Something crazy happened in the repo market today: according to Curvature repo guru Scott Skyrm, the 10Y traded as low as -4.00% in repo。
what happens if we are right and Powell does assure the market that SLR will be extended? Well, since all of the pent up uncertainty about whether or not bank balance sheets will be usable after March 31 will disappear, what will happen is a monster short squeeze as all those shorts that pushed the 10Y to -4% in repo panic and scramble to cover, sparking a massive surge higher in prices (and plunge in yields), and since there will be immediate follow through to stocks where concerns about rising yields just sent risk assets plunging, we expect a monster move higher in stocks tomorrow.
In any case, stay tuned because there will be fireworks - most likely to the upside - but if for some reason Powell refuses to unclog the repo market, there will be blood.
