我以前曾经写过一篇介绍美国历史房价和房价指数的文章(文章链接),里面提到过,美国各个都市区(MSA)比较准确的房价指数,无论是FHFA房价指数,还是Freddie Mac 房价指数,数据最早只能追溯到1975年,其中Freddie Mac 都市区房价指数最为全面。这里结合Freddie Mac 都市区房价指数,简单介绍一下自1975年开始近半个世纪以来,美国发生的三次大的地产崩盘,它们分别是:
- 八十年代的石油危机
- 九十年代的东西海岸泡沫
- 次贷危机
房地产是有地域性的,并且各个地区的周期也不是完全相同的。
在这三次大的崩盘当中,最近一次的次贷危机是最惨烈的一次,尽管像德州等很少几个地区在次贷危机中房价所受影响不大,但总体上说次贷危机是接近全国性的。
而前两次崩盘则是局部性的,如果仅仅从名义房价指数(不计通胀)来看,甚至都看不出前两次崩盘的存在(下图中蓝线),主要是因为通货膨胀把它们给掩盖住了。当然也由于它们的局部性,对全国指数的整体影响也就没有次贷危机那么大。但如果过滤掉通货膨胀,前两次崩盘(下图中橙色线)还是非常明显的,甚至在有些地区,还是相当惨烈的:
这里按照发生的先后顺序简单介绍一下。
一.八十年代的石油危机
美国的经济从七十年代开始,就已经开始变差,二战的红利早已耗尽,又打了一场毫无意义耗费巨大的越南战争,到1971年美元正式跟黄金剥离,布雷顿森林体系的终结,美国经济开始了严重的滞胀期,就是高通胀率和高失业率并存。到七十年代末尽管经济有短暂的反弹,但从1978年到1983年又连续经历了两次经济衰退。
正可谓屋漏偏逢连夜雨,许多经济严重依赖于石油产业的地区,除了遭受经济衰退的打击外,又恰逢石油过剩和石油价格暴跌。本来早前1978~1979年发生的伊朗革命造成了短暂的石油短缺而使石油价格飙升,至1980年时曾一度飙升至$39.50/桶(相当于现在$132/桶),但随后价格开始暴跌,到1986年最低时竟跌到$10.4/桶(相当于现在$26/桶)。
多重危机沉重打击了石油重镇的经济和地产业,这些地区包括德州,俄克拉荷马州,路易斯安那州,阿拉斯加州等,其中石油之都休斯顿便是重灾区之一,据说当时是哀鸿满地,惨不忍睹。以下是此次崩盘中价格下跌最厉害的地区(Freddie Mac房价指数总共涵盖了382个都市区,没在名单之列的说明在此次危机中房价没有明显的下跌,毕竟这不是光荣榜,后面的表格也一样):
Metro | Percentage | Peak | Trough |
Casper WY | -50 | 1982/01 | 1988/04 |
Enid OK | -44 | 1982/09 | 1988/09 |
Lafayette LA | -39 | 1982/06 | 1988/10 |
Anchorage AK | -39 | 1984/09 | 1990/01 |
Fairbanks AK | -38 | 1984/09 | 1990/01 |
Midland TX | -35 | 1982/04 | 1987/12 |
Grand Junction CO | -34 | 1982/11 | 1985/10 |
Odessa TX | -34 | 1982/10 | 1989/12 |
Austin-Round Rock TX | -28 | 1985/09 | 1989/12 |
Oklahoma City OK | -28 | 1983/07 | 1988/09 |
Abilene TX | -26 | 1982/10 | 1989/12 |
Houma-Thibodaux LA | -25 | 1982/04 | 1988/11 |
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX | -24 | 1982/10 | 1987/12 |
Niles-Benton Harbor MI | -22 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Bay City MI | -21 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Jackson MI | -21 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Waterloo-Cedar Falls IA | -21 | 1982/04 | 1988/01 |
Brownsville-Harlingen TX | -20 | 1982/04 | 1989/01 |
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MI | -20 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Peoria IL | -20 | 1982/01 | 1986/01 |
Saginaw MI | -20 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Flint MI | -19 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Grand Island NE | -19 | 1982/08 | 1987/08 |
Monroe MI | -19 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Muskegon MI | -19 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Ann Arbor MI | -18 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Baton Rouge LA | -18 | 1983/11 | 1989/02 |
Kalamazoo-Portage MI | -18 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Lansing-East Lansing MI | -18 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Tulsa OK | -18 | 1983/07 | 1988/09 |
Victoria TX | -18 | 1982/10 | 1989/01 |
Battle Creek MI | -17 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
San Antonio-New Braunfels TX | -17 | 1986/05 | 1989/12 |
Billings MT | -16 | 1983/10 | 1988/02 |
Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI | -16 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Kennewick-Richland WA | -16 | 1982/02 | 1988/07 |
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission TX | -16 | 1982/10 | 1989/01 |
Midland MI | -16 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Beaumont-Port Arthur TX | -15 | 1982/10 | 1987/12 |
Corpus Christi TX | -15 | 1982/10 | 1989/01 |
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island IA-IL | -15 | 1983/08 | 1988/01 |
Farmington NM | -15 | 1982/07 | 1988/12 |
Beckley WV | -14 | 1983/11 | 1988/11 |
Corvallis OR | -14 | 1983/01 | 1986/10 |
Laredo TX | -14 | 1982/10 | 1987/12 |
Amarillo TX | -13 | 1984/08 | 1989/12 |
College Station-Bryan TX | -13 | 1984/08 | 1989/12 |
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX | -13 | 1986/05 | 1989/02 |
Longview WA | -13 | 1982/01 | 1982/09 |
New Orleans-Metairie LA | -13 | 1984/06 | 1989/03 |
Shreveport-Bossier City LA | -13 | 1986/05 | 1989/02 |
Tyler TX | -13 | 1986/05 | 1989/12 |
Bend-Redmond OR | -12 | 1982/12 | 1984/08 |
Lake Charles LA | -12 | 1982/05 | 1988/03 |
Ocala FL | -12 | 1984/08 | 1986/01 |
Coeur d'Alene ID | -11 | 1983/01 | 1987/11 |
Eugene OR | -11 | 1982/11 | 1984/07 |
Hammond LA | -11 | 1987/05 | 1989/02 |
San Angelo TX | -11 | 1982/10 | 1989/02 |
Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ | -10 | 1982/01 | 1983/04 |
Bismarck ND | -10 | 1984/03 | 1988/03 |
Charleston WV | -10 | 1983/11 | 1985/12 |
Duluth MN-WI | -10 | 1982/02 | 1985/07 |
Great Falls MT | -10 | 1986/02 | 1988/01 |
Killeen-Temple TX | -10 | 1986/07 | 1989/12 |
Lawton OK | -10 | 1986/05 | 1988/10 |
Morgantown WV | -10 | 1982/01 | 1982/08 |
Sebastian-Vero Beach FL | -10 | 1982/09 | 1986/01 |
