99岁芒格警告：美国银行业堆满了“地产坏账”
王眉
“股神”巴菲特的长年事业伙伴、波克夏公司副董事长孟格（Charlie Munger）警告说，美国商业地产市场正在酝酿风暴，随着房地产价格下跌，美国银行业满手“坏帐”。
芒格最新警告称，美国商业地产市场正在酝酿一场风暴，随着地产价格下跌，美国银行业“充斥着不良贷款”。
巴菲特的老搭档、伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长查理·芒格在最近的一次采访中，对美国目前的银行业危机发表了令人吃惊的评论。
在接受英国《金融时报》周日的采访时，芒格警告称，美国商业地产市场正在酝酿一场风暴，随着地产价格下跌，美国银行业“充斥着不良贷款”。
芒格说：“很多房地产的情况已经不太妙了。我们有很多陷入困境的办公楼，很多陷入困境的购物中心，还有很多陷入困境的其他房地产。外面哀鸿遍野。”
他补充说：“与六个月前相比，目前美国每家银行对房地产贷款的收紧程度都要高得多。”
尽管芒格指出，目前的市场并不像2008年时那样糟糕，但他表示，“银行业也会遇到麻烦，就像其他地方都会遇到麻烦一样。”
芒格发出警告之际，正值美国联邦监管机构要求各大银行在周日下午之前提交对第一共和银行的最终收购要约，这是有关美国中型银行业危机的最新消息。
虽然伯克希尔有在美国金融不稳定时期支持银行业的历史，但到目前为止该公司对硅谷银行和Signature银行的倒闭一直置身事外。
芒格认为伯克希尔的克制，部分是由于银行大量商业地产贷款可能带来的风险。
他表示：
“伯克希尔对银行进行了一些投资，业绩显示非常好。我们对银行也有一些失望。明智地经营一家银行并不是那么容易；做错事的诱惑有很多。”
Charlie Munger Warns of 'Bad' Commercial Real Estate Loans at Banks
Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger said that banks are facing headwinds because of their real estate loans as property values dipped.
The commercial property loans held by US banks are problematic since many of them would be deemed as "bad loans" since property values have declined, said Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
Banks in the U.S. are “full of” real estate loans that he considers "bad loans," he told the Financial Times.
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The banking system in the US has faced turbulence recently with the closures and bailouts of Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York and the near collapse of First Republic Bank in California as it faces a crisis of confidence.
Munger, 99, who has worked alongside Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire (BRK.A) - Get Free Report, for many decades, said banks will encounter challenges with their commercial real estate portfolios with the decline of property values office vacancies have risen in many cities and interest rates increased.
But the roadblocks that banks could run into will be more mild compared to the Great Recession that occurred during 2007 to 2008.
“It’s not nearly as bad as it was in 2008,” Munger told the FT during a recent interview at his home in Los Angeles.
“But trouble happens to banking just like trouble happens everywhere else," he said. "In the good times you get into bad habits . . . When bad times come they lose too much.”
Berkshire Invests in Banks
Buffett and his conglomerate have long been fans of bank stocks and supported them during previous financial problems, including investing $5 billion into Goldman Sachs (GS) - Get Free Report during the financial crisis. In 2011, Berkshire made a $5 billion bet into Bank of America (BAC) - Get Free Report.
While Buffett and Munger have invested in banks for several decades, the company has stuck with large banks like Wells Fargo and avoided investing in smaller ones.
“Berkshire has made some bank investments that worked out very well for us,” Munger said. “We’ve had some disappointment in banks, too. It’s not that damned easy to run a bank intelligently, there are a lot of temptations to do the wrong thing.”
While Berkshire has been a longtime investor in insurance companies, neither Munger nor Buffett like the volatility that stems from loans in commercial real estate. The decline in property values may not see a turnaround soon, especially in office buildings as well as shopping centers as portions of the workforce continue to work remotely.
“A lot of real estate isn’t so good any more,” he said. “We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centers, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.”
Some banks had already started lowering their risk by approving fewer commercial real estate loans that developers sought.
“Every bank in the country is way tighter on real estate loans today than they were six months ago,” Munger said. “They all seem [to be] too much trouble.”
Since 1965, Berkshire produced compounded annual returns of almost 20%,which is twice the rate generated by the S&P 500.
Munger credits part of their success to their timing and some good luck.
“We were a creature of a particular time and a perfect set of opportunities,” he said Munger.
The two investors also had several advantages, including “by and large [from] low interest rates, low equity values, ample opportunities,” he said.
Munger's net worth is valued at $2.4 billion by Forbes and is diversified. In addition to his shares in Berkshire, he has invested in Costco (COST) - Get Free Report, the warehouse retailer, plus Munger allocated money into a fund managed by Li Lu’s Himalaya Capital. He also invested money into Afton Properties, a real estate company that venture that owns apartments in New Jersey and California.
His wealth is the result of investing in companies at a discount.
“It’s the nature of things that a very intelligent man working hard maybe gets three, four, five really good long-term opportunities of buying great companies at a cheap price,” Munger said. “It happens rarely.”
Investors are eagerly awaiting Berkshire's annual meeting in Omaha on May 6 when Munger and Buffett will discuss their investment strategies and take questions from their shareholders.
Expect Lower Returns, Munger Says
Investors need to be prepared for a pullback in the market and expect lower returns from their shares of companies, Munger said.
“It’s gotten very tough to have anything like the returns that were obtained in the past,” he said. “[At] the exact time that the game is getting tougher we’ve got more and more people trying to play it.”
