Sri Lanka's crisis rings alarm for other troubled economies
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/sri-lankas-crisis-rings-alarm-troubled-economies-86281738
斯里兰卡破产后，多国拉响警报
中央社 ｜2022-07-07
斯里兰卡正经历最近记忆中最严重危机，政府宣告国家破产。美联社报导，阿富汗、阿根廷、埃及、寮国、黎巴嫩、缅甸、巴基斯坦、土耳其、辛巴威经济也深陷困境或面临极大风险。
报导指出，斯里兰卡并非唯一陷入严重困境的经济体。粮食、燃料和其他日常必需品价格因乌克兰(专题)战争而飙升，包括寮国、巴基斯坦、委内瑞拉和几内亚在内，全球各地许多国家都在拉警报。
联合国秘书长全球危机应对小组（Global Crisis Response Group）上个月在报告中指出，94个国家的约16亿人在粮食、能源和金融体系其中至少一个面向陷入危机，当中约12亿人生活在「完美风暴」国家，对生活费危机和其他长期压力极度脆弱。
这些国家陷入困境的确切原因各异，但就在新型冠状病毒疫情对旅游和其他商业活动冲击消退之际，它们都陷入俄罗斯—乌克兰战争推升粮食和燃料成本的风险中。世界银行（World Bank）因此估计，开发中经济体今年的人均收入将会比疫情前低5%。
经济压力不但在许多国家助长示威潮，为疫情纾困方桉提供资金的短期高息借贷还让早就几乎难以履行还款义务的国家累积更多债务。根据联合国数据，全球最贫穷国家当中，逾半陷入债务困境或处于高风险中。
早已饱受贪腐、内战、政变或其他灾难蹂躏的国家发生了若干最严重危机。这些国家承受着不成比例的痛苦负担，却得过且过。以下是一些陷入极度困境或面临最大风险的经济体。
阿富汗自从美国及其北大(专题)西洋公约组织（NATO）盟国去年撤军以来，外援这项长期重要支柱说停就停，使得塔利班（Taliban）重新掌权下的阿富汗深陷严重经济危机。加上各国不承认塔利班合法性而升高制裁力道、停止银行交易、贸易为之瘫痪。美国总统拜登(专题)政府更冻结了阿富汗存放美国的70亿美元外汇储备。
阿富汗3900万人口中约半数面临危及生命的粮食不安全，医护人员和教师在内的大多数公务员遭欠薪数月。最近发生的地震夺走1000多条人命，更加剧这个国家的苦难。
阿根廷每10个阿根廷人中约有4个人贫穷。随着货币贬值，阿根廷中央银行的外汇储备低到危险程度。今年通货膨胀率预计会超过70%。
数以百万计阿根廷人大体上得靠慈善厨房和国家福利计画才能活命，其中许多是透过与执政党有关、政治影响力强大的社会运动进行。最近与国际货币基金（IMF）达成的一项440亿美元债务重整协议挨批作出会妨碍经济复苏的让步。
埃及埃及4月通膨率飙升近15%，造成其1亿300万人口其中近1/3活在贫困中。而在此之前，他们早就因为浮动货币政策和削减燃料、水电补贴等紧缩措施在内的野心勃勃改革计画而受害。
央行升息以抑制通膨并且允许货币贬值，增加埃及偿还巨额外债的难度。埃及的净外汇储备持续减少，沙乌地阿拉伯、卡达和阿拉伯联合大公国已承诺提供220亿美元存款和直接投资等援助。
寮国在疫情爆发前，内陆小国寮国是成长最快经济体之一。但其债务水平飙升，而且和斯里兰卡一样，正与债权国就如何偿还价值数十亿美元贷款展开谈判。由于政府财政脆弱，问题迫在眉睫。
世银表示，寮国外汇储备相当于不到两个月的进口额。寮国货币贬值30%使情势恶化，疫情导致物价上涨和失业，恐造成贫困加剧。
黎巴嫩与斯里兰卡一样，黎巴嫩也是同时面临货币崩溃、物品短缺、通膨严峻、饥饿问题加剧、出现买汽油人龙和中产阶级人数锐减等诸多不利条件。它也曾经历漫长内战，政府失能和恐怖攻击则阻碍复苏。
2019年底政府拟议开征新税，对统治阶级的长期愤怒就此引爆，造成长达数月示威。接下来，黎巴嫩货币开始贬值，未能偿还达国内生产毛额（GDP）170%的约900亿美元债务。黎巴嫩是全球债务最高国家之一。
世银2021年6月在黎巴嫩镑已贬值近90%之际表示，当地陷入超过150年以来举世最严重危机。
缅甸疫情和政治不稳定夹击缅甸经济，军方2021年2月发动政变上台后局势更加溷乱，导致西方对军方持有的商业控股公司实施制裁。缅甸经济去年萎缩18%，预测今年几乎不会成长。
超过70万人因武装冲突和政治暴力而逃离或被迫离开家园。由于情势如此不确定，世银最近发布的全球经济成长预测排除对缅甸2022年至2024年的预测。
巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡一样，巴基斯坦也一直在与IMF紧急协商，期盼重启一项60亿美元纾困计画。原油价格飙涨推升燃料价格，助长其他成本攀高，使得通膨率超过21%。
一位部长呼吁民众少喝茶，以降低6亿美元茶叶进口额，激怒许多巴基斯坦人。过去一年，巴基斯坦货币兑美元汇价贬值约30%。截至3月底，巴基斯坦外汇储备已降至135亿美元，仅相当于两个月的进口额。
土耳其政府财政恶化、贸易逆差不断扩大，加剧土耳其债台高筑。与此同时，当地通膨率超过60%、失业率居高不下。土耳其里拉兑美元和欧元汇价去年底跌至历史低点后，央行抛售外汇储备来抵抗货币危机。
为缓解高通膨带来的打击，当局实施减税并且进行燃料补贴，却削弱了政府财政。家家户户只能勉强设法购买粮食和其他物资。土耳其外债规模约达GDP的54%。
辛巴威辛巴威通膨率已超过130%，令人担心2008年高达5000亿%的恶性通膨重演。辛巴威经济受到多年的去工业化、贪腐、低投资、低出口和高债务打击，许多人三餐不继。当局奋力为大体上「美元化」的当地经济创造足够美元流入。通膨使得当地人无法信任本国货币，增加对美元的需求。
Sri Lanka's crisis rings alarm for other troubled economies
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/sri-lankas-crisis-rings-alarm-troubled-economies-86281738
Sri Lanka is desperate for help to weather its worst crisis in recent memory, but it’s not the only economy that’s in serious trouble as prices of food, fuel and other staples soar, partly due to the war in Ukraine
