over the next 18 months, it is going to be vicious.(ZT)

From: Melduke's Blog Page 8-30-07

According to Bloomberg,"Standard & Poor's said business conditions for securities firmsare worse than in the second half of 1998 and revenue from investmentbanking and trading could fall 47 percent in the final six months ofthis year."

Henry To: "Approximately 90% of all subprimemortgages that were originated from 2004 to 2006 will be eventuallysubjected to resets - with a peak of sometime in the spring of nextyear. Given that 1) less than 50% are "full doc" loans, 2) About 25% to30% are interest-only ARM loans, and that 3) the average combinedloan-to-value ratio is about 92% to 95% - when the 2004 to 2006vintages reset over the next 18 months, it is going to be vicious. Ofcourse, all the above won't matter too much if we are still in an eraof rising house prices and easy financing - but as everyone and hisneighbor should now know, that era is now over."

Gold forDecember delivery fell $1.50, or 0.2%, to $673.90 an ounce on the NewYork Mercantile Exchange. Copper futures closed nearly unchanged at$3.35 a pound. Among precious metals, silver for September deliveryslipped 5 cents to $11.791 an ounce. October platinum lost $6.70 apound to close at $1,260.10 an ounce, while palladium slipped 20 centsto close at $335.60 an ounce.

''There's that fear of commercialpaper that's driving people into the bills market,'' said NasriToutoungi, who oversees $23 billion of bonds in Hartford, Connecticut,at Hartford Investment Management Co. ''It's becoming irrational.'' Theyield on the three-month Treasury bill fell 21 basis points, or 0.21percentage point, to 3.80 percent at 3:45 p.m. in New York, accordingto Bloomberg data. The yield has dropped 114 basis points since Aug. 8.

Accordingto FT, Barclays rushed to reassure investors and depositors on Thursdaynight after it was forced by what it said was a technical glitch toborrow from the Bank of England's emergency reserves for the secondtime in just over a week.The UK bank issued a statement after itemerged it had borrowed £1.6bn (€2.4bn) from the central bank'semergency facility on Wednesday evening. The facility, which carries apenalty rate of interest, has become the subject of intense scrutiny byinvestors as they search for signs of distress as a result of therecent turmoil in the capital markets.

In the week ending Aug.29, primary credit borrowing at the discount window averaged $1.3billion, up from an average of $1.2 billion a week ago. On Wednesdayalone, primary credits totaled $1.1 billion, down from $2 billion aweek earlier. The data show that, aside from the previously announcedloans by five major money center banks, little or no new borrowing fromthe discount window has taken place.