世界工业化国家经济增长60年下降趋势
https://doi.org/10.1080/2329194X.2023.2214594
艾伦·弗里曼
2023年5月11日收稿，2023年5月11日接受，在线发布：2023年6月1日， CrossMark
这份报告利用一系列权威来源的数据，研究了工业化北方国家战后的长期经济增长，并表明，至少自 20 世纪 60 年代初以来，经济增长一直在持续下降，只有短暂和有限的中断。这一趋势极其强劲，所有北方主要经济体无一例外。它得到了购买力平价 (PPP) 和一系列标准实际 GDP 衡量标准、各种增长率权重以及不同国家的各种汇总的证实。新兴工业化国家在经历了早期的高增长之后，在1997年亚洲金融危机之后，加入了其他工业化国家的大趋势，这是一个极为印证的历史趋势。最近的数据显示，没有证据表明新冠疫情后出现任何逆转。这些结果让人们对当前世界经济的困难有了新的认识，并具有许多意义。它们与任何一种观点相冲突，即即使在主流文献中也越来越多地提到“长期停滞”，它起源于最近的一些动荡，例如2008年的经济崩溃，或者是新自由主义等假定的新积累制度的发生或产生的问题。或金融化。事实上，当前危机的根源在于一个漫长的历史过程，这个过程很快就进入了战后扩张的“黄金时代”。
关键词： 发展经济史增长
致谢
我要感谢 Nobuharu Yokokawa、Robert Wade、Radhika Desai 的热情支持以及两位匿名审稿人的评论。所有错误都是我自己造成的。
笔记
1 “工业化国家”和“全球北方”等术语的定义见第 7 节“北方的定义”。
2 请参阅本文末尾的数据定义部分。
3 有关这些内容的更详细讨论，请参见 Freeman (Citation2016)。
4 澳大利亚、比利时、加拿大、丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、意大利、日本、荷兰、挪威、葡萄牙、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士、英国和美国。
5 该 PPP 美元的几种不同衡量标准得到维护和公布。在第 4 节“增长的替代衡量标准：购买力平价和麦迪逊统计数据”中，我们比较了结果，表明我们的定性结论得到了所有这些变体的证实。
6 我们在本文中使用了四期移动平均线，大约是战后商业周期平均长度的一半。
7 “Hodrick-Prescott 滤波器”是一种数据平滑技术，对于生成整洁的趋势图形说明非常有用，并且广泛用于辅助呈现具有周期性波动的数据。然而，它必须谨慎使用，并且不推荐将其用作统计分析工具（Hamilton Citation2007）。
The 60-year downward trend of economic growth in the industrialized countries of the world
https://doi.org/10.1080/2329194X.2023.2214594
Alan Freeman
Received 11 May 2023, Accepted 11 May 2023, Published online: 01 Jun 2023， CrossMark
This report, using data from a range of authoritative sources, studies the long-term postwar economic growth of the industrialised North and shows that this has fallen continuously, with only brief and limited interruptions, since at least the early 1960s. The trend is extremely strong and includes all major Northern economies without exception. It is confirmed by both Purchasing-Power-Parity (PPP) and a range of standard real GDP measures, by a variety of weightings of the growth rates, and a variety of aggregations of different countries. The Newly-Industrialised Countries (NICS), after early high growth rates, joined the general trend of other industrialised countrieds after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. It is thus an extremely well-confirmed historical trend. Recent data show no evidence of any post-COVID reversal. These results sheds new light on the current difficulties of the world economy and have many implications. They conflict with any idea that Secular Stagnation as it is increasingly referred to even in mainstream literature, originates in some recent upset such as the 2008 crash, or in the incidence of, or problems created by, a putative new régime of accumulation such as neoliberalism or financialisation. In fact, the roots of the present crisis lie in a long historical process which set in very shortly into the ‘Golden Age’ of postwar expansion.
Keywords: Developmenteconomic historygrowth
Acknowledgments
I would like to acknowledge the kind support of Nobuharu Yokokawa, Robert Wade, Radhika Desai, and the comments of two anonymous referees. All errors are my own.
Notes
1 The terms “industrialised countries” and “global North” are defined in Section 7 “The definition of the North.”
2 See the data definitions section at the end of this article.
3 See Freeman (Citation2016) for a more detailed discussion of these.
4 Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States.
5 Several different measures of this PPP dollar are maintained and published. In Section 4 “Alternative measures of growth: PPP and the Maddison statistics,” we compare the results, showing that our qualitative conclusions are confirmed by all such variants.
6 We have used a four-period moving average throughout this article, being approximately half the average length of the postwar business cycle.
7 The “Hodrick-Prescott filter” is a data smoothing technique which is very useful for producing uncluttered graphical illustrations of trends, and it is widely used as an aid in presenting data with cyclic fluctuations. However it has to be used with care and its use as a tool of statistical analysis is deprecated (Hamilton Citation2007).
