中美建交亲历者 中美还有机会修补关系
“1970年代美国首次与中国接触时，我曾为（时任美国总统国家安全事务助理）亨利·基辛格工作。以下是我认为中美两国仍有机会修复关系的原因。”
当地时间5月24日，美国前副国务卿罗伯特·霍马茨在美国《财富》杂志网站以此为题撰文称，尽管人们在此前很长一段时间里对中美关系改善的前景都不乐观，但最近已然出现了一些有进展的迹象。
作为中美关系正常化的亲历者，霍马茨认为，中美两国都将从近期的一系列高级别对话中受益。他敦促美国不要将对华关系看作零和博弈，不要试图挑战别国制度和文化，而是寻求建立务实、有建设性的双边关系。
I worked for henry Kissinger when America first angaged China
霍马茨表示，如果加以明智的利用，中美之间的会谈将使两国更好地了解彼此的基本目标，阐明各自认为的主要分歧和重要利益，并找到建立尊重和信任的方法。他提到，在去年中国新一届领导班子诞生、今年初美国众议院控制权易手后，这种会谈尤其重要，双方都能借机互相了解、发展关系。
霍马茨首先指出，美国不能在对华关系持续紧张的基础上组织管理双边关系和所谓新的全球秩序，也不能将这个过程看作一场零和博弈，更不能试图通过言辞挑战或批评另一个国家治理体系的合法性来完成其政策目标。中美两国的历史文化和政治制度存在着深刻的差异，这点必须得到承认和尊重。
在他看来，为富有成效的未来关系，美国必须尊重每个国家的文化和制度，并寻求合理的目标。例如，对华盛顿来说，阻碍中国经济增长发展并不是一个现实的或有建设性的选择。他认为，中国有技术能力和人力技能在未来很长一段时间内保持大幅增长，而中国取得的技术进步则应鼓励美国加强本国的各级STEM教育。
霍马茨还指出，试图阻挠中国与其他国家经济关系的增长，同样是不现实和没有建设性的。大多数国家，包括美国的盟友，都在寻求与中国建立建设性的贸易投资关系。对许多国家来说，中国现在是、并将继续是它们最大的贸易伙伴。
美国前副国务卿罗伯特·霍马茨（资料图） 图片来源：美国亚洲协会网站
不过，霍马茨同时强调，美国应当认识到未来中美不可能继续维持像过去几十年间的双边关系，两国在各种问题上的政治对抗会更为激烈。反过来，认识到这些新现实和新机遇也可为今后建立可靠、有建设性和现实的双边关系打下基础。
霍马茨称，为了更深入解决部分关键问题，中美之间就此进行更高强度、更定期的高级别对话是至关重要的。他表示，这不一定能在短时间内带来重大变化，在某些领域取得重大进展可能需要好几个月，甚至几年；在很多情况下，中美官员将不得不求同存异，并找到一个建设性的框架来管理分歧。
“但在这一点上，即使是小变化也是受欢迎的。”霍马茨回忆，上世纪70年代初中美对话刚开始时，中美早期会谈更多的是关于两国的广泛目标而非细节，这才促成了接下来几年间在目标上的一系列谅解。“我们的领导人并没有从一开始就着手解决所有问题，在广泛领域达成协议为未来迈向更大的正常化奠定了基础。”
文章提到，令他“感到鼓舞”的是，现任美国总统国家安全事务助理沙利文和中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任王毅本月10至11日进行了会面，就许多共同关心的双边和国际问题交换了意见。霍马茨强调，最重要的是，双方同意“继续用好这一战略性沟通渠道”，这是“健康的一步”。
I worked for Henry Kissinger when America first engaged China in the 1970s. Here’s why I think the two countries still have a chance to mend their ties
BY ROBERT HORMATS May 24, 2023
Both countries would benefit from dialogues on several significant and often highly divisive issues in coming months, building toward a possible meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit to be held in San Francisco in mid-November.
Used wisely, this series of talks will enable both nations better to understand one another’s basic goals, articulate what they see as major differences and vital interests, and find ways to build mutual respect and trust.
Such talks are particularly important now, following significant personnel changes among high-level officials in Beijing. These new Chinese officials and their American counterparts need opportunities to get to know one another and develop rapport. The talks also come at a time when control of the U.S. House of Representatives has changed hands. China could be informed by U.S. officials about the new leadership in Congress and what they might mean for future China-US relations and negotiations.
