头假设其中2亿公民(我认为这样估计其实严重低估了18岁以上公民数),那么一年UBI要发2.4万亿刀,大约是美国2018年GDP的12%。坦白地讲,这是很大很大一笔钱,美国2019年度总军费也才不到七千亿刀。
谁都爱钱,不过这么大一笔钱从哪里来?Yang网站给出了四个来源:
1. Current spending. We currently spend between $500 and $600 billion a year on welfare programs, food stamps, disability and the like. This reduces the cost of Universal Basic Income because people already receiving benefits would have a choice but would be ineligible to receive the full $1,000 in addition to current benefits.
简译:在每年五六千亿刀的福利开支,食品券,残疾照顾等等开支上开刀– 不过杨也很聪明立刻就留了尾巴,说明拿这些福利的可以在现福利待遇和每月拿一千刀之间选择。
点评:既然你自己都不知道这笔钱你能动还是不能动,那把它列为UBI第一来源,有误导之嫌吧?而且,如果这笔钱你根本动不了– 我认为这个可能性极大,谁会放弃手头已有的福利,谁放弃了那就说明UBI计划付给那个人比现在更多:他放弃福利你省了500,但你要给他1000,这是一个简单的逻辑问题- 那这个预期的五六千亿的坑如何填?杨你自己出吗?
2.
It would be easier than you might think. Andrew proposes funding UBI by consolidating some welfare programs and implementing a Value-Added Tax (VAT) of 10%. Current welfare and social program beneficiaries would be given a choice between their current benefits or $1,000 cash unconditionally – most would prefer cash with no restriction.
A VAT. Our economy is now incredibly vast at $19 trillion, up $4 trillion in the last 10 years alone. A VAT at half the European level would generate $800 billion in new revenue. A VAT will become more and more important as technology improves because you cannot collect income tax from robots or software.
简译:再额外加10%税,这个税叫什么名字其实不重要。现有领福利者可以选继续福利或领这个UBI - 大多数人会选择领钱。预计一年能多收八千亿刀。
点评:哈哈,首先我真不明白,为什么大多数人会选领钱?我如果一年福利超过一万二,我当然继续现有福利啊!美国一年能领超过一万二福利的人很少吗?接着我忍不住冷笑,苦笑三声,果然还是民主党啊!每年10%的新税,而且注意上面的措辞,不是现有的税加10%(原来交100,要交110)而是在经济总规模上多收10%(你一年毛收入10000,管你现在已经交了多少,再给我额外多交1000),张口就来。你知道有多少小商小贩,传统产业,夫妻老婆店利润率都不到10%,你要他们都关门上吊?那些付得起额外10%税的FLG们,它们会留在美国乖乖多给你交10%税?它们为什么不去中国爱尔兰?它们的各位大股东,同时也是民主党的大金主,会愿意交给你这10%吗?民主党对付中产阶级没话说,你真敢对那顶层5%,1%阶级开征额外10%税?
可能有人反驳了,我只收大公司的,高科技公司的– 那么杨为什么要拿美国总经济量估算?而且,大公司高科技公司高度国际化,你怎么能把它们留下给你多交10%?
八千亿刀,杨你还真敢估啊!
3. New revenue. Putting money into the hands of American consumers would grow the economy. The Roosevelt Institute projected that the economy would grow by approximately $2.5 trillion and create 4.6 million new jobs. This would generate approximately $500 – 600 billion in new revenue from economic growth and activity.
简译:发钱给消费者能促进经济。下面还有两组数字,不过杨也没敢明确说“是我的UBI政策导致这些美丽的数字”。
点评:共和党相信消费者手里有钱能促进经济。可杨你是民主党啊!而且你上面自己都不敢claim你的UBI是促成这些增长的主因。更荒唐的是,我估计上文中的预计(从“The Roosevelt Institute projected。。。”到最后)是研究机构基于现在的实际情况作出的,跟你这个UBI没半点关系!而且,这些经济增长预期实现之后你才能拿到你想发UBI的钱,那比如UBI2021年你当选后开始,这个坑怎么办?
4. We currently spend over one trillion dollars on health care, incarceration, homelessness services and the like. We would save $100 – 200 billion as people would take better care of themselves and avoid the emergency room, jail, and the street and would generally be more functional. Universal Basic Income would pay for itself by helping people avoid our institutions, which is when our costs shoot up. Some studies have shown that $1 to a poor parent will result in as much as $7 in cost-savings and economic growth.
简译:发钱就能解决急诊,监狱,流浪等问题,所以这上面每年能省一两千亿刀。
点评:放你娘的狗屁!请原谅我的粗口。民主党的福利,发钱,撒币政策实行了多少年了,要是有用这些问题早解决了,轮得着你来提出这个地球有史以来最大撒币计划?!
对UBI之总点评:没有什么新意,又是一个再典型不过的“如果能实现,那就很美好”式左派民主党狂想,幻想,空想。和我做梦“如果我中了十亿大乐透该怎么办”一样地美好,一样地可笑。而且,杨千刀,你敢不敢做一个非常简单的算术,如我在开头所做的那样,把UBI需要的钱数(即使不计通货膨胀,运营费用等)说出来,然后把你的四个(能想到更多那更好)来源更详细地说明,比如这个出30%,那个出25%,等等?