股市价值投资常识如何能帮助实现三个自由


“You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.”

“If you are in the investment business and have an IQ of 150, sell 30 points to someone else.”  - 巴菲特

我相信有许多人的智商确实是高于120的,而且其中的大部分人也非常清楚自己的高智商,所以这些高智商的人才会认为自己可以超越平淡无奇的常识性的投资基础知识,创造出超越普通常识的股市奇迹。
 

这些曾经梦想要创造出超越普通常识的股市奇迹的高智商者,不少人最终是在出租房生意中找到“一个真实的自己”。

当年我爱说如果对赌博研究透了再投钱就是投资,如果是没研究好就投钱的所谓投资其实是赌博,本人从来不赌博。”

- 赌遍全球

“本人从来不赌博。”-  赌遍全球                                            本人从来不炒股。”- 股市小书生

 能够理解赌遍全球的话所包含的逻辑,基本也可以立刻领会价值投资模式所包含的逻辑。芒格有句名言,
 

They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

以我个人的学习感受(仅仅是个人观点),投资的全部精髓都可以浓缩在芒格这一句话中,这句话背后的理论逻辑是凯利公式。

投资与人的性格是有关系的,不要将性格与人格/人品/聪慧等等混淆。许多人一辈子对股市的认知都只能停留在“炒股”的层面上,而永远也不会尝试接触“投资”的层面。这就如同许多人永远也无法理解为什么“赌遍全球从来不赌博”。

沃伦.巴菲特:“一个人,要么在30秒内接受价值投资,要么永远也接受不了价值投资。我从来不曾见过任何人,会在10年之后才逐渐地皈依这种方法。它似乎和智商或学术训练无关。它是顿悟,否则就是拒绝。”

如果你第一次接触到价值投资模式没啥感觉,只能说这种投资模式不太符合你的性格。比如投资和投机的高手野花网友说过,自己的儿子学习的是经济,但是投资不行,教也教不会。

老朽的帖子提到了一个1994的投资房的例子。老巴95%以上的财富是在1994年以后挣到的,当然在1994年时,老巴已经很有钱了。这说明老巴的价值投资模式即可以管理大资金,更宝贵的是还能够将大规模的资金增值,而且是维持长期的合理增值水平。

原意将多少比例的财产放在股市之中,应该也是与性格相关的,老巴是99.999%, 我自己是200%。


 

2011年,老巴印度之行的谈话

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”


在我认真学习,理解,思考,掌握并实践了价值投资模式之后,我选择将自己所有的财富都放在股市投资 之中,因为
 

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in my favor like the stock market”

在去年年初的投资机遇中,实际投资地产基金的交易时间加起来也不超过一个小时,在那一个小时之后,每月有远高于加国家庭平均收入的现金流收入, 二年增值50% ,在此期间没有任何的交易操作需要。
 

在投资机遇发生的时刻,我非常详细的,明确的告诉了所有人为什么要做,该怎么做。

如果有人想问 ”难道这一个小时的成功成果就能超过一个普通工薪族一辈子的劳作?“

 

 很多事情你只要努力付出了,没功劳也有苦劳,勤奋会有个基本的收益保障。但投资这行既残酷又简单的特征在于,从来不问你付出了多少,而只看你对不对。这种类别的工作,努力是第二位的,第一位是正确的价值观和方法论。否则,方向不对,越勤奋越坎坷,越痴迷越疯魔。-  水晶苍蝇拍

插一个前二天有人在这里贴过的一个小笑话。  

Nikola Tesla visited Henry Ford at his factory, which was having some kind of difficulty. Ford asked Tesla if he could help identify the problem area. Tesla walked up to a wall of boilerplate and made a small X in chalk on one of the plates. Ford was thrilled, and told him to send an invoice.

The bill arrived, for $10,000. Ford asked for a breakdown. Tesla sent another invoice, indicating a $1 charge for marking the wall with an X, and $9,999 for knowing where to put it.

那么怎样才能寻找到这样能够改变自己命运的一小时呢?能够真正理解下面二句话是一个好的开始。
 

 They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

2011年,老巴印度之行的谈话

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”
 

老巴告诉你可以改变命运的一小时年年都有,芒格告诉你应该怎么干。




有5百万的主是不需要别人操心的,但是怎么保值,享受自己的财富确实是个问题。
 

多看几遍图,基本上也该知道该怎么做了。


 

登录后才可评论.