Not all the goals mentioned above can be accomplished quickly. Many months–or even years–might be required to make major progress in some areas. In some cases, we may have to simply agree to disagree and find a constructive framework for managing our differences.
It is useful to recognize that the kind of relationship we had for several decades in the past is unlikely in the future. Relations are likely to be considerably more fraught and, on various matters, more politically confrontational. On the flip side, the recognition of a new set of realities and opportunities could lay the basis for a sound, constructive, and realistic relationship going forward.
The first reckoning is that we cannot organize our bilateral relations or manage the new global order based on sustained tensions between our two countries–or by seeing this as a zero-sum contest. Nor can we do it by engaging in rhetorical challenges to, or criticism of, the legitimacy of the system of governance of one country by the other. There are profound differences in historic cultures and political systems that must be recognized and respected.
For future relations to be productive, there needs to be mutual respect for each country’s culture and system. And we must seek reasonable objectives. For example, for Washington, attempting to slow or impede China’s economic growth and development is not a realistic–or constructive–option. China has the technical capabilities and human skills to maintain significant growth for a long time to come. And the impressive technological progress China has made should encourage the U.S. to focus more of its energies on its own internal improvements at home–building out its own 21st-century technical capabilities and strengthening education at all levels in the fields of science, math, technology, and engineering.
Attempting to curb or deter the growth of China’s economic relations with other nations is equally unrealistic and unconstructive. Most countries, including U.S. allies, seek constructive trade and investment relations with China. For many, China is, and will remain, their largest trading partner.
To address key issues more deeply, an enhanced and more regular high-level dialogue on several issues is critical. I had the privilege of being on the National Security Council staff of Henry Kissinger in the early 1970s, when the dialogue between China and the U.S. was just beginning. Early talks were more about the broad objectives of each country than details. This led to a series of understandings on mutual objectives over the next several years. Our leaders did not set out to resolve all issues from the start. The big areas of agreement set the stage for future steps toward greater normalization in the period that followed.
I was, therefore, encouraged that recently President Joe Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, met with Chinese Communist Party Politburo Member and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Li, to address a wide range of bilateral and international issues. Most importantly, the two sides agreed “to maintain this important strategic channel of communication.” This is a healthy step.
The U.S. Secretary of State and China’s top foreign policy official should also undertake a series of regular meetings to better understand one another’s regional and geopolitical objectives and manage their differences. Similarly, meetings between the U.S. Treasury Secretary and China’s finance minister can lead to understanding and cooperation on bilateral and global issues, as it did in the 2008 financial crisis when their cooperation was excellent and vital to a solution.
The two countries also must effectively address trade and investment relations, which have been sources of tensions between us for several years. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao will soon be meeting with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai.
These meetings are not likely to produce any quick solutions–but they are a step in the right direction. A major challenge is that a growing number of trade and investment issues are inextricably linked to security issues. Both sides want to protect their advanced technologies, especially those that could have military uses, and avoid vulnerability to possible strategic or political leverage by the other.
Additionally, the two countries would do well to agree on a communication channel and regularly scheduled meetings between top military leaders on both sides in order to understand each nation’s strategic objectives and avert conflict and miscalculations.
In a wide range of non-strategic areas, both economies can gain enormously from mutual and fair trade and investment. This can only happen if domestic policies, sanctions, and rules in each country are not applied in a way that is discriminatory to the other. Mutual understandings are necessary to accomplish this. And because numerous other countries have an interest in the evolving global economic order, China and the U.S. have an interest in broadening their participation in many aspects of these discussions.
There are many other areas, including climate change and cooperation on medical research and disease prevention, where sustained talks among scientists and researchers can produce enormous benefits. Considerable progress has already been in these areas to the benefit of both countries.
Finally, summits between heads of state are vitally important. November’s APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Summit in San Francisco is an optimal opportunity for the next meeting between our presidents. We should welcome President Xi to the U.S. for this important meeting of Pacific Leaders and an opportunity to defuse tensions.
Government officials work best when facing deadlines, and now would be a good one to mobilize key agencies and personnel on both sides of the Pacific to prepare a constructive agenda and constructive outcomes.
The goal would not be to cover every issue or every detail. It would be to discuss the broad goals of each country, identify a few key initiatives with potential for progress and agree on ways of building a mutually beneficial and stable relationship in the future. It can be a big step toward a more constructive relationship for both nations and the world.
Robert Hormats is a former Under Secretary of State for Economic, Growth, Energy, and the Environment, and the author of The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