BANGKOK -- Sri Lanka is desperate for help with weathering its worst crisis in recent memory. Its schools are closed for lack of fuel to get kids and teachers to classrooms. Its effort to arrange a bailout from the International Monetary Fund has been hindered by the severity of its financial crisis, its prime minister says.
But it’s not the only economy that’s in serious trouble as prices of food, fuel and other staples have soared with the war in Ukraine. Alarm bells are ringing for many economies around the world, from Laos and Pakistan to Venezuela and Guinea.
Some 1.6 billion people in 94 countries face at least one dimension of the crisis in food, energy and financial systems, and about 1.2 billion of them live in “perfect-storm” countries, severely vulnerable to a cost-of-living crisis plus other longer-term strains, according to a report last month by the Global Crisis Response Group of the United Nations Secretary-General.
The exact causes for their woes vary, but all share rising risks from surging costs for food and fuel, driven higher by Russia's war on Ukraine, which hit just as disruptions to tourism and other business activity from the coronavirus pandemic were fading. As a result, the World Bank estimates that per capita incomes in developing economies will be 5% below pre-pandemic levels this year.
The economic strains are fueling protests in many countries, as meanwhile, short-term, higher interest borrowing to help finance pandemic relief packages has heaped more debt on countries already struggling to meet repayment obligations. More than half of the world’s poorest countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it, according to the U.N.
Some of the worst crises are in countries already devastated by corruption, civil war, coups or other calamities. They muddle along, but with an undue burden of suffering.
Here’s a look at a few of the economies that are in dire straits or at greatest risk.
AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan has been reeling from a dire economic crisis since the Taliban took control as the U.S. and its NATO allies withdrew their forces last year. Foreign aid — long a mainstay — stopped practically overnight and governments piled on sanctions, halted bank transfers and paralyzed trade, refusing to recognize the Taliban government. The Biden administration froze $7 billion in Afghanistan's foreign currency reserves held in the United States. About half the country’s 39 million people face life-threatening levels of food insecurity and most civil servants, including doctors, nurses and teachers, have been unpaid for months. A recent earthquake killed more than 1,000 people, adding to those miseries.
