HD从1987年起有股票红利,最初是每股季度红利0.0439分,现在是69分,红利上涨了1572倍,股价上涨了152倍,红利复利回报是211倍(不计算红利税收因素)。
1987年10月股市发生了著名的Black Monday, 所以如果晚一个月买入HD,投资回报将是350倍。一个没有投资基本常识的人往往会对股市有恐惧,总是认为明天就会是世纪末日,而实际上在美国股市的百年历史里,每一次金融危机回过头来看,你都会又一次懊悔自己再一次的错过了一次重大的投资机会。
时间相差1个月,投资回报相差100万。
巴菲特:“當天上掉金子的時候,應該用大桶去接,而不是杯子。 ”
-转贴内容:
Some anecdotes I find interesting by observing the results 189 years between 1825 and 2013:
- The market had 134 positive years and 55 negative years (the market was up 71% of the time)
- 44% of the time the market finished the year between 0% and +20%
- 60% of the time the market finished the year between -10% and +20%
- Only 14% of the time (26 out of 189 years) did the market finish worse than -10%
- Only a mere 4.8% of the time (fewer than 1 in 20 years) did the market finish worse than -20%
So to put it another way (using the 189 years between 1825 and 2013 as our sample space), there is an 86% chance that the market finishes the year better than -10%. There is a 95% chance the market ends higher than -20%. And as I mentioned above, there is a 71% chance that the market ends any given year in positive territory.
One last observation: the market was 5 times more likely to be up 20% or more in a year (50 out of 189) than down 20% or more in a year (9 out of 189)!
如果在这样的股市长期正增长环境中,你还无法理解股市投资的实际意义,那么这只能是你个人的遗憾。
HD是个家喻户晓的公司,就如同沃尔玛,强生,宝洁,高度洁,可口可乐,百事可乐,Visa, MasterCard, 3M, XOM等等,你每天都使用它们的产品和服务。在你使用它们的产品和服务的时候,你是否曾想到过,这些公司还提供一项比较特殊的服务,它可以使你成为百万富翁,千万富翁,而你只须要将自己一年的工资投资到这些公司的股票,然后什么也不用做,你就慢慢的变成百万富翁,千万富翁。
更奇妙的是,自己没钱也没关系,借的钱也可以。这是一个杨白劳的时代。
HD是个经典的长期蓝筹红利股,如果能理解HD的股票投资逻辑和方法,你就能理解其它上百家与HD相似的蓝筹红利股的投资逻辑和方法,对一个个人投资者而言,你能得到的投资机会就已经远远超过你的资金量了。
从HD的长期图形,很容易看出曾经在十几年的时间里HD股票投资回报很差,甚至是负的。我们是否可以在投资中避开这样的阴暗时期呢?难度非常大,因为这需要投资者掌握和使用投资的基本常识,而
投资的基本常识是许多人不愿意花一分钟去学习的简单知识,因为太简单,谁不想学高大上时髦东西呢?
“Most people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.”-Bertrand Russell
“大多数人宁愿死也不愿思考,事实上,他们这样做了 。“
待续