特朗普的贸易战如何迅速失控

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/13/economy/trade-wars-can-spiral-out-of-control/index.html

Matt Egan CNN 2025 年 3 月 13 日

纽约 CNN — 贸易战始于关税，但贸易战正迅速升级，不再仅限于进口税，而是一场更广泛的针锋相对的战斗。

唐纳德·特朗普总统对加拿大征收 25% 的关税，激怒了那里的领导人，以至于安大略省反击，将美国酒从商店货架上撤下。

安大略省省长道格·福特甚至威胁要对美国三个州的电力征收附加费，甚至切断电力供应，这引发了电费飙升甚至停电的担忧。

这让特朗普非常愤怒，他一度发誓要对所有从加拿大进口的钢铁和铝征收 50% 的关税，但后来冷静下来了。

但周四，特朗普告诉记者：“我不会在加拿大铝、钢铁和汽车关税问题上让步。” 他的言论是在美国和加拿大官员就贸易问题举行会谈的几个小时前发表的。

福特在会谈结束后告诉记者，这次会谈“非常、非常富有成效”，并补充说他觉得“气氛正在降温”。福特表示，他计划下周再次会见美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克。

与此同时，世界贸易组织 (WTO) 在周四的一份声明中表示，加拿大已请求就美国对钢铁和铝征收的关税与世界贸易组织 (WTO) 进行磋商。加拿大声称这些关税违反了贸易规则。

很容易看出这场贸易战很快就会失控。如果世界领导人不小心，他们可能会陷入难以逃脱的升级循环。

“这场游戏已经蔓延到其他领域，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员玛丽·洛夫利说。

“我当然会回应”

这不仅仅是美加贸易战。

中国对特朗普 2 月份最初提高 10% 的关税做出了回应，宣布了报复性关税以及新的出口管制，并将 Calvin Klein 所有者 PVH 集团列入政府黑名单。

欧盟周三对特朗普的钢铁和铝关税进行了反击，将矛头指向美国牛仔裤、船只和威士忌，这让美国酒业大为沮丧。

当被问及欧盟的报复性关税时，特朗普说：“我当然会回应。”

然后他真的这么做了。

特朗普周四威胁要对葡萄酒、香槟和其他欧洲酒类征收高达 200% 的关税。

换句话说，特朗普对欧盟对特朗普关税的报复进行了报复。

如果欧盟对此进行报复怎么办？

关税是“特朗普版的 Windex”

贸易战升级让投资者、首席执行官和经济学家感到震惊——更不用说越来越多的美国公众了。

“这会失控吗？”无党派宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院教授肯特·斯迈特斯在接受 CNN 采访时说。

斯迈特斯是特朗普毕业的宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院教授，??他认为美国经济今年是否陷入衰退“还难以预料”。

贸易战的扩大在某种程度上是可以预见的。

毕竟，特朗普正在将关税这一贸易工具应用于与贸易无关的领域，例如移民、芬太尼和保护美元的主导地位。特朗普甚至提出使用关税来向俄罗斯施压，迫使其达成和平协议。

“这是唐纳德·特朗普的 Windex。他把它喷在一切东西上，”洛夫利说，他将总统对关税的热爱比作《我的盛大希腊婚礼》中那个认为 Windex 可以解决任何问题的父亲。“我们对商业政策停留在商业政策范围内的任何限制都消失了。但我不得不说，在这种情况下，是美国挑起了这场战争。”

贸易战可能进一步升温

特朗普已暗示他不会很快结束这场战争。

尽管华尔街的反对声越来越大，但特朗普仍威胁要征收一系列额外关税，包括定于 4 月 2 日征收的对等关税。这些迫在眉睫的关税，如果继续实施，可能会引发进一步的报复。

“过去几周提醒我们，贸易是情绪化的。各国可能会把事情看得太个人化。如今，涉及到大人物，”乔治梅森大学梅卡图斯中心高级研究员、前乔治·W·布什总统的贸易官员克里斯汀·麦克丹尼尔说。

