德国企业家备受煎熬 政客脱钩中国

HAWE Hydraulik SE, Germany

https://www.hawe.com/company/company-downloads/company-downloads/

Phone: +49 89 379100-1000, Fax: +49 89 379100-91000
info@hawe.de

Karl Haeusgen is President of the VMDA (Mechanical Engineering Industry Association). Chairman of the Supervisory Board of HAWE

"除了中国还有什么替代方案" : 地缘政治夹缝中的德企

ERIKA SOLOMON 2023年7月7日
 
 
在遭受“第二次世界大战”重创的城市废墟中,卡尔·霍伊斯根的外祖父发明了一种液压泵。外祖父对这项发明非常自豪,于是成立了一家公司来销售它。那时候没有收入预测,也没有五年增长战略,计划就是生存下去:“成立公司只是为了抓住机会,”霍伊斯根说。
 
经历70年和三代人之后,这家名为“哈威液压”(HAWE Hydraulik)的家族企业向全球销售近2500种零件。但霍伊斯根必须考虑的不再是争夺销售额,而是一个日益两极分化世界的地缘政治。
 
“我业务的三分之一,如果不是更多的话,取决于拜登和习近平如何相处,”他说。“有时我但愿我经营一家餐馆,不必关心全球政治。”
 
由于哈威最大的买家在中国和北美,霍伊斯根不能不关心地缘政治。随着中国政府与西方国家的紧张局势加剧,哈威的管理层正在努力防止让公司过于依赖庞大的中国市场。
 
德国长期以来一直是中国与欧洲贸易的关键,如今却在世界两大经济体的外交争执中日益进退两难。中国在争取德国,而就在财政部长珍妮特·耶伦周四抵达北京谈判寻求经济共同基础的时候,美国却在力劝德国进一步远离北京。
 
哈威和其他德国中型企业如何有效应对这些新的全球力量对德国的未来繁荣至关重要。虽然德国在20世纪成为欧洲经济强国的成功往往体现于该国最大的品牌——如大众、梅赛德斯和西门子——但中小企业才是德国的经济支柱。
 
随着德国的社会经济秩序在现代化过程停滞,乃至全球政治关系破裂的重压下开始动摇,这些德语中被称为“Mittelstand”(中间等级)的中小型企业在创造未来模式方面也遇到了困难。
 
一些高管(比如霍伊斯根)正在接受变化,探索新战略、新市场。然而其他企业对放弃现有的模式持谨慎态度,几十年来,这个模式一直让德国蓬勃发展,但却难以改变。
这一矛盾甚至在哈威的工厂车间里也能感觉到。
 
“我就是看不出来,除了中国还有什么替代方案?”车间经理霍尔格·雷贝说。
 
哈威如何处理国际事务不只是其2700名员工关心的问题。德国一些城镇的经济也会受影响。
 
考夫博伊伦是坐落在阿尔卑斯山下的一座色彩斑斓的巴伐利亚小镇,哈威是它的最大雇主,给位于小镇以西100公里的萨森卡姆村提供250个工作岗位,那里的第二大雇主是当地一家有17名员工的啤酒厂。
“有时我真想我经营的是一家餐馆,不必关心全球政治,”德国哈威液压公司的经营者卡尔·霍伊斯根说。
"有时我真想我经营的是一家餐馆,不必关心全球政治,”德国哈威液压公司的经营者卡尔·霍伊斯根说。 
 
“好像我们成功了太长时间,”考夫博伊伦市市长斯特凡·博斯说,他很想把其他企业吸引来,以便使小镇依赖的雇主多元化。“现在,我们逐渐看到:‘呃——这不是理所当然的。这也可能受到威胁。”
 
典型的中小型企业总部设在德国的某个乡村小镇,生产的设备很少有人听说过,但对全球商品至关重要——比如每架飞机或乘用车都需要的螺丝。
 
一些研究,这些公司提供了德国的大部分经济产出。它们雇用了德国60%的工人,占德国私营部门的99%——这个比例比世界上任何工业化国家都高。
 
“德国的商业模式,尤其是中小型企业的商业模式,非常擅长做好一件事:慢慢地不断完善一种产品,”德国中小型企业协会发言人马蒂亚斯·比安奇说。“由于这种模式成功地运行了多年,中小型企业没有适应变化的需要。但现在,它们需要适应新的经济现实。”
 
即便近几十年来,技术革命和气候变化给社会带来压力,德国的模式仍在艰难地盈利。
但这个模式依赖的支柱——廉价的俄罗斯天然气和中国市场——正在消失。
 
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,迫使德国逐渐减少对曾为本国工业提供廉价电力的天然气的依赖。中国自力更生的努力意味着,一个曾似乎提供无止境增长的市场不仅不再那么有保障,而且成了竞争对手。
 