ARGENTINA
About four of every 10 Argentines are poor and its central bank is running perilously low on foreign reserves as its currency weakens. Inflation is forecast to exceed 70% this year. Millions of Argentines survive largely thanks to soup kitchens and state welfare programs, many of which are funneled through politically powerful social movements linked to the ruling party. A recent deal with the IMF to restructure $44 billion in debt faces questions over concessions that critics say will hinder a recovery.
EGYPT
Egypt's inflation rate surged to almost 15% in April, causing privation especially for the nearly one-third of its 103 million people living in poverty. They were already suffering from an ambitious reform program that includes painful austerity measures like floating the national currency and slashing subsidies for fuel, water and electricity. The central bank raised interest rates to curb inflation and devalued the currency, adding to difficulties in repaying Egypt's sizable foreign debt. Egypt's net foreign reserves have fallen. Its neighbors Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have pledged $22 billion in deposits and direct investments as assistance.
LAOS
Tiny, landlocked Laos was one of the fastest growing economies until the pandemic hit. Its debt levels have surged and like Sri Lanka, it is in talks with creditors on how to repay billions of dollars worth of loans. That's an urgent issue given the country's weak government finances. Its foreign reserves are equal to less than two months of imports, the World Bank says. A 30% depreciation in the Lao currency, the kip, has worsened those woes. Rising prices and job losses due to the pandemic threaten to worsen poverty.
LEBANON
Proposed taxes in late 2019 ignited longstanding anger against the ruling class and months of protests. The currency began to sink and Lebanon defaulted on paying back worth about $90 billion at the time, or 170% of GDP — one of the highest in the world. In June 2021, with the currency having lost nearly 90% of its value, the World Bank said the crisis ranked as one of the worst the world has seen in more than 150 years.
MYANMAR
The pandemic and political instability have buffeted Myanmar’s economy, especially after the army seized power in February 2021 from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. That brought Western sanctions targeting commercial holdings controlled by the army, which dominate the economy. The economy contracted by 18% last year and is forecast to barely grow in 2022. More than 700,000 people have fled or been forced from their homes by armed conflicts and political violence. The situation is so uncertain, a recent global economic update from the World Bank excluded forecasts for Myanmar for 2022-2024.
PAKISTAN
Like Sri Lanka, Pakistan has been in urgent talks with the IMF, hoping to revive a $6 billion bailout package that was put on hold after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government was ousted in April. Soaring crude oil prices pushed up fuel prices which in turn raised other costs, pushing inflation to over 21%. A government minister's appeal to cut back on tea drinking to reduce the $600 million bill for imported tea angered many Pakistanis. Pakistan's currency, the rupee, has fallen about 30% against the U.S. dollar in the past year. To gain the IMF's support, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has raised fuel prices, abolished fuel subsidies and imposed a new, 10% “super tax" on major industries to help repair the country's tattered finances. As of late March, Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves had fallen to $13.5 billion, equivalent to just two months of imports. “Macroeconomic risks are strongly tilted to the downside," the World Bank warned in its latest assessment.
TURKEY
Worsening government finances and a growing trade and capital account deficit have compounded Turkey's troubles with high and rising debt, inflation — at over 60% —and high unemployment. The Central Bank resorted to using foreign reserves to fend off a currency crisis, after the beleaguered lira fell to all-time lows against the U.S. dollar euro in late 2021. Tax cuts and fuel subsidies to cushion the blow from inflation have weakened government finances. Families are struggling to buy food and other goods, while Turkey's foreign debt is about 54% of its GDP, an unsustainable level given the high level of government debt.
ZIMBABWE
Inflation in Zimbabwe has surged to more than 130%, raising fears the country could return to the hyperinflation of 2008 that reached 500 billion percent and heaping problems on its already fragile economy. Zimbabwe struggles to generate an adequate inflow of greenbacks needed for its largely dollarized local economy, which has been battered by years of de-industrialization, corruption, low investment, low exports and high debt. Inflation has left Zimbabweans distrustful of the currency, adding to demand for U.S. dollars. And many skip meals as they struggle to make ends meet.
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Associated Press writers Munir Ahmed in Islamabad, Pakistan and Krishan Francis in Colombo, Sri Lanka, contributed to this report.
