板块推荐:农业股涨, 营建股跌 (图)

方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨
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化肥板块
中国的大雪灾预示着 2008 年世界粮食紧张,有关的期货和农业股会很强。中国的大粮仓在南方,中原,华南,四川。广东的早稻已经颗粒无收。小麦在这样长时间的严寒下也会冻死。 小麦今天的价格已经大涨$30,并创新高。(WH8 1093 +30) 中国早已是粮食净进口国,而且进口量每年增加。 这也许就是 POT, CF, MON, MOS 仍在高位的原因吧。化肥的需求仍在增加。两个月后,大盘恢复上涨,这些股会再创新高的。逢低买入这些股,日后会有好的表现。但现在的价格还太高,应该有更好的价格。化肥板块的近期风险主要来自大盘,因为是在高位。板块本身有很好的基础。当大盘启稳(要两个月)它们的优势就会显出来。

 营建板块
Fed cut rate 对营建股有推动作用,但现在已经涨过头。是今后空的好对象。

原因:
1)房地产价格还远未到底,如果今后三年房地产回落到长年平均增长移动线房价至少要比现在跌 20-25%。(见图)

2)低房价和低利率刺激买气,但要有先决条件:
a. 经济强进,失业率低.
b. 房地产呈上升趋势。
c. 宽松的贷款政策。

 这三条现在都不具备而且是正相反。在经济下降时,利率再低也没用。2002 年初利率已降到了 1% 长达一年之久,但房地产市场并没有起飞,反而还有下降。直到 2003 年以后,经济好转,才促使了房地产市场的起飞。

3)所有营建商都在继续亏损,它们的book value 由于冲销土地contract 的损失不断降低。这种趋势还会继续很长时间。现在的 p/b 比已经到了可笑的高度。

 4)考虑到通膨和美元贬值等因素,Fed 减利率的空间有限。
因此,盼望房地产回春只是 wishful thinking。本周营建类股后继乏力,跌幅超过10% 就是明证。 营建类股和房地产长期看跌。

 long  农业股, short 营建股, 注意选好入点。

如果有 Fed inter-meeting rate cut, 也许就是空营建股的好时机。

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