Spokane-Spokane Valley WA | -10 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Bellingham WA | -9 | 1982/04 | 1986/12 |
Decatur IL | -9 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO | -9 | 1986/05 | 1989/03 |
Monroe LA | -9 | 1985/06 | 1989/01 |
Mount Vernon-Anacortes WA | -9 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Parkersburg-Vienna WV | -9 | 1982/01 | 1982/08 |
Salt Lake City UT | -9 | 1987/03 | 1989/01 |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA | -9 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Sherman-Denison TX | -9 | 1987/03 | 1989/12 |
Walla Walla WA | -9 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Wichita Falls TX | -9 | 1986/05 | 1989/01 |
Bremerton-Silverdale WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Columbus IN | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Danville IL | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
Greeley CO | -8 | 1986/05 | 1989/02 |
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin SC | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Johnstown PA | -8 | 1982/01 | 1985/03 |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV | -8 | 1982/08 | 1984/10 |
Logan UT-ID | -8 | 1983/06 | 1987/09 |
Longview TX | -8 | 1983/11 | 1989/01 |
Olympia-Tumwater WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Springfield IL | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
Wenatchee WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Yakima WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Dubuque IA | -7 | 1982/01 | 1985/04 |
Fresno CA | -7 | 1982/04 | 1983/12 |
Gainesville FL | -7 | 1982/09 | 1984/11 |
Grand Forks ND-MN | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/07 |
Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula MS | -7 | 1986/04 | 1989/03 |
Huntington-Ashland WV-KY-OH | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/08 |
Madera CA | -7 | 1982/04 | 1984/01 |
Medford OR | -7 | 1984/12 | 1986/03 |
Memphis TN-MS-AR | -7 | 1983/08 | 1984/06 |
Michigan City-La Porte IN | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Missoula MT | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Pocatello ID | -7 | 1986/06 | 1988/08 |
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA | -7 | 1984/12 | 1986/03 |
Redding CA | -7 | 1982/04 | 1984/01 |
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | -6 | 1987/08 | 1989/12 |
Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL | -6 | 1982/09 | 1983/12 |
Cheyenne WY | -6 | 1987/02 | 1988/04 |
Colorado Springs CO | -6 | 1987/03 | 1989/03 |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Kokomo IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Lafayette-West Lafayette IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Lubbock TX | -6 | 1986/05 | 1989/01 |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-W | -6 | 1985/03 | 1985/07 |
Morristown TN | -6 | 1983/10 | 1984/07 |
South Bend-Mishawaka IN-MI | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Terre Haute IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Texarkana TX-AR | -6 | 1983/10 | 1989/01 |
Waco TX | -6 | 1987/03 | 1989/01 |
Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Wheeling WV-OH | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Alexandria LA | -5 | 1986/05 | 1989/12 |
Bloomington IN | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Canton-Massillon OH | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Chico CA | -5 | 1982/05 | 1986/01 |
El Paso TX | -5 | 1986/07 | 1987/12 |
Hot Springs AR | -5 | 1986/04 | 1988/01 |
Jackson MS | -5 | 1985/07 | 1989/03 |
Jackson TN | -5 | 1983/11 | 1984/07 |
Johnson City TN | -5 | 1983/10 | 1984/06 |
Knoxville TN | -5 | 1983/10 | 1984/07 |
Lebanon PA | -5 | 1982/01 | 1983/01 |
Lima OH | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Mansfield OH | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach | -5 | 1982/09 | 1985/07 |
Ocean City NJ | -5 | 1982/03 | 1983/03 |
Ogden-Clearfield UT | -5 | 1986/06 | 1988/12 |
Pine Bluff AR | -5 | 1987/05 | 1989/04 |
Provo-Orem UT | -5 | 1983/06 | 1987/10 |
Rochester MN | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/09 |
Winchester VA-WV | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Akron OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Cedar Rapids IA | -4 | 1982/05 | 1984/03 |
Charlottesville VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Cleveland-Elyria OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Columbus OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Goldsboro NC | -4 | 1982/04 | 1982/08 |
Harrisonburg VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Hinesville GA | -4 | 1984/09 | 1985/04 |
Lynchburg VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Modesto CA | -4 | 1982/04 | 1983/12 |
