新加坡房地产循环周期的历史回顾

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Summary of Singapore Past Property Cycles

Posted: 27 July 2013

URA Private Residential Property Price Index

Upturns (Bottom to Peak)

  Bottom Peak Change % Duration in quarters
1975-1986 Cycle 12.4 52.5 +323.4% 35
1986-1998 Cycle 33.5 181.4 +441.5% 40
1999-2004 Cycle 100.0 140.4 +40.4% 6
2004-2009 Cycle 112.4 177.5 +57.9% 17
Average     +215.8% 24.5
2009-2013Q2 133.3 215.4 +61.6% 16

Downturns (Peak to Bottom)

  Peak Bottom Change % Duration in quarters
1975-1986 Cycle 52.4 33.5 -36.2% 10
1986-1998 Cycle 181.4 100.0 -44.9% 10
1999-2004 Cycle 140.4 112.4 -19.9% 15
2004-2009 Cycle 177.5 133.3 -24.9% 4
Average     -31.5% 9.75

By Property Type

URA Property Price Index by Property Type

Upturns (Bottom to Peak)

  Landed Non-Landed
  Bottom Peak Change % Bottom Peak Change %
1975-1986 Cycle 10.2 50.6 +396.1% 14.8 62.3 +320.9%
1986-1998 Cycle 33.6 193.4 +475.6% 33.0 171.7 +420.3%
1999-2004 Cycle 100.0 138.7 +38.7% 100.0 141.1 +41.1%
2004-2009 Cycle 113.5 161.8 +42.6% 111.9 181.3 +62.0%
Average     +238.2%     +211.1%
2009-2013Q2 130.8 244.9 +87.2% 133.9 208.0 +55.3%

Downturns (Peak to Bottom)

  Landed Non-Landed
  Peak Bottom Change % Peak Bottom Change %
1975-1986 Cycle 50.5 33.6 -33.6% 62.3 33.0 -47.0%
1986-1998 Cycle 193.4 100.0 -48.3% 171.7 100.0 -41.8%
1999-2004 Cycle 138.7 113.5 -18.2% 141.1 111.9 -20.7%
2004-2009 Cycle 161.8 130.8 -19.2% 181.3 133.9 -26.1%
Average     -29.8%     -33.9%

By Housing Type

Property Price Index by housing type

Singapore

Singapore is an island city-state located off the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula, 137 kilometres north of the equator, south of the Malaysian state of Johor and north of the Indonesian Riau Islands. With a land area of about 710 square kilometres, Singapore is the smallest country in the region and one of the smallest countries in the world.

Singapore Map

Achievements

Although small in size, the globally connected, multi-cultural and cosmopolitan city-state is today a top-class world city:

  • It is the fourth largest foreign exchange trading centre in the world
  • It is ranked the second most competitive country in the world, just behind Switzerland (The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012, World Economic Forum)
  • the World Bank ranks it as the world's easiest place to do business (Doing Business 2012 Report, World Bank)
  • it is set to overtake Las Vegas as the world's second largest casino gambling hub in dollar value (Frank Fahrenkopf, President, American Gaming Association)
  • it is the world's third-largest oil refining centre, after Rotterdam and Houston
  • The port of Singapore is the busiest transhipment hub in the world and it handles about one-seventh of the world's total container transhipment throughput, and 5% of global container throughput
  • it has the highest concentration of millionaire households and is the country with the fastest-growing number of millionaire households in the world (BCG's eleventh annual Global Wealth report, The Boston Consulting Group)
  • it is the third richest country in the world, just behind Qatar and Luxembourg (Forbes magazine report)

Strengths

Singapore's economic achievements can be attributed to the following:

  • a free trade economy

Singapore has an extensive network of double taxation avoidance agreements, free trade agreements and investment guarantee agreements. Global businesses find it advantageous to site their headquarters in Singapore to benefit from the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers.

  • a strong legal system

Singapore is known for integrity, quality, reliability, rule of law, and enforcement of intellectual property rights. Effective crime prevention and detection have also ensured that the city-state is safe and orderly to live in.

  • a highly efficient workforce

Singapore's multi-cultural workforce is highly educated, motivated and productive and is proficient in English - the language of international business. Singapore's commitment to education has produced a large base of engineering talent and a sizeable pool of skilled technicians. An open immigration policy has also served to increase Singapore's talent pool and gives companies the opportunity to source for the best personnel from anywhere in the world.

  • its unparalleled connectivity and infrastructure

Singapore has built on its strategic geographical location to become one of the world's top transportation hubs for air and sea cargo. Companies here have the necessary air, land, sea, and telecommunications linkages necessary to move goods and services anywhere in the world, whenever they are needed. Singapore also has an efficient and integrated public transport system, with its Mass Rapid Transit system, and bus and taxi services providing a smooth and seamless journey for commuters.

  • a stable and competent ruling government

Singapore is a republic with a parliamentary system of government based on the Westminster model and general elections are held every five years to elect the parliament. The current ruling party in government is The People's Action Party (PAP), which has won every election since self-government in 1959. The government has always adopted a pro-business policy, regardless of world economic crisis or situations.

Singapore City Skyline
 
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