07/11/2008：FNM/FRE 周末继续展开心理攻势

07/11/2008：FNM/FRE 周末继续展开心理攻势

美联储和美帝政府都摆明了话说，我们不会管这两个该死的家伙的。
一般人咋想？那还不快刀斩了？还不赶紧short?

已经有过先例了：

1，2007年8月，OE前的星期四指数剧跌时，美联储放话，不会管，不会降息。要让市场这只看不见的手自行调控。当天指数收了个长下影。第二天一早，盘前美联储降低联邦准利率。指数高开，从此拉起了一波几个月的升浪。
2，GOOG 年月日记不清了。当天CFO给了一个坏消息，GOOG跌得惨不忍睹。第二天，CEO出面放话说CFO犯了一个错误，因为CFO用的是不正确的数据。
3，YHOO 这几天的事。说MSFT/YHOO不谈了，然后一直没消息了，YHOO一路跌出新年低。没几天又说接着谈。

其它中小股票的猫腻就不提了。

这些家伙有什么信誉？
嘿，这Paulson可是GS以前的大掌柜。他能不以公谋私？他向着谁？难道他不是华尔街的代言人？

AP
Freddie, Fannie shares down on talk of gov't aid
Friday July 11, 4:48 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, Associated Press Writer
Freddie, Fannie shares swing wildly amid talk of government intervention


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sank, then recovered somewhat, on a gut-wrenching Friday as investors tried to ascertain whether the government will soon intervene to shore up confidence in the troubled mortgage finance companies.

Shares of both companies, which have been trading at levels last seen in the early 1990s, rallied after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and President Bush scrambled to reassure the market about the companies' health, and after Sen. Christopher Dodd raised the prospect that the companies could be given access to emergency Federal Reserve lending.
Dodd, the Banking Committee chairman, spoke Friday to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Paulson and said the two are "looking at various options" for propping up the firms if they ultimately need help. Those include giving them access to the Fed's emergency lending "discount window," the Connecticut Democrat said. said. Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve took the unprecedented step of offering direct loans to investment banks.

Freddie Mac's shares fell 25 cents, or 3.1 percent to close at $7.75 after earlier plummeting falling to $3.89 and then rising briefly into positive territory. Fannie Mae's shares fell $2.95, or 22.4 percent, to $10.25, after sinking as low as $6.68 earlier in the day.

Paulson sought for the second-straight day to calm investors panicked about out the financial state of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying the agency aims to keep the mortgage finance companies "in their current form" without a government takeover.

The financial health of the companies is of critical concern to Washington policymakers because of the crucial role Fannie and Freddie play in the housing market.

The pair hold or guarantee more than $5 trillion worth of mortgages. That's roughly half of the $9.5 trillion debt of the United States. The fear is that a failure of one or both would wreak havoc on the nation's financial system and the broader economy.

Paulson's comments came amid reports that the government was considering a plan to take over one or both of the companies and place them in a conservatorship.

The Treasury chief said his department is "maintaining a dialogue with regulators and with the companies." The companies' main regulator will continue to work with the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "as they take the steps necessary to allow them to continue to perform their important mission," Paulson said.

"I think everybody's just holding their breath in expectation that something substantive from the government will happen today or over the weekend," said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics in Washington.

The companies' troubles are more a result of market perceptions than a changed financial picture at the two companies, Petrou said.

"External reality doesn't warrant such an action, but external reality seems no longer to matter," she said.

Under a 1992 law, if either company fell into financial trouble, the government could take over their operations by placing it in a conservatorship. That process could be used to keep operations going at Fannie and Freddie, but shareholders would likely see their investments erased, and the companies' ability to support the mortgage market could be reduced.

"Typically when this happens the business is a shell of its former self," said Louisiana State University banking professor Joseph Mason. "Shareholders aren't going to like it, managers and directors aren't going to like it, but it's not about whether they like it."

Wachovia Corp. economist Jay Bryson said the two mortgage giants could face a replay of the near-collapse in March of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. A lack of market confidence could make it difficult for Fannie and Freddie to raise funding through debt sales, he said.

"It becomes a liquidity issue, rather than a solvency issue," Bryson said.

Representatives from Fannie and Freddie had no immediate comment.

Fannie and Freddie play a crucial role in providing funding for home loans by buying up mortgages and packaging them as investments. If they are unable to operate, the implications could be dire.

"Without them, our economy would collapse," Piper Jaffray analyst Robert P. Napoli said in a note to clients. Napoli lowered his target on Freddie to $9 per share from $28, and on Fannie to $15 per share from $30.

On Thursday, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight -- the companies' chief regulator -- said both remain "adequately capitalized," after Paulson and Bernanke sought to calm investors jitters in testimony on Capitol Hill.

Reassurances by government officials do not appear to be working.

"We doubt anyone will listen as fear is so high," Napoli said.