Muncie IN | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
New Haven-Milford CT | -4 | 1988/06 | 1989/12 |
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ | -4 | 1987/07 | 1989/12 |
Port St. Lucie FL | -4 | 1982/09 | 1983/02 |
Pueblo CO | -4 | 1987/03 | 1989/01 |
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA | -4 | 1982/05 | 1983/12 |
Springfield OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Staunton-Waynesboro VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Toledo OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
Cincinnati OH-KY-IN | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Dayton OH | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Evansville IN-KY | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/09 |
Fargo ND-MN | -3 | 1987/06 | 1989/01 |
Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD-WV | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | -3 | 1988/07 | 1989/12 |
Lancaster PA | -3 | 1982/06 | 1983/01 |
Mankato-North Mankato MN | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA | -3 | 1988/07 | 1989/12 |
Richmond VA | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -3 | 1982/05 | 1983/12 |
Roanoke VA | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | -3 | 1982/04 | 1982/09 |
St. Joseph MO-KS | -3 | 1983/08 | 1984/02 |
The Villages FL | -3 | 1988/06 | 1989/12 |
Vineland-Bridgeton NJ | -3 | 1982/05 | 1983/02 |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News V | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA- | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Watertown-Fort Drum NY | -3 | 1988/08 | 1989/12 |
Wichita KS | -3 | 1987/06 | 1988/02 |
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
德州在此次危机之后一直到现在,房价总体上再也没有出现过明显的下跌,在次贷危机中受影响也很小。
二.九十年代的东西海岸泡沫
美国独居屋市场在六十年代和七十年代这二十年的大部分时间里,各州和各都市区的房价波动趋势基本一致,实际价格增长缓慢。在七十年代之前,房价的增长速度与通货膨胀率差不多,地区差异相对较小。但到了七十年代,房价上涨速度明显快于通货膨胀率, 但除了加州从1976 年至 1980 年地产市场比较繁荣外,其它地区之间的差异仍然很小。
相比之下,八十年代和九十年代房屋的价格波动开始加剧,不同地区的价格开始出现较大差异。八十年代开始,美国东北部、加州、夏威夷、西雅图和华盛顿特区的房价都出现了急剧上涨,比如,洛杉矶的房价从1985~1989增长了100%,而波士顿的房价从1982~1989则差不多增长了150%。房价的急剧上涨吸引了大批的资金,至1988~1989年时,这些地区的独居屋市场已经出现严重过剩,泡沫最严重的加州和美国东北部地区(尤其是新英格兰地区)房价开始崩溃,房价大约在1995~1996年触底,其中洛杉矶为重灾区:
Metro | Percentage | Peak | Trough |
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | -26 | 1988/07 | 1996/02 |
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA | -26 | 1990/04 | 1996/02 |
Manchester-Nashua NH | -26 | 1988/06 | 1994/02 |
New Haven-Milford CT | -25 | 1988/06 | 1996/02 |
Norwich-New London CT | -24 | 1989/04 | 1994/02 |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -24 | 1990/08 | 1996/12 |
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande CA | -23 | 1990/07 | 1996/01 |
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA | -22 | 1989/11 | 1995/12 |
Barnstable Town MA | -21 | 1988/05 | 1994/03 |
Kingston NY | -21 | 1989/08 | 1996/04 |
Pittsfield MA | -20 | 1990/01 | 1993/03 |
Springfield MA | -19 | 1990/01 | 1995/02 |
Binghamton NY | -18 | 1990/07 | 1996/12 |
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | -18 | 1988/05 | 1994/02 |
Modesto CA | -18 | 1990/08 | 1996/12 |
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA | -18 | 1990/10 | 1996/12 |
Worcester MA-CT | -18 | 1988/11 | 1994/03 |
Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH | -17 | 1988/07 | 1993/03 |
Lewiston-Auburn ME | -16 | 1989/11 | 1995/01 |
Providence-Warwick RI-MA | -16 | 1989/12 | 1996/02 |
San Diego-Carlsbad CA | -16 | 1990/08 | 1995/12 |
Vallejo-Fairfield CA | -16 | 1990/09 | 1996/12 |
Portland-South Portland ME | -15 | 1989/10 | 1995/01 |
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA | -15 | 1989/12 | 1994/02 |
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara CA | -15 | 1990/07 | 1996/01 |
Stockton-Lodi CA | -15 | 1990/09 | 1996/12 |
Urban Honolulu HI | -15 | 1991/11 | 1996/12 |
Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina HI | -14 | 1991/12 | 1996/12 |
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA | -14 | 1990/07 | 1995/12 |
The Villages FL | -14 | 1988/06 | 1993/02 |
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA | -13 | 1988/07 | 1994/03 |
Trenton NJ | -13 | 1988/06 | 1996/02 |
Bakersfield CA | -12 | 1992/02 | 1996/12 |
East Stroudsburg PA | -12 | 1990/02 | 1996/01 |
Ithaca NY | -12 | 1989/11 | 1996/04 |
Utica-Rome NY | -12 | 1992/11 | 1996/04 |
Merced CA | -11 | 1990/10 | 1996/12 |
Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | -11 | 1990/07 | 1995/12 |
Yuba City CA | -11 | 1991/07 | 1996/12 |
Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY | -10 | 1992/11 | 1996/12 |
Napa CA | -10 | 1991/06 | 1996/12 |
Santa Rosa CA | -10 | 1990/08 | 1996/01 |
