股市的牛气何时才能传染给华尔街的咕噜?

指数连闯新高。。。华尔街的咕噜(guru)们翘首以待的10月暴跌没有出现。美国股市就是在这样“戒备森严”的背景下出现的, 请看9月份华尔街的大老们是如何看大市的:

  1. Analysts at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch believe a correction in the SPX "appears under way," with key support at 870-920, which would equate to 15-20% decline from the recent 1,080 high.

  2. BusinessWeek, Oct. 1, 2009 – "Fund Managers Bracing for a Sell-Off."

  3. The Vice Chairman and Director at BlackRock Investments wrote in Barron's last week that he is bullish, but with an SPX year-end target of only 1,000-1,050, and with caution that "investors should be prepared for corrective action at any time."

  4. It was noted on CNBC.com on Oct. 6 that Jim Cramer does not expect a meltdown, but expects another 3-5% correction.

  5. CNBC.com also reported last week that the Chief Investment Officer at Wells Fargo Advisors is telling investors to prepare for a 10-20% pullback.

  6. Several articles in the Oct. 1, 2009 The Economist, including one article entitled, "A Rally Too Far."

  7. Worries about third-quarter earnings – the common denominator is second-quarter earnings surprises were driven purely by cost-cutting, a driver that won't be in place for third-quarter reports, and doubt that companies can deliver on top-line growth.

  8. The latest American Association of Individual Investors' weekly survey indicated the percentage of bulls dropped from 43% to 35% -- the 10-week moving average of the percentage bulls and percentage bears is even at 40%. I'd expect more bulls in the context of the current uptrend.

    华尔街的说话脑壳和普通股民常犯的错误是高买低卖。 难道经过这次的金融海啸后, 这样的毛病都改了?果真这样, 股市还有什么存在的理由?





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