危机中国

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中国的经济早已捉襟见肘,表面的繁荣根本阻止不了危机爆发。落后生产能力型企业占中国所有企业的大多数,是不争事实。中国目前能有多少企业够得上所谓的“先进生产能力型”,值得斟酌。大趋势下,中国真有抗危机能力吗?我敢断言,不出半年,中国金融一定会出现危机,如果不比美国更糟的话就已经值得安慰的了。盲目乐观是断不可取的,当局应尽早做好针对衰退后可能出现的更大危机的策略,以确保社会稳定。不能再捂了,掩耳盗铃的把戏玩不了多久。百姓可以暂时被愚弄,等到捂不住的时候再揭盖子,错过的恐怕不仅仅是时机。美国的坍塌从次贷开始,中国却是由倒闭潮为导火线。全球性的危机,中国根本没有置身度外的免疫力,最后受灾最重的很可能不是美国。中国非理性的产业结构和病入膏肓的金融系统决定了中国所面对的危机要比美国严重得多。中国的危机远不只是经济层面,更可怕的是社会结构的矛盾,贫富悬殊矛盾等更深层次的危机。这些危机正在由“潜在的”逐步上浮,社会矛盾加剧,表面的经济繁荣已经无法掩盖那些足以颠覆政府的动荡因素。中国正处在一个极其危险的状态。胡温似乎竭尽全力在缓和这些社会矛盾,然而“和谐”恐怕最终只能是个华丽的口号。邓小平的改革已经把中国引入一条死胡同,不彻底否定“白猫黑猫论”,不彻底批判邓氏的复辟倒退,中国是不可能走出危机,达到和谐。

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