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ | -9 | 1989/07 | 1996/01 |
Syracuse NY | -9 | 1990/07 | 1996/04 |
Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ | -8 | 1990/01 | 1996/02 |
Kennewick-Richland WA | -8 | 1994/05 | 1996/01 |
Killeen-Temple TX | -8 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
New Orleans-Metairie LA | -8 | 1988/01 | 1991/02 |
San Antonio-New Braunfels TX | -8 | 1988/01 | 1990/03 |
Bangor ME | -7 | 1989/11 | 1995/02 |
Fresno CA | -7 | 1992/09 | 1996/12 |
Glens Falls NY | -7 | 1990/07 | 1996/04 |
Lake Havasu City-Kingman AZ | -7 | 1991/11 | 1996/12 |
Ocean City NJ | -7 | 1990/01 | 1996/02 |
Redding CA | -7 | 1992/09 | 1996/12 |
Watertown-Fort Drum NY | -7 | 1988/08 | 1991/04 |
Alexandria LA | -6 | 1988/07 | 1991/02 |
Salinas CA | -6 | 1990/08 | 1996/01 |
Shreveport-Bossier City LA | -6 | 1988/01 | 1991/02 |
Vineland-Bridgeton NJ | -6 | 1992/02 | 1994/02 |
Chico CA | -5 | 1992/02 | 1996/01 |
Hammond LA | -5 | 1988/01 | 1989/02 |
Odessa TX | -5 | 1988/06 | 1990/03 |
San Angelo TX | -5 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
Sherman-Denison TX | -5 | 1988/06 | 1990/03 |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV | -5 | 1990/06 | 1996/02 |
Baton Rouge LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1989/02 |
College Station-Bryan TX | -4 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO | -4 | 1988/04 | 1989/03 |
Elmira NY | -4 | 1994/07 | 1996/04 |
Farmington NM | -4 | 1988/01 | 1988/12 |
Homosassa Springs FL | -4 | 1993/06 | 1996/01 |
Houma-Thibodaux LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1988/11 |
Lafayette LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1988/10 |
Madera CA | -4 | 1992/09 | 1996/12 |
Monroe LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1989/01 |
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD | -4 | 1990/02 | 1996/01 |
Salt Lake City UT | -4 | 1988/01 | 1989/01 |
Visalia-Porterville CA | -4 | 1994/07 | 1996/12 |
Brownsville-Harlingen TX | -3 | 1988/03 | 1989/01 |
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls NY | -3 | 1994/07 | 1996/03 |
Greeley CO | -3 | 1988/04 | 1989/02 |
Laredo TX | -3 | 1994/10 | 1996/02 |
Oklahoma City OK | -3 | 1988/01 | 1988/09 |
Pine Bluff AR | -3 | 1990/09 | 1991/08 |
Reading PA | -3 | 1994/07 | 1996/01 |
Rochester NY | -3 | 1992/11 | 1996/03 |
Texarkana TX-AR | -3 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
Waco TX | -3 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
Wichita Falls TX | -3 | 1988/06 | 1989/01 |
需要说明一点的是,尽管在1990~1991美国曾经出现过经济衰退,但经济衰退是在房价开始下跌以后才开始的,而不是以前,这也说明,房价的下跌不是经济衰退造成的,而主要是由房价上涨太快和房屋过剩造成的。
投坛大佬老朽兄的第一桶金,估计就是由于抓住这次机遇而赚取的。
三.次贷危机
次贷危机主要是由银行放贷过度引起的,用朽哥的话说就是银行无节操。这个很多人都经历过,想必已经很熟悉了,我也就不多啰嗦了,直接把整理的数据列出来:
Metro | Percentage | Peak | Trough |
Merced CA | -66 | 2006/04 | 2009/05 |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV | -64 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Modesto CA | -62 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Stockton-Lodi CA | -62 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Vallejo-Fairfield CA | -60 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL | -58 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
Madera CA | -58 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Reno NV | -58 | 2006/03 | 2012/02 |
Port St. Lucie FL | -57 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
Carson City NV | -56 | 2006/04 | 2012/02 |
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island FL | -56 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
Salinas CA | -56 | 2006/04 | 2012/02 |
Yuba City CA | -56 | 2005/09 | 2012/02 |
Punta Gorda FL | -55 | 2005/11 | 2011/02 |
Sebring FL | -55 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Bakersfield CA | -54 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach FL | -54 | 2006/04 | 2011/03 |
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton FL | -54 | 2006/03 | 2011/02 |
Ocala FL | -54 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville FL | -54 | 2005/11 | 2011/02 |
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ | -54 | 2006/05 | 2011/05 |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -53 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Sebastian-Vero Beach FL | -53 | 2005/11 | 2012/01 |
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL | -52 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA | -52 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
Fresno CA | -51 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Lakeland-Winter Haven FL | -51 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
Bend-Redmond OR | -50 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
