FA 不如TA(谈短线交易的误区)

决定股价的最终因素既不是FA,  也不是TA，而是供需关系。要了解供需关，只有依靠TA(chart patten, volume.....). 当某个板块或个股行成明显的上升或下跌起势后，季报，新闻，upgrades...都很难改变其短期方向

1.  Huge earning beat, open high, close low. stock drop another 2 or 3 days....such as: sohu  stld zeus  pot mos .....(this sector may be in downtrend
or correction)

zeus: reported er 2.4, beat estimate 1.97 . pre mkt high 62, closed 51, lowest 50. Chart pattern:  topped 4 weeks ago with one big drop day(big guys sold its shares). any good news may not change its trend in short term. x aks stld clf rs...all steel stocks have the same charts.

 

2. Huge earning beat, open high, close high, then drop 3 days or more  to fill the gap or even lower. such as x cat stld rtp drys ldk solf..(stock in down trend, er
and upgrade are useless, one analyst upgraded x at 195, almost the highest)



3. Extremely oversold sold stock: er is bad, but beat estimate. stock went up for a few days such as bac wfc wb... (the whole sector is hot, who cares ers? many people think thier worst may be over. a few times since last summer. lol. stock is just a game. MM can say whatever they want. Analysts downgraded c near 15, leh near 12, lol)




4. extremely ovsold stocks such as airline stocks.  most of them such as lcc uaua nwa amr cal dal...lost a lot every Qs. however, their stock prices jumped more than 100% in July from bottom. TA: huge up volumes(bullish). reason:  oil price dropped  from 148 to 120. the worst may be over, er may get better, who knows? poor guys, many are still dreaming oil  price go to 200(many coal and oil stocks dropped 30% or more in  July. hehe)