马凯硕 世界变局 中国的角色 China's role in shifting world新加坡马凯硕教授Mahbubani: 世界变局 中国的角色 德国研讨会
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgIESBzuL3Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24JB7Cl9sV0&t=767s
解说词
I agree with most part of that what you have said Mr mahubani and Stefan housewas not far from your position，the one question， I would have and put onyou Mr mahubani， you said and your diagnosed that most countries， forexample in Asia， looking on the road and belt initiative and on the vaccinationof the Indonesian presidentdon't have any mistrust towards Chinabut my question would beis it um is it Justified to trust inChina so my question would be if youhave for example deeper economic traderelations Germany for exampleum would there be the situation or couldthere be a situation where you could getblackmailed by uh by uh China since uhthe thethe deepness of the trade relation couldbring for example Germany in a weakposition that would be my my questionand I agree what you have said in regardto to the United States they don't likethe idea that China could be couldbecome number one and say it's a battlethis idea by words up to now but on theother hand as you mentioned uh someminutes ago the Biden Administrationalways has said we stay we keep on tothe to the one China policy and even theTrump Administration never hasum crossed out this one China policythereforeum where do you see anyaction any any militarypreparations or so from the the UnitedStates that they really would fightthese ideas that this idea that Chinacould becomeum number one I I don't see thisdevelopment up to now and you're right Iwould agree if the United States wouldtake any any steps to to battle Chinabecoming number one that could be a verydangerous situation but up to now Ipersonally don't see this developmentmaybe you can give us some explanationhow this could develop and andhappen in your view thank you thank youvery much uh the first question on trustsecond question how China is blockinghow United States is blocking China'srights but I hope by the way I hope youall have questions for Stefan to umplease it's a real privilege to haveStephanie you're the expert no no he'she's a real privilege and pleasure tohave him so let's let's engage him andget his wisdom too well I'll I'll answeryour question first on the question oftrust I want to emphasize that assomeone who practiced diplomacy for 33yearsI'm just an old-fashioned realist okayand I believe that countries have nopermanent friends no permanent enemiesthey only have interests and mostcountries in the world will do businesswith China whether or not they trust ordistrust China is irrelevant thequestion is whether or not you will youcan do business with China and to giveyou a concrete example right take Brazilfor example right in the year 2000 ittook Brazil one year to export uh onebillion dollars to Chinanow it takes Brazil 60 hours to export 1billion dollars to China so whether theytrust China or distrust China they willdo business with Chinalet's be very clear this is what mostcountries in the world so the trusttherefore is is a I would say is not afactor in in international relationsamong most countries uh in the world andyou know you mentioned by the way a caseof china bullying I want to say that theidea of a benevolent superpower is anoxymoronall great Powers will exert theirinterests and all great Powers willbully small states whether it's Russiawhether United States China it doesn'tmatterthey were all Bully small states andthat's a reality and if you want aconcrete example Joseph stiglitz theNobel Laureate in his book has given aclassic examplewhen Ethiopia was very very poor I thinkin the 60s or 70s it repaid alone earlyto American Banks because the interestrate was too highthe American Banks complained to the U.Streasury the U.S treasury called theWorld Bank the World Bank pulled loansfrom one of the poorest countries in theworld Ethiopia because Ethiopia paid offAmerican Banks too early so that's asimple example of all great Powersbehave in a certain way and we have toaccept that that's a realitynow on your second point about howUnited States is stopping China I cantell youthat there is a powerful deep consensusin Washington DCthat China has to be stoppednow first phase was the trade War you'veseen that already and what's interestingis that Biden as you knowdoesn't agree with Trump on anythinghasn't been able to lift a single tariffon Chinathat's one one instrument they're usingnumber two technologythere is a massive technology Warhas begunand therefore the United States will seewhich are the areas in which he canmaintain an agent technologyand ensure that China never catches upand