华尔街：让我如何说出我爱你？
这是今天11/14/2006盘后Yahoo.com finance category http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update的实时update。看到关于HD ER后的交易表现，有这么一句"That was eventually put to rest as it became apparent that much of the bad news may have already been priced into the stock."，不知这个"apparent"是怎么来的？
想起了Livermore的一句话“投机象山岳一样古老，华尔街没有新东西”。也想起了圣经传道书所说“太阳底下没有新鲜事。现在有的，从前就存在。将来有的，现在也存在。有什么东西，人们可以说，看，这是新的？”
华尔街，让我如何说出我爱你？
4:20 pm : After middling around the flat line throughout most of the session, a technical bounce late in the day vaulted stocks to their best levels of the session.
What was shaping up to be a rather lackluster session amid a tug-o-war about whether or not today's economic data suggested a soft or hard landing for the economy turned out favorably for the bulls when the S&P 500 broke through its six-year high of 1389 around 2:45 ET. Eclipsing that technical barrier, on no specific news, prompted a surge in buy orders for the S&P 500 futures contract, which in turn lit a fire under stocks across the board. In fact, all three of the major indices initially surging higher and logging roughly the same percentage gains lent further evidence that program trading was behind the late-day rally.
Of the nine sectors trading higher, Consumer Discretionary and Technology turned in the best performances, each surging 1.1%. As the second most influential sector, Tech's advance provided the bulk of leadership, as evidenced by the Nasdaq outpacing its blue chip counterparts to the upside. Intel Corp (INTC 21.86 +0.86) more than doubled yesterday's impressive 2.0% advance amid more upbeat analyst commentary and the early rollout of its new quad-core processors. Intel is a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio.
Also helping the Dow close at a new all-time high was discretionary component Home Depot (HD 37.26 +0.86). The stock was down as much as 1.7% after it missed expectations and cut its full-year outlook, renewing concerns about the impact a weak housing market is having on the overall economy. That was eventually put to rest as it became apparent that much of the bad news may have already been priced into the stock. Also mitigating some of the housing worries was DR Horton (DHI 24.11 +1.73), which soared 9.3% after handily topping Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Homebuilding was today's best performing S&P industry group.
The discretionary sector was actually in focus before the market even opened as investors waited to get an update about the health of the consumer and inflation. The Commerce Dept. showed that retail sales fell a less than expected 0.2% in October. More notably, retail sales, excluding a drop in gasoline sales - which is good for the economy - rose 0.4%.
That was consistent with a moderate upward trend in consumer spending that was also evidenced by a batch of better than expected earnings reports from a plethora of retailers. Wal-Mart (WMT 47.66 +1.34) beat by a penny while Target (TGT 59.16 +1.40), BJ's Wholesale (BJ 29.69 +1.08), Saks (SKS 20.40 +0.51) and Dillard's (DDS 35.59 +6.38) also topped expectations.
With policy makers focused on inflation risks, a surprising drop in the October core-PPI that showed inflationary pressures at the wholesale level remain contained provided additional support. To wit, bond traders began pricing in a possible Fed easing, pushing the yield on the 10-year note (+12/32) to a seven-month low (4.56%). Core-PPI unexpectedly fell 0.9%, the biggest decline since August 1993, while total PPI plunged 1.6%, matching the steepest decline on record. DJ30 +86.13 NASDAQ +24.29 SP500 +8.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1017/2039/1.97 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 883/2388/1.71 bln
3:30 pm : Onward and upward remains the driving mantra over the last 45 minutes of trading as short sellers continue to run for cover. Of the nine sectors now in positive territory, Consumer Discretionary leads the way with a 1.0% gain with Technology fresh on its heals up 0.9%. The only sector failing to participate in this afternoon's rally is Materials, as evidenced by Gold (-1.5%) and Diversified Metals & Mining (-1.1%) turning in some of today's worst performances. DJ30 +79.24 NASDAQ +16.24 SP500 +7.57 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1209/1807/1.55 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 942/2297/1.33 bln
3:00 pm : The major averages spike to session highs within the last 30 minutes. Since no specific news can be attributed to the renewed wave of buying interest, it looks as though some big buy programs are behind the recent surge. To wit, the S&P 500 recently broke through a crucial level of technical resistance at the 1389 level. The Dow is now above its all-time closing high after breaking through resistance at 12,190.DJ30 +70.20 NASDAQ +13.22 SP500 +7.39 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1384/1616/1.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1313/1905/1.16 bln
2:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as all three indices continue to fluctuate around the flat line. Meanwhile, oil prices have recently spiked to session lows near $58/bbl, perhaps amid details coming from the Big Three autos about their push for the continued development and use of renewable fuels as part of lessening America's dependence on imported oil. Per usual though, the commodity's reversal has had an adverse effect on Energy, pushing the sector back into the red and removing some notable leadership. GM, Ford and Chrsyler just wrapped up a meeting with President Bush aimed at improving the competitiveness of U.S. auto makers. DJ30 +2.32 NASDAQ +1.16 SP500 +0.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1528/1445/1.24 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1376/1823/1.05 bln
2:00 pm : The indices continue to edge higher as the Dow now joins the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to the upside. Home Depot (HD 37.26 +0.86), which was down as much as 1.7% after missing expectations is now up 2.4% as it becomes apparent that much of the bad news may have already priced into the stock. Intel (INTC 21.50 +0.50) is also up 2.4%, which is only being eclipsed by a 3.0% surge in Wal-Mart (WMT 47.72 +1.40) shares. Sixteen of 30 Dow components are now in the green. DJ30 +4.16 NASDAQ +2.04 SP500 +0.39 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1581/1389/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1334/1850/956 mln
1:30 pm : The market continues to trim its morning losses as the S&P 500 becomes the latest among the majors to inch above the unchanged mark. However, with the broader market's improvement being tied in part to a turnaround in the Energy sector, the subsequent rise in oil prices behind renewed interest in Oil & Gas Equipment stocks (e.g. SLB +1.3%, BHI +1.3%, BJS 2.5%) is also acting as somewhat of an offset. ..OSX +0.7%. ..OIH +0.8%.DJ30 -2.12 NASDAQ +3.69 SP500 +0.09 XOI +0.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1599/1356/1.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1391/1783/866 mln
1:00 pm : Buyers return from the sidelines within the last 15 minutes as the indices are back to trading in split fashion. Current recovery efforts can best be attributed to turnarounds in some influential sectors, in particular, Technology. To wit, the Nasdaq has inched back above the flat line as momentum continues to improve in semiconductors (SOX +0.5%) and hardware (HWI +0.9%). Another sector turning positive has been Consumer Discretionary, as retailers (RLX +1.1%) get some assistance from a turnaround in Home Depot (HD 36.70 +0.30) while homebuilders (HGX +2.0%) get a boost after DR Horton (DHI 24.11 +1.73) handily topped expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Health Care has also turned the corner as upside FY07 EPS guidance from Express Scripts (ESRX 68.05 +2.09) earmarks Healthcare Services (+1.8%) as one of today's best performers.DJ30 -13.61 NASDAQ +0.65 SP500 -1.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1727/1228/922 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1525/1615/782 mln
12:30 pm : Not much has changed since the last update as the market's modest weakness carries over into the afternoon session. While the market continues to trade in a relatively narrow range, it is also worth noting that all three indices declining in synch with each other and logging roughly the same percentage losses (-0.3%) suggest that program trading is behind today's broad-based consolidation efforts.DJ30 -36.10 NASDAQ -6.09 SP500 -3.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1706/1216/826 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1557/1557/694 mln
12:00 pm : Stocks are still struggling to revisit early market gains buoyed by more evidence that the economy is on track for a soft landing.
With policy makers focused on inflation risks, a surprising drop in the October core-PPI showed that inflationary pressures at the wholesale level remain contained, renewing hopes of the Fed cutting interest rates early next year. To wit, bond traders are back to pricing in such a scenario, pushing the yield on the 10-year note (+12/32) to a seven-month low (4.56%). Core-PPI unexpectedly fell 0.9%, the biggest decline since August 1993, while total PPI plunged 1.6%, matching the steepest decline on record.
Also out before the bell was an update on the health of the consumer. Retail sales fell a less than expected 0.2% in October while retail sales, excluding a drop in gasoline sales, which is good for the economy, rose 0.4%. That is consistent with a moderate upward trend in consumer spending.
Be that as it may, given the market's preoccupation with the pace of economic growth, concerns that today's data also suggest the U.S. economy is slowing faster than anticipated have taken the mat out from under early buying efforts.
Also leaving buyers a bit hesitant to extend recent gains have been a batch of mixed earnings reports in the retail space. Wal-Mart (WMT 47.25 +0.93) beat by a penny while Target (TGT 58.08 +0.32), BJ's Wholesale (BJ 30.00 +1.39), Saks (SKS 20.24 +0.35) and Dillard's (DDS 34.06 +4.85) also topped expectations. Home Depot (HD 36.14 -0.26), however, missed expectations and cut its full-year outlook, renewing worries about the impact of a weak housing market on the overall economy.