El Centro CA | -50 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Homosassa Springs FL | -50 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Visalia-Porterville CA | -50 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Lake Havasu City-Kingman AZ | -49 | 2006/05 | 2011/05 |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL | -49 | 2006/05 | 2011/02 |
Prescott AZ | -48 | 2006/06 | 2011/06 |
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara CA | -48 | 2005/09 | 2012/02 |
Medford OR | -46 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Redding CA | -46 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Santa Rosa CA | -46 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL | -46 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MI | -45 | 2005/06 | 2011/02 |
Flint MI | -45 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Hanford-Corcoran CA | -45 | 2006/05 | 2012/02 |
Boise City ID | -44 | 2007/05 | 2011/03 |
Napa CA | -44 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
St. George UT | -44 | 2006/08 | 2011/03 |
Panama City FL | -43 | 2005/11 | 2012/01 |
Tucson AZ | -43 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Yuma AZ | -43 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Chico CA | -42 | 2006/04 | 2012/02 |
Grants Pass OR | -42 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin FL | -41 | 2005/11 | 2011/02 |
Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD-WV | -40 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Jacksonville FL | -40 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA | -40 | 2006/05 | 2012/02 |
Winchester VA-WV | -40 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Flagstaff AZ | -39 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina HI | -39 | 2006/06 | 2011/11 |
Monroe MI | -39 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA | -39 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Brunswick GA | -38 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
East Stroudsburg PA | -38 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
Jackson MI | -38 | 2005/08 | 2011/02 |
Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | -38 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Gainesville FL | -37 | 2007/04 | 2012/01 |
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA | -37 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande CA | -37 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley AL | -36 | 2006/08 | 2011/02 |
Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort SC | -36 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Lansing-East Lansing MI | -36 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA | -35 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Gainesville GA | -35 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach SC-NC | -35 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL | -35 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
San Diego-Carlsbad CA | -35 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI | -34 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Dalton GA | -34 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Grand Junction CO | -34 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Rockford IL | -34 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA | -34 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Ann Arbor MI | -33 | 2005/07 | 2012/01 |
Coeur d'Alene ID | -33 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Longview WA | -33 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Mount Vernon-Anacortes WA | -33 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Tallahassee FL | -33 | 2007/04 | 2012/01 |
Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ | -32 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Bremerton-Silverdale WA | -32 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Battle Creek MI | -31 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI | -31 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Muskegon MI | -31 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Saginaw MI | -31 | 2005/06 | 2012/02 |
Sierra Vista-Douglas AZ | -31 | 2007/05 | 2013/12 |
Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula MS | -30 | 2007/05 | 2012/02 |
Providence-Warwick RI-MA | -30 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
Provo-Orem UT | -30 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
Racine WI | -30 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
Salem OR | -30 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA | -30 | 2007/05 | 2009/04 |
Savannah GA | -30 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Vineland-Bridgeton NJ | -30 | 2007/06 | 2013/02 |
Wilmington NC | -30 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Dover DE | -29 | 2007/06 | 2012/03 |