China will try its hardestto catch upso the big technology racehas begunright then number threemaking surethat countries are pushed or nudgedto was moving to the United States sideyou've seen that with Australia you'veseen that with Japan and that's what'sgoing to be a a very hard push so you'vegot to be readyand you'll be aha suddenly to make achoice and simple example is Huaweiright many countries wanted to buyHuawei because it's cheaperguess whatyou buy Huaweiyou getsome pressure I can tell you in my lastdivorce meetingin January 2020 and I was talking to aroom like this to a group of CEOs okayand mythe person next to me I cannot mentionhis name was a very distinguishedBritish citizen very distinguishedand I asked him the question aboutHuaweihe says Kishorethe UKhas got some of the best intelligenceagencies in the worldright it's truehe says we have planted our people inHuaweiwe have scrubbed everythingHuawei is not a threat to usI said hang on a secondWashington DC will call youin this British gentleman like thissurewho do you thinkyou know we areright of course UK is going to standindependentJanuary 2020.July 2020 UK capitulatedthat's the warokay economic sanctions never workedeconomic sanctions never worked Iremember a gallery of pictures in theUnited States newspaper showing thepictures of all the presidents sinceEisenhowerand there was one line before mypresidential time is run out Fidel Cascowon't rule Cuba anymoreand that was a small island it does notwork who said thatsorry there was some kind of a joke youknow it was one onesentence from all the presidents beforemy time is over Fidel Castro won't bethe ruler of Cuba anymore and was agallery of U.S president sinceEisenhowerso my question wasum what do you thinkwhich system or which country has to paythe bigger price if it comes to aconfrontation between over Taiwan is itChina or is it I call it the Westincluding the European Union and theUnited Statesum in a economical senseum and you very frankly saidum Chinais going to be not rational uh when itcomes to the Taiwan question soum this ignited the next question for medoes this mean China is lostTaiwan is lostthat that it's clear China will willtake over Taiwan sooner or lateruh maybe in the year of the tiger whoknows which would be uh more sooneror do you thinkumthe west and in particular the Unitedthe United States would to haveum stand up for Taiwan as it holds Ithink it's 25 of the semiconductorindustry worldwide so and they very muchdepend on this Industries do they havetoum take this part over and yes step intoa confrontation and what does it meanfor Europe in particular for Germany whohas veryum very strong ties to economical tiesto China the the economic of China andin Germany are much intertwined so whatwhat is your perspective and what whatdo you think about this thank youwell I thinkclearly one one thing we all share incommonis to avoid a war on Taiwanand we should do whatever we can toavoid a war on Taiwan becauseand by the way you know the way thenuclear war will happen is not as thoughthey'll press the button immediately youknow I'll tell you how it works okayChina announces a blockade of TaiwanAmerica censorship the ship has acollision with the Chinese ship Americanship sinks 150 Sailors dieand then America has to react because150 American Sailors have died they fireone missile as a warning China cannot donothing China has to respond and so itis through a process of escalation thatit happens rightand my sense is that the BidenAdministration actuallyhas worked through some of thesescenariosand therefore you notice that it's goingback to the one China policy One Chinapolicy uh one China policy and I thinkyou know I also think that we should doour best to preserve peace in Taiwan andfortunately there is a very easysolutionthe easy solution iswe've had 50 years of peacehowby creating maintaining all kinds ofambiguitieswithout seeking claritykeep these ambiguitiesdon't change anythingjust leave everything today as it isrightand you pretendthat you know uh we have a one Chinapolicy you maintain your unofficial tieswith Taiwan which is what the UnitedStates is doingdon't change it don't change anythingbut the minute you change you trigger aCascade of events that you cannotcontroland therefore don't change the statusquo and that that frankly is the mostsensible thing for all of us to do sofor example I give you a concreteexampleuh Biden Administration says it's infavor of one China policy rightsays thatit should get drying one to saywe are in favor of one China policy toothen there'll be no war rightno reason for warso but if you try to change itthen you createalmost by definition and inevitablecondition