Of the 10 sectors now trading lower, though, Telecom (-0.9%) is pacing the way to the downside following an analyst downgrade on Sprint Nextel (S 20.07 -0.43) based on valuation. In fact, today's negative disposition is also being driven by a burgeoning sense that the market is overbought on a short-term basis, leaving the valuations of stocks across several sectors in question. As a reminder, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 3.6%, 3.4%, and 6.3%, respectively, just six weeks into Q4, already surpassing the impressive gains witnessed in Q3. BTK -1.1% DJ30 -36.12 DJTA -1.1% DJUA -0.3% DOT -0.2% NASDAQ -5.92 NQ100 -0.3% R2K -0.1% SOX +0.1% SP400 -0.2% SP500 -3.63 XOI -0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1737/1139/742 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1492/1585/620 mln
11:30 am : The market continues to pare its losses but selling remains widespread across most areas. Even with oil prices briefly turning negative, transportation stocks are still among today's biggest laggards. To wit, Railroads (-1.9%) ranks as today's third worst performing S&P industry group after Norfolk Southern (NSC 50.66 -2.02) said it sees "challenges" in its Q4 intermodal business and foresees "mixed business conditions" in 2006 and 2007. This morning's biggest disappointment, though, is Electronic Equipment Manufacturing (-4.6%). Agilent Technologies (A 32.60 -2.40) missing analysts' Q4 expectations has prompted investors to consolidate nearly one third of the 22% advance the stock has made since the company reported Q3 results in August.DJ30 -30.18 DJTA -1.0% NASDAQ -5.71 SP500 -2.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1766/1070/620 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1552/1479/512 mln
11:00 am : Major averages bounce off their morning lows but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings. It is worth noting that overall market breadth remains mixed, suggesting the broader market is being dragged lower primarily by a group of larger-cap names. After all, advancers on the NYSE still hold a slight edge (15 to 14) over decliners. The same cannot be said for the Nasdaq, though, where decliners outpace advancers by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. DJ30 -36.98 NASDAQ -6.97 SP500 -3.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1795/963/504 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1461/1530/404 mln
10:30 am : The indices spike lower within the last 30 minutes as industry leadership continues to deteriorate. Energy's inability to maintain early gains even as oil prices continue to climb is noteworthy as is a recent reversal in tech bellwether Apple Computer (AAPL 84.14 -0.21). Meanwhile, despite Wal-Mart (WMT 47.63 +1.31) warning that Q4 profits might miss analysts' forecasts due largely to launching its "most aggressive pricing strategy ever," shares are surging 2.8% after Q3 earnings checked in better than expected amid improved margins. That in turn is helping Consumer Staples cling to a small gain, but even as the best performer on the Dow this morning, WMT is one of only 11 components trading higher while Staples is now the only sector in the green.DJ30 -41.78 NASDAQ -11.32 SP500 -5.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1653/1021/352 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1209/1685/256 mln
10:00 am : Early market gains are short-lived as the lack of conviction on the part of buyers leaves the door open for sellers to step back in following two days of market gains. To wit, of the eight sectors posting gains just 10 minutes ago, Energy led the way with a small 0.3% advance while Financials, Tech, and Health Care were posting gains of less than 0.1%. Now, however, the latter three sectors have slipped into the red, removing what little leadership the major indices were enjoying at the onset of trading. DJ30 -4.56 NASDAQ -3.81 SP500 -0.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1266/1203/150 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 808/1771/76 mln
09:40 am : Stocks open slightly higher as investors digest further evidence that the economy is on track for a much-desired soft landing. With the Fed focused on inflation, a surprising drop in the October core PPI has shown that inflationary pressures at the wholesale level remain contained. Total PPI plunged 1.6% while core-PPI unexpectedly fell 0.9%, the biggest decline since August 1993. Also, with the holiday shopping season officially beginning next week, October retail sales data have raised some optimism about the health of the consumer. Albeit falling for a second straight month, overall retail sales, excluding a drop in gasoline sales which is actually good for the economy, rose 0.4%. That is consistent with a moderate upward trend in consumer spending. DJ30 +20.33 NASDAQ +2.07 SP500 +2.99 NASDAQ Vol 88 mln NYSE Vol 52 mln
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Early sentiment continues to improve as investors dig beyond the weak headline reads on retail sales and embrace a stunning plunge for October PPI. Even though Thursday's CPI data will provide a more accurate inflationary picture, the meaningful deviation from the consensus estimate with the core PPI number suggests there is clear widespread weakness in pricing for producers. Also, further analysis of today's retail sales data again shows that the declines were caused by a drop in gasoline prices and thus gas sales, which is actually good for the economy and not a sign of consumer weakness. Excluding gasoline, overall sales rose 0.4%, which is consistent with a moderate upward trend in consumer spending.
08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.8. As expected, retail sales fell for a second straight month in October, checking in with a 0.2% decline (consensus -0.4%), while sales, ex-autos, fell 0.4% (consensus -0.3%). Meanwhile, total PPI fell a much larger than expected 1.6% (consensus -0.5%), while the more closely watched core rate unexpectedly fell 0.9% (consensus 0.1%), suggesting inflation at the wholesale level remains contained. So far, the reaction in stocks has been positive, as futures indications now suggest a slightly higher open for the indices. Bonds are catching an even bigger bid as the 10-year note is now up 10 ticks to yield 4.56%.
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.2. Futures versus fair value are pointing to a slightly lower open for stocks. While uninspiring quarterly results from Dow components Wal-Mart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) are contributing to the lack of participation from buyers, the market remains more concerned about what economic data at 8:30 ET will say about the health of the consumer and inflation. October Retail Sales will help drive expectations for holiday spending and Q4 GDP growth while PPI data will provide investors with an update on pricing pressures at the wholesale level.
06:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.8.
06:15 am : FTSE...6192.90...-1.30...-0.0%. DAX...6384.11-...+9.62...-0.2%.
06:15 am : Nikkei...16289.55...+267.06...+1.7%. Hang Seng...18878.42...+9.55...+0.1%.