Olympia-Tumwater WA | -29 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA | -29 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Salisbury MD-DE | -29 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Toledo OH | -29 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Eugene OR | -28 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Norwich-New London CT | -28 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
USA | -28 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Worcester MA-CT | -28 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
Albany OR | -27 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Bay City MI | -27 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | -27 | 2006/06 | 2013/01 |
Chambersburg-Waynesboro PA | -27 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Charleston-North Charleston SC | -27 | 2007/05 | 2012/02 |
Gettysburg PA | -27 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI | -27 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Jacksonville NC | -27 | 2007/07 | 2013/12 |
Janesville-Beloit WI | -27 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
California-Lexington Park MD | -26 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers AR-MO | -26 | 2006/07 | 2011/03 |
Hinesville GA | -26 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Macon GA | -26 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Manchester-Nashua NH | -26 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
Mobile AL | -26 | 2007/07 | 2011/12 |
Salt Lake City UT | -26 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
Santa Fe NM | -26 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Trenton NJ | -26 | 2006/07 | 2012/03 |
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ | -25 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Athens-Clarke County GA | -25 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD | -25 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Cleveland-Elyria OH | -25 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Kankakee IL | -25 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Kingston NY | -25 | 2006/07 | 2013/03 |
Mansfield OH | -25 | 2006/06 | 2013/01 |
New Haven-Milford CT | -25 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
Richmond VA | -25 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Spokane-Spokane Valley WA | -25 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
St. Cloud MN | -25 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA-NC | -25 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV | -25 | 2006/06 | 2009/02 |
Columbus GA-AL | -24 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
New Bern NC | -24 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA | -24 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
The Villages FL | -24 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Wenatchee WA | -24 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Idaho Falls ID | -23 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Kokomo IN | -23 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
Las Cruces NM | -23 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI | -23 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Ocean City NJ | -23 | 2006/06 | 2013/02 |
Staunton-Waynesboro VA | -23 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Valdosta GA | -23 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
York-Hanover PA | -23 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Albany GA | -22 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Auburn-Opelika AL | -22 | 2007/06 | 2011/12 |
Barnstable Town MA | -22 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Dayton OH | -22 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Elkhart-Goshen IN | -22 | 2007/06 | 2011/01 |
Kalamazoo-Portage MI | -22 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Niles-Benton Harbor MI | -22 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Ogden-Clearfield UT | -22 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Rome GA | -22 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Sheboygan WI | -22 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
