在上一次的市场的广度和深度分析中给出了牛市预警(https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/77394/202007/25678.html). Let's review those indicators again to see how they turn out to be after 2 consecutive down days.
It only down less than 200 points today, however the market tailwind changes a bit. There is no 2 consecutive down days for more than 1 month, which means every dips was bought up by bulls. Today bulls tried several times to pump up the market, but it failed every time.
It is very tricky for today's close. The candlestick brings hope to bulls, because it could be a bottom pattern; meanwhile it brings imagination to bears since it could be a continuation pattern as well.
回到market breadth indicators, 看图先.
1. 50MA precentage 回复正常, 并且下降不多, 说明没有一点恐慌
2. NYMO 也回复正常, it is-5.56, 远未到熊市临界点-50.
3. CPC 前一阵太低, 说明大家没有风险意识, 买PUT hedge太少. 今天的值是正常的. 今天CPCE有点增加太快, 而CPCI小幅下降, 但愿是散户买PUT保护造成的.
4. SPXADP也很tricky, 收到了可上可下的位置
5. VIX收一红棒棒, 有同学说这不是乌云盖顶吗? 在顶部, 这可能是一个反转信号, 但在底部也会是一个中继信号.
但VIX收在200MA以下, 这也许说明不会有近期大跌.
6. 综上所述, 下周大跌的可能不大, 尤其许多重量级财报还没公布. 要大跌也会等到这些财报结束. 下周大盘以震荡为主, 不过阴跌也很难受. 还有个股, that is a different story, some may go to the moon, the others may fall like a rock.
不过图形上看, 现在很像今年2月中的情形, 希望大家多加小心, 调整好自己仓位, 迎接市场的风雨.
以上全是个人愚见, 仅供参考. YMYD.
大家周末愉快!
