黄金自去年4月创$732/OZ以来,一直处于上下震荡格局.
黄金板块(以HUI为代表)也一直盘整中,多次出现假突破.尤其是近一个多月出现两次假突破. 令投资人损失不少.
昨日,在黄金下跌时,各黄金股指数(HUI.XUA,SPTGD)都出现了强力反弹,并再一次突破下降趋势线(见本人昨日POST 今日黄金板块又有突破 )
今日,黄金及黄金股指数再一次上升,继续FOLLOW-THROUGN昨日行情. 我们不禁要问: 這次黄金板块突破是否有会FAKOUT?.
经过技术分析,我们认为这此黄金板块的突破有可能是真突破.主要理由如下:
- HUI与黄金比(HUI:GOLD)突破自去年高点以来的长达一年多的下降趋势线(见图中圆圈部分),这是黄金板块非常非常强的BULL信号.有可能预示一伦新的黄金板块牛市行情开始!!
HUI/GOLD RAIO被认为是金股领先指标,是许多职业人士作为买入黄金板块的信号.
因此这个信号有可能触发机构建立金股LONG舱位.
2.许多指数股如ABX.TO,NEM.TO,G.TO,AEM.TO等都在形态上处于W底部突破形态,这类股占了SPTGD指数的40%以上,对指数有重大贡献,因此,他们触底反弹并开始一抡新的牛市行情有可能带动整个板块.
在基本面方面:
1.昨日,NEM宣布取消HEDGE 部分,市场认为公司对未来黄金看好有信心,AFTERHOUR,NEM大涨2.2%, 今日NEM继续发烧,涨5.31%@10:23AM;
2.昨日, RBC Dominion Securities Inc.研究报告称:
GOLD:Seasonal Upturn Appears Imminent,并Summary:
Seasonality for gold typically bottoms out through July, and then moves up strongly from early August into October. Intermediate momentum for bullion is oversold, and key stocks have already started to register new intermediate momentum upturns. The stocks’ relative strength to bullion over the past month is a technical indication of emerging strength for the sector.
Key Technical Features:
Intermediate momentum oversold and bottoming (p 1,3).
Gold stocks outperforming bullion since early June (p 2).
Commitment of Traders data consistent with prior turning points (p 2).
Action: Increase exposure to golds on any near-term weakness, and become more aggressive on a bullion close above 665.80 and an HUI Gold Stock Index close above 341.55 (see charts below)
并推荐了三个股票:G.TO, AEM.TO,SLW.TO
3. 今日, Scotia Capital is ‘extremely bullish’ on gold, silver and diamond prices, 预期黄金07年触及$750,08年触及$800 (全文见连接: http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=23059&sn=Detail)
综上所述, 我们认为这次黄金板块的突破有可能是真突破.
声明:上述分析不代表投资建议,读者自行承担投资风险.