德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨联合政府承诺的国家社会经济转型已成为全国焦虑的来源。
哈威是位于阿尔卑斯山下的巴伐利亚小镇考夫博伊伦的主要雇主。
哈威是位于阿尔卑斯山下的巴伐利亚小镇考夫博伊伦的主要雇主。 
 
与德国的人口一样,德国的企业主和企业家们也在老龄化:中小型企业协会成员的平均年龄是55岁。有些人拒绝适应新技术,仍坚持以忠诚为基础的体系,这种体系让员工在企业工作一辈子,也为企业提供了永久客户。(哈威1949年的第一个客户是一家叉车生产商,至今仍在购买哈威的产品。)
 
德国政府在改变过时做法方面——比如迷宫般的、以文书工作为基础的官僚机构——也表现不佳。政府曾在2017年承诺,到2022年时,让575项最常用的服务(例如公司注册)实现数字化。比安奇说,截止日期过去已经一年,这些服务中只有22%可以在线上使用。
考夫博伊伦市市长斯特凡·博斯非常想将该镇依赖的企业类型多元化。
考夫博伊伦市市长斯特凡·博斯非常想将该镇依赖的企业类型多元化。
 
这些失败让企业对经济转型计划持谨慎态度。政府称,虽然现在需要为转型计划付出代价,但这将让德国成为多元化、数字化、净零排放的经济体。
 
“我们协会的公司目前还有没看到这点,”比安奇说。
 
分析公司Kantar周二发布的一项针对中小型企业的调查揭示了发人深省的统计数据:一半以上的受访企业不想在德国扩张,25%的企业正在考虑迁到其他地方去。
 
即使对像哈威这样的公司来说,地缘政治变化的速度也让人目瞪口呆。
 
普京的军队入侵乌克兰的第二天,哈威决定停止在俄罗斯的业务。做这个决定很容易,因为俄罗斯不是一个主要市场。
 
尽管如此,霍伊斯根说,此举仍然是一种震撼:“这是以前从未发生过的事情:由于一个政治事件,我们关闭了一家工厂。”
 
这个事件引发的焦虑仍然在哈威工厂的车间里挥之不去。
 
正在检查零件的玛丽塔·里斯纳说,她的取暖费用已从每月 120欧元(约合950元人民币)飙升到740欧元(约合5800元人民币)。随着国家陷入经济衰退,她和邻居们开始自己种菜,以缓解通货膨胀的痛苦。
 
“我以前对事情的看法都很积极,”她说。“但这些日子我觉得有点难熬。很多事情似乎都出了问题。”
在哈威工厂检查零件的玛丽塔·里斯纳担心通货膨胀,说自己的冬季供暖费用大增。
在哈威工厂检查零件的玛丽塔·里斯纳担心通货膨胀,说自己的冬季供暖费用大增。
 
霍斯根说,如果地缘政治事件扰乱了公司在中国的业务,后果可能是迫使哈威裁掉考夫博伊伦一半以上的工作岗位。他说,哈威目前有20%的业务来自中国。
 
近年来,一些商业团体已对德国面临与中国有关的巨大风险提出过警告,早在大力鼓励德中贸易的前总理默克尔的政府认真考虑它们之前。
 
今天,一些政策制定者私下里担心,地缘政治事件将给德国经济带来不可避免的灾难,比如中国攻击台湾。德国政府目前正在推动“去风险”,寻找替代中国贸易的办法。
 
政府打算在本月发布一份新的战略文件,概述德国与中国的关系将如何进展。预计政府将考虑德国的安全保障者美国所施加的压力——它希望德国疏远中国。
 
但大众汽车和巴斯夫等主要品牌坚持认为,中国是世界第二大经济体,中国市场非常重要,不能放弃。这些总部位于德国的跨国公司今年对中国的外国直接投资增长了20%。
 
德国官员表示,他们的战略是保持与中国的关系,但将通过加强与印度或越南等其他国家的关系来平衡其影响。
 
中小型企业也在做同样的事情:哈威正在印度大力投资,计划在那里建一座新工厂,还有一些公司将目光转向北美。
哈威液压公司向全球销售近2500种零件。
哈威液压公司向全球销售近2500种零件。
 
在考夫博伊伦,哈威的部门主管马库斯·舒斯特说,多元化带来了新挑战。
“过去我们的大部分销售来自中国的三个客户,”他说。“现在我们有许多、许多分布在全球各地的小客户。”
 
