中国新的全球领导力
作者：杰弗里·D·萨克斯 2014 年 11 月 29 日
问题文章
纽约—今年最大的经济新闻几乎是在不知不觉中传来的：根据国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的记分员的说法，中国已经超过美国，成为世界上最大的经济体。 而且，尽管中国的地缘政治地位及其经济实力正在迅速上升，但由于其政治和经济精英不受控制的贪婪以及中东自设的永久战争陷阱，美国继续浪费其全球领导地位。
据国际货币基金组织预测，2014年中国GDP将达到17.6万亿美元，超过美国的17.4万亿美元。 当然，由于中国人口是其四倍多，其人均GDP为12,900美元，仍不到美国54,700美元的四分之一，这凸显了美国的生活水平要高得多。
中国的崛起是重大的，但也意味着回归。 毕竟，中国自2000多年前成为统一国家以来一直是世界上人口最多的国家，因此它也是世界上最大的经济体也是有道理的。 事实上，有证据表明，直到 1889 年左右，中国（按购买力平价计算）比世界上任何其他经济体都大，当时美国超过了它。 125年后的今天，随着中国经济数十年的快速发展，排名再次发生逆转。
随着经济实力的增强，地缘政治影响力也随之增强。 中国领导人在世界各地受到招待。 许多欧洲国家将中国视为实现更强劲国内增长的关键。 非洲领导人将中国视为他们国家不可或缺的新增长伙伴，特别是在基础设施和商业发展方面。
同样，拉丁美洲的经济战略家和商界领袖现在对中国的期待至少与对美国的期待一样多。 经过一段时间的高度紧张之后，中国和日本似乎正在采取措施改善关系。 就连俄罗斯最近也向中国“倾斜”，在包括能源和运输在内的许多方面建立了更牢固的联系。
与二战后的美国一样，中国正在投入大量资金，与世界各国建立牢固的经济和基础设施联系。 这将使其他国家能够促进自身增长，同时巩固中国的全球经济和地缘政治领导地位。
中国的倡议数量惊人。 就在过去一年，中国启动了四个重大项目，有望大大扩大其在全球贸易和金融中的作用。 中国与俄罗斯、巴西、印度和南非一起建立了新开发银行，总部设在上海。 新的亚洲基础设施投资银行将设在北京，将帮助为整个地区的基础设施项目（道路、电力和铁路等）提供资金。 新丝绸之路陆路带旨在通过扩大的铁路、公路、电力、光纤和其他网络，将中国与东亚、南亚、中亚和欧洲的经济体连接起来。 新的21世纪海上丝绸之路旨在促进东亚和印度洋的海洋贸易。
总而言之，这些举措可能会在未来十年带动数千亿美元的投资，加速对方国家的增长，同时加深其与中国的生产、贸易和金融联系。
无法保证所有这一切都会成功或顺利进行。 中国面临着巨大的内部挑战，包括严重且不断加剧的收入不平等、大规模的空气和水污染、转向低碳经济的需要，以及困扰美国和欧洲的金融市场不稳定风险。 如果中国对其邻国变得过于咄咄逼人 — — 例如，要求获得近海石油或争议水域领土的权利 — — 将会引发严重的外交反弹。 任何人都不应该假设中国（或世界任何其他地区）在未来几年一帆风顺。
然而，令人震惊的是，就在中国经济和地缘政治崛起之际，美国似乎正在千方百计地浪费自己的经济、技术和地缘政治优势。 美国的政治体系已被富有精英的贪婪所俘获，他们的狭隘目标是降低企业和个人税率，最大化其庞大的个人财富，并削弱美国在全球经济发展中的建设性领导作用。 他们如此蔑视美国的对外援助，以至于为中国在发展融资领域新的全球领导地位敞开了大门。
更糟糕的是，在中国展示地缘政治力量的同时，美国系统性地奉行的唯一外交政策就是在中东不断发动毫无结果的战争。 美国在叙利亚和伊拉克无休止地消耗其资源和能源，就像它曾经在越南所做的那样。 与此同时，中国避免卷入海外军事灾难，而是强调双赢的经济举措。
如果中国领导人强调对基础设施、清洁能源、公共卫生和其他国际优先事项的投资，中国的经济崛起可以为全球福祉做出贡献。 尽管如此，如果美国也继续与中国一起发挥建设性领导作用，世界将会变得更好。 巴拉克·奥巴马总统和习近平最近宣布的有关气候变化和清洁能源的双边协议显示了可能实现的最好结果。 美国在中东的无休无止的战争表明了最糟糕的情况。
China's New Global Leadership
by Jeffrey D. Sachs Nov 29 2014
IN QUESTO ARTICOLO
NEW YORK – The biggest economic news of the year came almost without notice: China has overtaken the United States as the world's largest economy, according to the scorekeepers at the International Monetary Fund. And, while China's geopolitical status is rising rapidly, alongside its economic might, the US continues to squander its global leadership, owing to the unchecked greed of its political and economic elites and the self-made trap of perpetual war in the Middle East.