Congress created Fannie in 1938 and Freddie in 1970 to keep money flowing into the home-loan market by buying up mortgages and bundling them into securities for sale to investors worldwide -- thereby making home ownership affordable for low- and middle-income Americans.

But under a 1992 law they are required to hold only a fraction of what is mandated for commercial banks as a financial cushion against risk.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. analyst Andrew Parmentier said in a note to clients that the question of capital-raising plans at either company remains a "moving target ... (but) it is clear to us that government action would be undertaken to ensure that the institutions would not fail."

Associated Press Writers Jeannine Aversa, Ernest Scheyder, Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Christopher S. Rugaber contributed to this report.

************************************************************************
Washington, Wall St. weigh Fannie, Freddie help
Friday July 11, 5:39 pm ET
By Alan Zibel and Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press Writers
Fretting over Fannie and Freddie: Investors nervously await action to help mortgage giants


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Wall Street and Washington wrestled Friday with how to shore up mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two troubled pillars of the economy whose failure would deal a devastating blow to the already crippled housing market.

As investors grew more convinced that only some type of government bailout could rescue the firms, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the focus was to support the pair "in their current form" without a takeover.
The government was considering giving Fannie and Freddie access to the Fed's emergency lending program as one option to prop up the firms, said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., citing conversations with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Paulson.

A Fed spokeswoman said the central bank had not talked with Fannie and Freddie about the emergency lending program. The spokeswoman declined to discuss any other options being considered.

Both companies issued statements late Friday calling their financial positions solid. Freddie Mac said it did not see an immediate need to raise fresh money, and said other options included cutting its annual shareholder dividend, which costs $650 million a year.

Investors drove Fannie and Freddie shares to 17-year lows before the stocks recovered somewhat. The turmoil, combined with a new high for oil prices, helped send the Dow Jones industrials briefly below 11,000 for the first time in nearly two years. The Dow finished down about 1 percent at 11,100.54.

Fannie and Freddie were created by the government to provide more Americans the chance to own a home by adding to the available cash banks can loan customers. Shares of both companies are publicly owned.

Their importance to the housing market and overall economy is hard to overstate: Fannie and Freddie either hold or back $5.3 trillion of mortgage debt, or about half the outstanding mortgages in the United States.

"Without them, our economy would collapse," Piper Jaffray analyst Robert P. Napoli said in a note to clients.

In the mortgage industry, the prospect of doing business without Fannie and Freddie is truly frightening.

"The cost of borrowing would go up dramatically," said Steve Habetz, president of Threshold Mortgage Co. in Westport, Conn. "We would be going back to dark ages where a homebuyer would be hoping that a local bank would (have enough resources) to make the loan that it will keep on its books."

Published reports suggested the government was considering taking over one or both of the companies and running them itself.

President Bush met with senior economic advisers and said Paulson had assured him that Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke "will be working this issue very hard."

Wall Street sent the companies' stocks lower nonetheless. Freddie Mac shares were down 25 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $7.75. Fannie Mae shares were down $2.95, or 22.4 percent, to 10.25.

"I think everybody's just holding their breath in expectation that something substantive from the government will happen today or over the weekend," said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics.

Analysts also suggested the problems had as much to do with market perceptions than any fundamental change in the two companies' finances. One report from Citigroup titled "Fear Begets Fear" called the sell-off "overdone."

The government has several options that stop short of a dramatic takeover. The Federal Reserve could provide emergency loans, or take on either company's mortgage-backed securities in an effort to reassure the market.

Under a government takeover, operations would continue at Fannie or Freddie, but shareholders would probably see their investments erased, and the companies' ability to support the mortgage market could be reduced.

"Typically when this happens the business is a shell of its former self," said Louisiana State University banking professor Joseph Mason. "Shareholders aren't going to like it, managers and directors aren't going to like it, but it's not about whether they like it."

The mortgage giants could face a replay of the near-collapse in March of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. A crisis of market confidence can make it difficult to raise day-to-day operating cash through routine debt sales.

The chief regulator of Fannie and Freddie, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, said on Thursday that the two companies were "adequately capitalized."

Congress created Fannie, the Federal National Mortgage Association in 1938 and Freddie, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp., in 1970. They were designed to buy mortgages and bundle them into securities for sale to investors worldwide, making home ownership affordable for more Americans.

Under a 1992 law, they have less strict standards than commercial banks for the financial cushions they must hold to protect against risk.

Paul Miller, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., said neither company is in as dire a financial position as Bear Stearns was in the spring -- making investors nervous no action will be taken over the weekend to shore them up.

He said Fannie and Freddie could soothe market fears by selling more shares of stock to investors and raising cash. "I hope that they raise capital and they raise a lot of it," he said.

Congress is moving closer to completing a housing rescue package that would create a new regulator for Fannie and Freddie and tighten controls over them. The bills would also permanently raise the limit on the loans they can buy.

Associated Press Writers Ernest Scheyder, Julie Hirschfeld Davis, J.W. Elphinstone and Christopher S. Rugaber contributed to this report.