哈威需要尽快为各种各样的客户生产不同类型的零件,而不是尽量便宜地大规模生产几种零件。
 
他说,这意味着要找到办法削减成本,同时研发能灵活生产的自动化系统。他把一批正在进行复杂操作的机器人指给记者看,这些机器人在对金属部件进行钻孔和抛光。
 
霍伊斯根认为,与中国的贸易仍将是德国经济的一个支柱。他将继续和其他中小企业领导人一起去中国谈判解决商业分歧,修复关系。
 
德国的新的社会经济模式可能不是建立支柱,而是管理更复杂的国际平衡。
 
“在我看来,忍受和管理不确定性、以及处理复杂性的能力已成为一个核心优势,”霍斯根说。“我外公的做法在今天是行不通的。”

相关报道 

李强访德,中德关系走向何方  2023年6月19日  

青岛与德国基尔姐妹城市计划引发抗议  2023年5月11日 

德国企业逆势扩大在中国投资  2023年4月13日

德国阻止两笔涉中资交易  2022年11月10日

German Businesses Bet Big on China, and They’re Starting to Worry

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/business/yellen-china-companies-meetings.html?_ga=


Geopolitical risks have exposed long-ignored strains on Germany’s socioeconomic model. The family businesses underpinning its economy are seeking a new path.

 
Three men wearing red shirts on a brightly lit factory floor. Hawe Hydraulics, which employs around 2,700 people, has been operating in Kaufbeuren, Germany, for seven decades.Credit...Ingmar Nolting for The New York Times

Amid the ruins of a city ravaged by World War II, Karl Haeusgen’s grandfather invented a hydraulic pump he was so proud of that he founded a company to sell it. Back then, there were no revenue projections or five-year growth strategies. The plan was survival: “It was just about grabbing chances,” Mr. Haeusgen said.

Seven decades and three generations later the family business, Hawe Hydraulics, ships some 2,500 parts around the globe. Instead of scrambling for sales, though, Mr. Haeusgen must parse the geopolitics of an ever more polarized world.

“A third of my business, if not more, depends on how Biden and Xi get along,” he said. “I sometimes wish I ran a restaurant and didn’t have to care about global politics.”

With China and North America as Hawe’s biggest trade partners, Mr. Haeusgen doesn’t have that luxury. As tensions between Beijing and the West rise, Hawe officials are working to hedge the company’s dependence on the huge Chinese market.

Long a linchpin of Chinese trade in Europe, Germany is increasingly caught in the diplomatic tussle between the world’s two largest economies — wooed by China but urged by Washington to move further away from Beijing, even as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrives in China on Thursday for talks seeking common economic ground.

How Hawe and other midsize German companies navigate these new global forces will be critical to the country’s future prosperity. Though Germany’s 20th century success as the economic powerhouse of Europe is often seen through its biggest brands — like Volkswagen, Mercedes and Siemens — it is small and medium enterprises that are the backbone of its economy.

These companies, known in German as the “Mittelstand,” are struggling to create a model for the future, as the country’s socioeconomic order begins to falter under the weight of stalled modernization and ruptures in global politics.

Some executives like Mr. Haeusgen are embracing transformation, testing new strategies and markets. Other businesses, however, are wary of abandoning a model that for decades enabled Germany to thrive but defied change.

The tensions are felt even on Hawe’s factory floor.

“I just can’t see it. What’s the alternative to China?” said Holger Rebbe, a floor manager.

Hawe’s handling of international affairs is not just a concern for its 2,700 employees. The economies of some German towns depend on it.

In Kaufbeuren, a brightly painted Bavarian town nestled below the Alps, Hawe is a top employer. In the tiny village of Sachsenkam, 60 miles to the west, Hawe provides 250 jobs — the next largest employer is the local brewery, with a staff of 17.

“有时我真想我经营的是一家餐馆,不必关心全球政治,”德国哈威液压公司的经营者卡尔·霍伊斯根说。

“I sometimes wish I ran a restaurant and didn't have to care about global politics,” said Karl Haeusgen, who runs Hawe Hydraulics, based in Germany.Credit...Ingmar Nolting for The New York Times

“It’s like we were successful for too long,” said Stefan Bosse, the mayor of Kaufbeuren, who is keen to attract other businesses to diversify the employers his town relies on. “Now, gradually, we see: ‘Uh oh — this is not a given. This can also be endangered.’”

The archetypal Mittelstand company is based in a rural German town, making a piece of equipment few have heard of, but that is crucial for goods worldwide — like a screw needed for every airplane or passenger car.

These companies provide the majority of Germany’s economic output, according to some studies. They employ 60 percent of its workers, and make up 99 percent of its private sector — a higher percentage than in any industrialized nation in the world.

“The German business model, particularly Mittelstand, is being extremely good at doing one thing: Slowly but steadily perfecting one product,” said Mathias Bianchi, spokesman for the German Mittelstand Association. “Because that worked so well for years, they had no need to adapt to changes. But now, they need to adjust to the new economic reality.”

Even as the tech revolution and climate change added strain in recent decades, Germany’s model plodded profitably along.