and for all of us will sufferby the way I want to emphasize this allof us especially the people of Taiwan soif we care for the people of Taiwanlet's not change the status quookay we have another question please yepover therethank youum Professor the um you said a lot ofwonderful things about China and umsurely doing a lot of things right butbut how do you reconcile the fact thatto make it work for China it seems to bebased on a high level of repressionumenvironmental destruction censorship acertain ideological stubbornnessum I mean we've spoken at Hong Kong theuyghurshow do you how do you reconcile that andwhy do you think that's I mean do youthink that's tolerablethank youum I'm really glad you asked thatquestionbecause your question captured very wellthe Anglo-Saxon media's perception ofChinaand I would suggest you very bluntlythat it's a distorted perspective ofrealitylet's take the first word you userepressionif the Communist Party of Chinaonly relied on repressionto stay in powerhe would not create the most dynamiceconomy in the worldrightit is by far the most dynamic economy inthe world it has delivered the fastestgrowing economyfor 30 yearsand it has done thisby educating the Chinese peopleto a level and extent that the Chinesepeople have never been educated everbeforeand you say is repressionyou obviously are taking the old ColdWar mindsetI was in Moscow in 1976and I saw repression in Moscowand I when I was in Moscowthe Soviet citizenswere not allowed to travel outside theSoviet Unionthat's a repressionin the year 2019139 million Chineseleft China freelyguess whatzero defectors139 million Chinese rightthat's twice the population of the UKwent back to Chinaso all your description when you sayenvironmental degradationthe United China's climate changepoliciesare far more responsiblethan those of the United States whichhas not once but twicewithdrawn from Global EnvironmentalprotocolsKyoto Protocolthe Bush Administration lefteight yearsParis Accords Trump Administration leftfour yearsand you know what the reason why we'rehaving climate change today is notbecause of new flows of greenhouse gasemissions from China and Indiait's becauseof what the Western countries have putin the atmosphere since the WesternIndustrial Revolutionget the datathe single largest contributorcumulativelyright is number one United States numbertwo Europe number three Chinarightand the the West wants China to pay aneconomic price for the current flowsbut the West doesn't want to pay aneconomic price for what it put in theatmosphereyou want to deprive the Indians ofelectricitywhen the United States could just by theway the United States could impose adollar a gallon taxthat will save the worldcut down gasoline consumptionraise money for investment in GreenTechnology Simple Solutionsand by contrastthe largest reforestation program in theworldis carried out by Chinait has already reforested an area thesize of Belgium were bigger rightso all your descriptions capture thenatural distortions of China that youget in the Anglo-Saxon media whichviolate the rules of the Enlightenmentwhich say that you must be a rationalcalm and objective especially inunderstanding your adversary and if theChinese were as stupid and asincompetent as you describe them to bedon't worry about them but I can assureyou you are now dealing with a far moreintelligent and rational actor thatdoesn't fit any of the Anglo-Saxoncategories that you apply to them my forplease forgive my bluntnessI would like to hear from Stefan housewhether he agrees with the view thatChina is not a repressive systemwell I wouldn't agree with thisumit's a Communist party it's not ademocracyum but this is the way it is and I don'tthink that we should try to change theworldumwhere we cannot change it and when whenI see how they control the populationum that helps if you are have a aPanama when when when you have uma pandemy it it helps to control thepeople at the same timethe experiment helps to the governmentto control the population uh this is nota democratic system which I would wishwe would have but on the other hand youcan see that this system helped millionsof people get out of hunger and and tomake a personal career to go to schoolsto study and to to to to to build upum a veryimportant when not if not the mostimportant economic in the world so uhwhat what we tried in the book to try toto show what's going on there how thesituation is but not putting ourselvesin the position uh to tell them how theyshould live and how they could shouldchange it for my personal view I'm farmore in favor of the western DemocraticSociety but what we always thought isthat economic power and economic growthgoes together