According to the IMF, China's GDP will be $17.6 trillion in 2014, outstripping US output of $17.4 trillion. Of course, because China's population is more than four times larger, its per capita GDP, at $12,900, is still less than a quarter of the $54,700 recorded in the US, which highlights America's much higher living standards.
China's rise is momentous, but it also signifies a return. After all, China has been the world's most populous country since it became a unified state more than 2,000 years ago, so it makes sense that it would also be the world's largest economy. And, indeed, the evidence suggests that China was larger (in terms of purchasing power parity) than any other economy in the world until around 1889, when the US eclipsed it. Now, 125 years later, the rankings have reversed again, following decades of rapid economic development in China.
With rising economic power has come growing geopolitical clout. Chinese leaders are feted around the world. Many European countries are looking to China as the key to stronger domestic growth. African leaders view China as their countries' new indispensable growth partner, particularly in infrastructure and business development.
Similarly, economic strategists and business leaders in Latin America now look to China at least as much as they look to the US. China and Japan seem to be taking steps toward better relations, after a period of high tensions. Even Russia has recently “tilted” toward China, establishing stronger connections on many fronts, including energy and transport.
Like the US after World War II, China is putting real money on the table – a lot of it – to build strong economic and infrastructure links with countries around the world. This will enable other countries to boost their own growth, while cementing China's global economic and geopolitical leadership.
The number of Chinese initiatives is staggering. In just the past year, China has launched four major projects that promise to give it a greatly expanded role in global trade and finance. China joined Russia, Brazil, India, and South Africa in establishing the New Development Bank, to be based in Shanghai. A new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, to be based in Beijing, will help to fund infrastructure projects (roads, power, and rail, among others) throughout the region. The New Silk Road land belt seeks to connect China with the economies of East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, and Europe through an expanded grid of rail, highways, power, fiber, and other networks. And the new 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is aimed at boosting ocean-based trade in East Asia and the Indian Ocean.
All told, these various initiatives are likely to leverage hundreds of billions of dollars in investment over the coming decade, speeding growth in the counterpart countries while deepening their production, trade, and financial linkages with China.
There is no guarantee that all of this will succeed or proceed smoothly. China faces huge internal challenges, including high and rising income inequality, massive air and water pollution, the need to move to a low-carbon economy, and the same risks of financial-market instabilities that bedevil the US and Europe. And if China becomes too aggressive toward its neighbors – for example, by demanding rights to offshore oil or territory in disputed waters – it will generate a serious diplomatic backlash. No one should assume smooth sailing for China (or for any other part of the world, for that matter) in the years ahead.
Still, it is striking that just as China is rising economically and geopolitically, the US seems to be doing everything possible to waste its own economic, technological, and geopolitical advantages. The US political system has been captured by the greed of its wealthy elites, whose narrow goals are to cut corporate and personal tax rates, maximize their vast personal fortunes, and curtail constructive US leadership in global economic development. They so scorn US foreign assistance that they have thrown open the doors to China's new global leadership in development financing.
Even worse, as China flexes its geopolitical muscles, the only foreign policy that the US systematically pursues is unceasing and fruitless war in the Middle East. The US endlessly drains its resources and energy in Syria and Iraq in the same way that it once did in Vietnam. China, meanwhile, has avoided becoming enmeshed in overseas military debacles, emphasizing win-win economic initiatives instead.
China's economic rise can contribute to global wellbeing if its leaders emphasize investment in infrastructure, clean energy, public health, and other international priorities. Still, the world would be better off if the US also continued to lead constructively, alongside China. The recent announcement by Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping of bilateral agreements on climate change and clean energy show the best of what's possible. America's perpetual war-making in the Middle East shows the worst.