But the pillars it relied on to do that — cheap Russian natural gas and the Chinese market — are collapsing.

Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine forced Germany to wean itself off the gas that provided its industry with cheap power. China’s drive toward self-reliance means a market that once seemed an unending source of growth is not only less assured, but a rival.

Staking out a socioeconomic transformation for the country, pledged by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, has become a source of national anxiety.

Hawe is a key employer in Kaufbeuren, a Bavarian town nestled below the Alps.Credit...Ingmar Nolting for The New York Times

Like its population, Germany’s business owners and entrepreneurs are aging — the average Mittelstand association member is 55.

Some are resistant to adapting to new technologies and cling to a loyalty-based system that created lifetime employees — and customers. (Hawe’s very first client in 1949, a forklift producer, still buys from it today.)

The government, too, has a poor record in shedding outdated practices — like its labyrinth, paperwork-based bureaucracy. In 2017, it vowed by 2022 to digitalize its 575 most used services, like company registrations. A year past that deadline, said Mr. Bianchi, only 22 percent of those services are online.

Stefan Bosse, mayor of Kaufbeuren, is keen to diversify the types of businesses his town relies on. Credit...Ingmar Nolting for The New York Times

Such failures makes businesses wary of transformation plans the government says will be costly now, but will make Germany a diversified, digitized and climate neutral economy.

“Our companies don’t see it at the moment,” Mr. Bianchi said.

survey of Mittelstand companies released Tuesday by the analytics firm Kantar showed a sobering statistic: Over half the companies polled did not want to expand in Germany, and a quarter were considering relocating.

Even among companies like Hawe, the pace of geopolitical shifts has been eye-opening.

The day after Vladimir V. Putin’s forces invaded Ukraine, Hawe decided to halt operations in Russia. It was an easy decision. Russia was not a major market.

Still, Mr. Haeusgen said, the move felt like a shock: “This was something that had never happened before — that, as the consequence of a political event, we closed down an operation.”

On the Hawe factory floor, the anxieties it sparked still linger.

Marita Riesner, inspecting parts, said her heating costs spiked to 740 euros ($803) a month from 120 euros ($130). She and her neighbors are growing vegetable gardens to ease the pain of inflation as the country dips into recession.

“I was a very positive thinker before,” she said. “But these days, I’m sweating it. It seems a lot is going wrong.”

Marita Riesner inspecting parts at Hawe's factory. She worries about inflation, saying her heating costs spiked over the winter.Credit...Ingmar Nolting for The New York Times

Should geopolitical events disrupt business with China, Mr. Haeusgen said, the consequences could eliminate more than half of Hawe’s jobs in Kaufbeuren. Currently, he said, 20 percent of Hawe’s business comes from China.

Some business groups raised alarm in recent years over Germany’s vast exposure to China — before the risks were taken seriously by former chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, which had heavily encouraged German-Chinese trade.

Today, some policymakers privately worry that an event like a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be an inescapable disaster for Germany’s economy. The government is now pushing “de-risking” by finding alternatives to trade with China.

Berlin plans to release a new strategy paper this month to outline how it will go forward with its relationship with China. It is expected to take into account pressure from Washington, Germany’s security guarantor, to move away from China.

But major brands like Volkswagen and BASF insist that China, as the world’s second-largest economy, is too important a market to give up. Such German-based multinationals are responsible for a 20 percent rise in foreign direct investment in China this year.

German officials say their strategy will maintain ties to China, but will counterbalance that by strengthening relationships with other nations, like India or Vietnam.

The Mittelstand is doing the same: Hawe is investing heavily in India, where it plans to build a new plant, and other companies are looking to North America.

Hawe Hydraulics, ships some 2,500 parts around the globeCredit...Ingmar Nolting for The New York Times

In Kaufbeuren, Hawe’s department head, Markus Schuster, says diversification brings new challenges.

“It used to be that we made a majority of sales with three customers from China,” he said. “Now we have many, many smaller customers scattered all over the globe.”

Instead of making a few parts at a huge scale, as cheaply as possible, Hawe must make a wide variety of parts for an array of customers, as quickly as possible.

That means finding cost cuts, while developing automatization systems to allow flexible production, he said. He pointed to a team of robots engaged in an intricate dance, drilling and polishing metal parts.

Mr. Haeusgen believes that trade with China will remain a cornerstone of Germany’s economy. And he will keep traveling to China with other Mittelstand leaders for talks to resolve business differences and repair ties.

The new socioeconomic model for Germany may be less about erecting pillars than managing an ever more intricate, international juggling act.

“Being able to live with and manage uncertainty and to handle complexity becomes, in my opinion, a core strength,” Mr. Haeusgen said. “The way my grandpa did it won’t work today.”

登录后才可评论.