福特是一位加拿大政客，他曾威胁要切断美国电力供应，并曾短暂对电力出口征收 25% 的附加税，如今他已成为特朗普贸易政策的强烈反对者。

另一方面，墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆采取了不同的做法。谢因鲍姆周三表示，墨西哥将等到 4 月 2 日才会对特朗普的关税作出回应。

所有这些都增加了投资者和商界领袖面临的不确定性。

“人类行为很难建模和预测。贸易经济学家在过去 30 年里做得相当轻松。但我们没有针对这个新世界的模型，”麦克丹尼尔说。

高管层发出警报

越来越多的人

美国企业对贸易战后果的担忧。

商业圆桌会议周三表示，其首席执行官经济前景指数已经黯淡，首席执行官们削减了招聘和投资计划。

根据耶鲁大学首席执行官领导力研究所首席执行官核心小组对大约 100 名美国主要首席执行官进行的一次非正式调查，绝大多数（85%）的首席执行官反对特朗普的贸易方式。

耶鲁大学活动于周二在华盛顿举行，摩根大通、辉瑞、美国航空和其他公司的首席执行官参加了此次活动，调查显示，94% 的受访首席执行官担心关税会导致通货膨胀，85% 的首席执行官认为特朗普的关税适得其反。

耶鲁大学首席执行官领导力研究所创始人杰弗里·索南菲尔德告诉 CNN，商界领袖普遍认为有理由选择性地征收关税。但索南菲尔德表示，首席执行官们对政府为特朗普关税提供的不断变化的理由感到“愤怒”。

“对盟友而非对手和竞争对手的全面攻击让首席执行官们感到沮丧和尴尬，”索南菲尔德在一封电子邮件中表示。

当然，现在还不知道贸易战将如何发展——以及最终将对经济和金融市场产生什么影响。

外国领导人可能不愿意继续升级周期，以免进一步损害当地经济。

“他们明白关税不利于他们的经济。这可能是针锋相对的自然突破，”洛夫利说。

如果美国经济开始真正疲软，或者华尔街发脾气，特朗普也有可能被迫减少关税压力。

麻省理工学院全球经济与管理集团负责人西蒙·约翰逊在一封电子邮件中告诉 CNN：“总统处境艰难，每征收一次关税（或威胁征收关税）都会让他的处境更加艰??难。” “如果他继续朝这个方向发展，物价将会上涨，经济将进一步放缓。”

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How Trump's trade war could quickly spiral out of control

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/13/economy/trade-wars-can-spiral-out-of-control/index.html

Analysis by Matt Egan, CNN March 13, 2025

New YorkCNN —

It started with tariffs, but the trade war is quickly escalating beyond import taxes into a broader tit-for-tat battle.

President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada offended leaders there to the point that Ontario fired back by yanking American booze from store shelves.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford even threatened to slap a surcharge on or even pull the plug on electricity sent to three US states, raising the specter of power bill spikes or even blackouts.

That angered Trump so much that he briefly vowed to hit all US imports of Canadian steel and aluminum with 50% tariffs, before cooler heads prevailed.

But on Thursday, Trump told reporters: “I’m not going to bend at all” on Canadian aluminum, steel and auto tariffs. His remarks came just hours ahead of a meeting between US and Canadian officials on trade.

That meeting was “very, very productive,” Ford told reporters after it ended, adding that he felt that “the temperature is being lowered.” Ford said he plans to meet again with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick next week.

Meanwhile, Canada has requested consultation with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over US tariffs on steel and aluminum, the WTO said in a statement on Thursday. Canada claims the tariffs violate trade rules.

It’s easy to see how this trade war can quickly get out of hand. If world leaders aren’t careful, they can get stuck in an escalatory cycle that’s hard to escape.

“This game has exploded into other areas,” said Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

‘Of course I will respond’

It’s not just the US-Canada trade fight.

China responded to Trump’s initial 10% tariff hike in February by announcing retaliatory tariffs as well as new export controls and by adding Calvin Klein owner PVH Group to a government blacklist.