with with a democraticsystem as we have it at least we had itsince the war since the end of the warum we have to see that that that theCommunist system like in China can bevery successful and we have to deal withit whether we like it or notand can we take the next question fromthis gentleman here in the blue shirtokayum oh she came first okayum first of all you mentioned earlierthat you are setting your hopes onEurope and I would say maybe you mightwant to prepare yourself for somedisappointments but this is onlypersonal remarkum I have a follow-up question uh fromthe earlier speakerumyou mentioned that we should be moreobjective when it comes to China and umthat and see also their achievements butmy question would beif you know my the Chinese populationsees those achievements and appreciatesthem why do they still need censorshipthen that would they shouldn't need itif if uh all the you know the whole ofthe population sees those achievementsthat's a contradiction to me and secondof allumcould you elaborate on Taiwan why do youthinkum China would accept the status quo whydo you think China would say well thisis fine we can live with it as long aseverybody plays along or do you don'tyou think that China at some point willjust say we want Taiwan back and we wantit our way and we just don't accept itlike it is at the momentokayumyou know the the thing about yourquestion on censorshipuh is thatit tries to sort of say more or lessexcuse methat in the west we have no censorshipthat's whiteChina which has censorship is black okayand I would say that in most societiesare Shades of Grayyou have no formal censorshipin Western societiesbelieve me you have informal censorshipright in the United States today by thewayit goes down to political correctnessand even in the greatest universitiesright in the US today and I'm this I'mtold by graduates of these greatuniversities I just was therethe the political culture is pushingtowards political correctness there isno formal censorship but there's so manythings you just cannot say anymoreand if you want an example of this readthe financial times this weekenduh lunch with fds with a Yale ProfessorAmy Chuashe spoke freelysee what happened to herthat's also censorshipokay so there are different kinds ofcensorship there are the blatant kind ofcensorship you can see and the not sogreat and kind so the only point I wantto tell you about Chinese Society isthiswhich is I think you should this is theone reality that almost nobody canunderstandwhich is that most of the Chinese peoplehave never been happieryou know it's amazing you have to livethere to see itand in my bookI cite one of a America's greateststrategic thinkers George Cannonand he says at the end of the day theoutcome of the contest with the UnitedStates and Soviet Union the old Cold Warwould depend on which society enjoysgreater spiritual vitalitywhere are the people happier especiallythe bottom 50 percentand today this is a reality that youjustfind it difficult to accept but it isrealthe bottom 50 in Americaare about to vote Trump back in in 2024.Trump is coming backright the danger of trump coming back isso realand I can tell you that shows you what adifficult divided dysfunctional SocietyUnited States has become that they canvote Trump back that's unhappinesssurfacingin China by contrastpeople today are still amazed at howmuch their lives have improvedand are happy with the situation thatthey have down there which is why to behonest I'm with apologies to you Ireacted very strongly to the wordrepressionbecause the Chinese peopleactually understand and appreciatehow much they have advanced and they andthe Chinese actually now the peopleactually and this is something that I Imet someone who was herea few days ago speaks Chinese fluentlyhas been there recentlyand he said in China there used to be anatural awe and respect for the Westwhich is goodbut that awe and respect for the West isdiminishing as they see what ishappening in Western societiesespecially United States and they seewhat's happening in China so I want youall to understandthat don't use black and whitecategories to understand China at theWestunderstand the strengths of the West theweaknesses of the West understand thestrengths of China weaknesses of Chinaand then make a comparison don't doblack and white uh comparisons and on onTaiwan basically just my simple answeris if you don't check the status quo wecan keep peaceno but the Chinese are not going to goout and launch a military uh War becauseagain I discussed this in my book theChinese believethat the best way to win a war iswithout fightingif you have to fightit means you're not a good you're not agood General[Music]thank you
