11/14/2012:Short一切
所有主要股票和板块都是明显跌势。
预期即使有所象样反弹也会在感恩节后,短线可能做多的最早机会在Fri 11/23半天交易的收盘前。
科技股整个大板块2012年的任务就是配合AAPL成功出货。2012年4月下旬,The sum of trading transaction dollar amount of the 9 of top 10 NDX stocks other than AAPL is less than 1/3 of that of AAPL. 在那段时间,2012年4月MSFT ER时,MSFT reported that in the first quarter of 2012, it used $2.7B to buy back. 这是典型的从实业向金融业进行利益输送,同时,拉高和维持市场股价的成本由高现金储备实业比如MSFT承担!
Buy-back and dividend是Cash Cow大公司对华尔街的利益输送。典型地以MSFT来说,MSFT VP Frank X. Shaw主动透露:
截至2011的十二年间,MSFT increased profits from $9 billion in 2000 to $23 billion in 2011 and returned $194 billion to shareholders via dividends and stock buyback.
Data source from:
http://techcrunch.com/2012/07/20/microsofts-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-decade/
这个数字是什么概念?以每年都都赢利最多的$23B计算,十二年MSFT共赢利$276B,但却给华尔街输送了$194B!几乎把全部利润都输送了!Bill Gates几乎每天都在卖手持的MSFT巨额股票,如果MSFT不进行利益输送,华尔街当傻瓜冤大头承接Gates零成本的卖出?MSFT每年赢利巨大,不过是华尔街和原始大股东的Cash Cow,有小股东们什么事?
In April 2012, AAPL's dollar amount was 10 times of the sum of that of MSFT, GOOG, JPM and C, which were in the third to 6th place. Dollar amount of BAC was in the second place. AAPL的走势,自从2012年4月以来,已经进入涨缩量跌放量的出货模式。Big Boys在AAPL上的赢利是相当巨大的,应该是Internet Bubble以来,最大的盈利单项目,远超GOOG/FB上市等项目。