St. Louis MO-IL | -22 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Akron OH | -21 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Albuquerque NM | -21 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH | -21 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Canton-Massillon OH | -21 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Charlottesville VA | -21 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Greeley CO | -21 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Augusta-Richmond County GA-SC | -20 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Bellingham WA | -20 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Hammond LA | -20 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Harrisonburg VA | -20 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Montgomery AL | -20 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Reading PA | -20 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Warner Robins GA | -20 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Asheville NC | -19 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Birmingham-Hoover AL | -19 | 2007/06 | 2011/12 |
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia NC-SC | -19 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
Memphis TN-MS-AR | -19 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD | -19 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Cincinnati OH-KY-IN | -18 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Green Bay WI | -18 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | -18 | 2006/07 | 2013/02 |
Kansas City MO-KS | -18 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Lewiston-Auburn ME | -18 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Pueblo CO | -18 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Springfield MO | -18 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Sumter SC | -18 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA | -18 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville AL | -17 | 2007/07 | 2011/12 |
Colorado Springs CO | -17 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Duluth MN-WI | -17 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Lima OH | -17 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
Michigan City-La Porte IN | -17 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Roanoke VA | -17 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Springfield MA | -17 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Springfield OH | -17 | 2006/06 | 2013/01 |
Walla Walla WA | -17 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Columbia SC | -16 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
Columbus OH | -16 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Danville IL | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Farmington NM | -16 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Fond du Lac WI | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Madison WI | -16 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Mankato-North Mankato MN | -16 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Morristown TN | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Pittsfield MA | -16 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Pocatello ID | -16 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Rochester MN | -16 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
South Bend-Mishawaka IN-MI | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Wausau WI | -16 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Cumberland MD-WV | -15 | 2007/08 | 2013/12 |
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton NC | -15 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
Lynchburg VA | -15 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Midland MI | -15 | 2006/07 | 2009/02 |
Portland-South Portland ME | -15 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Rocky Mount NC | -15 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Corvallis OR | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Dothan AL | -14 | 2007/07 | 2011/12 |
Greensboro-High Point NC | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Greenville NC | -14 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Jackson TN | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Lancaster PA | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Logan UT-ID | -14 | 2008/07 | 2012/01 |
Missoula MT | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Muncie IN | -14 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
New Orleans-Metairie LA | -14 | 2007/04 | 2012/01 |
Oshkosh-Neenah WI | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Spartanburg SC | -14 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Winston-Salem NC | -14 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Appleton WI | -13 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Bangor ME | -13 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA | -13 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Champaign-Urbana IL | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Cleveland TN | -13 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Des Moines-West Des Moines IA | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Glens Falls NY | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Hattiesburg MS | -13 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Lewiston ID-WA | -13 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin TN | -13 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton PA | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
