WHAT happens in poor countries when they reach replacement fertility? The lesson of rich countries is that they stay there for decades. German fertility dipped below replacement in 1970 and is still low. America is the only rich country that, having fallen below the replacement rate, has risen back above it.
Except in a few extraordinary cases—Hong Kong, Macao, parts of eastern Germany—fertility has not fallen to the very low rate of 1.0. In most rich countries, the rate stabilises at about 1.3 and begins to rally. But the rally varies. Northern Europe—Britain, Scandinavia, France—is seeing big rises in fertility, though not yet to above-replacement levels. Russia and eastern Europe have seen little increase in fertility and Mediterranean countries only modest rises.What causes these differing patterns is still a matter of debate. Migrants bring a preference for large families with them—though this is changing as fertility falls in their countries of origin. In America, religion may also have played a role. And much depends on how countries react to the erosion of traditional families. Japan and southern Europe have clung to older ways, discouraging women from working and frowning on single-parent families; there, fertility has stayed low, presumably because women resist what they see as unwelcome social pressure by having fewer children. In countries that have provided state services to accommodate changing mores, fertility is rising because women can more easily balance the demands of work and parenting.