The European Union on Wednesday fired back at Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs by taking aim at American jeans, boats and whiskey, much to the dismay of the US liquor industry.

Asked about the retaliatory EU tariffs, Trump said: “Of course I will respond.”

And then he did.

Trump on Thursday threatened a massive tariff — 200% — on wine, champagne and other European alcohol.

In other words, Trump has retaliated against the EU’s retaliation to Trump’s tariffs.

What if the EU retaliates to that?

Tariffs are ‘Trump’s Windex’

The trade war escalation has alarmed investors, CEOs and economists — not to mention a growing chunk of the American public.

“Is this going to spiral out of control?” Kent Smetters, faculty director of the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Model, told CNN in an interview.

Smetters, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, where Trump graduated from, now thinks it’s a “toss-up” whether the US economy stumbles into a recession this year.

The broadening out of the trade war was somewhat predictable.

After all, Trump is applying tariffs, a trade tool, to areas unrelated to trade such as immigration, fentanyl and protecting the dominance of the US dollar. Trump has even floated the use of tariffs to pressure Russia into a peace deal.

“This is Donald Trump’s Windex. He sprays it on everything,” Lovely said, likening the president’s love of tariffs to the dad in “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” who thinks Windex can solve any problem. “Any restraint we had over commercial policy staying in the commercial policy lane is gone. But I do have to say that in this case, the US started it.”

Trade war could heat up further

And Trump has signaled he’s not ending it anytime soon.

Despite growing pushback from Wall Street, Trump has threatened a wide range of additional tariffs, including reciprocal tariffs scheduled for April 2. Those looming tariffs, if they move forward, could trigger further retaliation.

“The last few weeks have reminded us that trade is emotional. Countries can take things personally. And there are big personalities involved these days,” said Christine McDaniel, senior research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center and a former trade official under President George W. Bush.

Ford, the Canadian politician who threatened to shut off US electricity and briefly slapped a 25% surcharge on electricity exports, has emerged as a particularly vocal opponent of Trump’s trade policy.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, on the other hand, has taken a different approach. Sheinbaum said Wednesday that her country would wait until April 2 before responding to Trump’s tariffs.

All of this is just adding to the uncertainty facing investors and business leaders.

“Human behavior is very difficult to model and predict. Trade economists had it pretty easy for 30 years. But we don’t have models for this new world,” said McDaniel.

Alarm in the C-Suite

There is growing concern in Corporate America about the fallout of the trade war.

The Business Roundtable said Wednesday that its CEO Economic Outlook Index has dimmed and CEOs have cut their plans to hire and invest.

The vast majority (85%) of CEOs oppose Trump’s approach to trade, according to a straw poll of roughly 100 major US CEOs at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute CEO Caucus.

The Yale event, held in Washington on Tuesday and featuring the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase, Pfizer, American Airlines and other firms, revealed that 94% of CEOs polled are worried tariffs will be inflationary and 85% believe Trump’s tariffs are backfiring.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, founder of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, told CNN that business leaders universally believe there are legitimate reasons to apply tariffs selectively. But Sonnenfeld said CEOs are “angry” over the shifting justifications offered by the administration for Trump’s tariffs.

“The broad-sweeping assault on allies instead of adversarial and rival nations has CEOs dismayed and embarrassed,” Sonnenfeld said in an email.

Of course, it’s too early to know how the trade war will evolve — and what the ultimate impact will be on the economy and financial markets.

Foreign leaders may be reluctant to continue the escalatory cycle so as not to further damage their local economies.

“They understand tariffs are bad for their economies. That could be a natural break in this tit-for-tat,” said Lovely.

It’s also possible that Trump is forced to dial back the tariff pressure if the US economy starts to really weaken or if Wall Street throws an even bigger temper tantrum.

“The president is in a tight spot, and every tariff (or threatened tariff) makes his position more difficult,” Simon Johnson, head of MIT’s Global Economics and Management group, told CNN in an email. “If he keeps going in this direction, prices will rise and the economy will slow even further.”