St. Joseph MO-KS | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Bloomington IL | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Burlington NC | -12 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Decatur IL | -12 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO | -12 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
El Paso TX | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Fayetteville NC | -12 | 2008/07 | 2013/12 |
Florence SC | -12 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Harrisburg-Carlisle PA | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Laredo TX | -12 | 2007/06 | 2011/01 |
Peoria IL | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Pine Bluff AR | -12 | 2007/08 | 2013/12 |
Raleigh NC | -12 | 2008/06 | 2012/02 |
Yakima WA | -12 | 2008/07 | 2012/01 |
Cape Girardeau MO-IL | -11 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Chattanooga TN-GA | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Eau Claire WI | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Fort Wayne IN | -11 | 2007/06 | 2009/01 |
Gadsden AL | -11 | 2008/07 | 2011/12 |
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin SC | -11 | 2008/07 | 2012/02 |
Huntsville AL | -11 | 2008/08 | 2011/12 |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN | -11 | 2007/07 | 2011/02 |
Knoxville TN | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Lawrence KS | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Lebanon PA | -11 | 2008/07 | 2013/01 |
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission TX | -11 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Terre Haute IN | -11 | 2006/08 | 2009/01 |
Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH | -11 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY | -10 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Goldsboro NC | -10 | 2008/06 | 2011/02 |
Hot Springs AR | -10 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Jackson MS | -10 | 2007/05 | 2010/12 |
Lafayette-West Lafayette IN | -10 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
Omaha-Council Bluffs NE-IA | -10 | 2006/07 | 2011/12 |
Beaumont-Port Arthur TX | -9 | 2008/07 | 2012/01 |
Binghamton NY | -9 | 2008/07 | 2012/02 |
Decatur AL | -9 | 2007/08 | 2011/12 |
Durham-Chapel Hill NC | -9 | 2008/07 | 2012/02 |
Evansville IN-KY | -9 | 2007/07 | 2009/01 |
Joplin MO | -9 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Louisville/Jefferson County KY-IN | -9 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Tuscaloosa AL | -9 | 2008/07 | 2011/02 |
Wichita KS | -9 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Carbondale-Marion IL | -8 | 2007/07 | 2009/02 |
Fort Collins CO | -8 | 2007/07 | 2009/01 |
Lawton OK | -8 | 2007/08 | 2013/01 |
Lincoln NE | -8 | 2006/07 | 2009/02 |
Topeka KS | -8 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Baton Rouge LA | -7 | 2007/09 | 2012/01 |
Brownsville-Harlingen TX | -7 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Fort Smith AR-OK | -7 | 2008/08 | 2012/01 |
Johnson City TN | -7 | 2008/08 | 2011/01 |
Killeen-Temple TX | -7 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Lexington-Fayette KY | -7 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Manhattan KS | -7 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Cedar Rapids IA | -6 | 2008/08 | 2012/01 |
Fairbanks AK | -6 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Johnstown PA | -6 | 2010/06 | 2013/02 |
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox KY | -5 | 2010/06 | 2013/02 |
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway AR | -5 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
四.结语
第一次崩盘发生在石油重镇, 而第二次崩盘主要发生在东西两海岸的加州和美国东北部,这两次崩盘的区域基本是不重叠的,也就是说尽管前面提到了三次崩盘,但大多地区至多会经历两次, 甚至只会经历一次,不太可能经历全部三次。
在写那篇房价指数文章之前,我还不知道Freddie Mac 房价指数的存在,所以以前用的都是FHFA房价指数。但FHFA房价指数大多都是从1991年Q1才开始的,如果比较一下加州vs德州,洛杉矶vs休斯顿从1991年Q1开始到现在的FHFA房价指数(房价增长率),会得到如下的对比:
- 加州 263 : 德州 259
- 洛杉矶 237: 休斯顿 227
单看这个对比结果,很容易得出这样的结论:德州和加州,洛杉矶和休斯顿,它们的房价增值速度差不多。在过去的30年里,也的确如此。
但这种简单的对比是有欺骗性的,因为1991年,对于德州和休斯顿来说, 已经是柳暗花明,早已度过了最黑暗的时期,并且自此后,德州和休斯顿的房价基本上一直处在上升的趋势,即便次贷危机都没能阻止这种趋势。
而1991年,对加州和洛杉矶来说,还有两次过山车要坐,也就是说还要经历两次大的波动,当时恰好是第一次过山车之前的高峰之上,正在往下冲:
如果把时间段放长些,比较一下从1975年1月到2021年八月Freddie Mac 房价指数的数据,会得到以下对比结果:
- 洛杉矶 2117: 休斯顿 647
显然会得出不同的结论。
熟知过去,才能更好的认知未来。
每次写这一类文章,总能学到新东西,至少对我自己来说是值了,希望也对您会有一些帮助!
作者:建宁 2021/10/13 (转载须经作者本人同意)