Geopolitical concerns remained in the news, with ongoing developments in Iraq and Ukraine, but market impact has been limited recently. Defensive sectors outperformed, while machinery, airlines, banks, builders and Internet were among the weakest cyclical groups. The dollar was weaker against the yen and euro, while energy prices and gold were lower.
o Timing of Fed rate hike in news:
§ There was increased attention on the timing of the Fed's next rate hike, with several major firms bringing forward their expectations following last week's strong jobs report. Among the notable calls was JPMorgan moving its tightening forecast from Q4 2015 to Q3 of next year, while Goldman Sachs pulled its forecast forward from Q1 2016 to Q3 2015. However, given that timing expectations vary among both Street economists and Fed officials, the recent changes in some forecasts have not been viewed as a major overhang for stocks. While several press articles highlighted the new forecasts, it was also noted by some that there are few expectations for a rate hike before early 2015.
o Earnings season coming into focus:
§ With several major Q2 earnings releases set for this week, earnings season has come back into focus. The notable releases start with AA (1.6%) on Tuesday and WFC (0.9%) on Friday, with the pace picking-up next week.