德国经济与中国的关系被视为金融体系的风险
亚历山大·韦伯，彭博新闻社
2018 年 8 月 30 日星期四，德国国旗的颜色在中国上海德国工贸中心内的中庭顶部展示。德国企业得到了德国工业中心和德国工贸中心等机构的支持。 上海贸易。 与北京和港口城市太仓的姊妹中心一样，该中心为德国小型出口商提供了一个跳板，提供行政服务以及从许可到人力资源等问题的非正式咨询。
2018 年 8 月 30 日星期四，德国国旗的颜色在中国上海德国工贸中心内的中庭顶部展示。德国企业得到了德国工业中心和德国工贸中心等机构的支持。 上海贸易。 与北京和港口城市太仓的姊妹中心一样，该中心为德国小型出口商提供了一个跳板，提供行政服务以及从许可到人力资源等问题的非正式咨询。 摄影：沉其来/彭博社、彭博社
（彭博社）——德国央行警告称，如果德国与中国的密切贸易关系恶化，可能会对欧洲最大经济体的金融体系造成严重破坏。
央行表示，虽然直接风险相对较小，但贷款机构与在中国投资或在中国出售大量产品的国内企业的关系导致了“重大风险”。
根据其月度报告中的一篇文章，银行还向依赖中国供应商提供投入的经济部门提供了大量贷款。
德国央行表示：“德中经济关系的深远破坏将产生重大影响，并最终增加贷款违约的可能性。” 报告称，在这种情况下，金融体系也可能受到全球市场高度不确定性的影响。
尽管德国从中国崛起成为世界第二大经济体中受益匪浅，但近年来贸易关系变得更加紧张。 2023年，欧盟对中国电动汽车补贴展开调查，以阻止廉价进口产品。 北京方面对欧洲酒类产品进行了调查作为回应。
俄罗斯乌克兰战争和中东冲突也凸显了地缘政治风险。 自克里姆林宫关闭天然气供应、推高能源价格并迫使政府迅速寻找替代能源以来，德国一直难以获得动力。
德国央行表示，如果政治紧张局势导致德国突然与中国“脱钩”，对德国的损害将尤其严重。 这个亚洲国家的纯粹经济危机被认为更容易控制。
德国央行的数据显示，截至 2022 年底，德国银行对中国大力投资的企业的风险敞口接近 2200 亿欧元，约占其风险加权资产的 7%。 具有系统相关性的大型贷款机构比规模较小的竞争对手参与程度更高。
报告称：“企业和政界人士应继续努力降低风险并增强德国经济的韧性。” “对于金融机构来说，密切关注借款人的商业活动可能产生的间接脆弱性似乎很重要。”
中国德国商会周三发布的另一份报告显示，大多数在华德国企业认为这个亚洲国家的经济正在下滑，至少需要一年的时间才能反弹。
German Economy's China Ties Seen as Risk for Financial System
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/german-economy-s-china-ties-seen-as-risk-for-financial-system-1.2025908#:~:text=
Alexander Weber, Bloomberg News
The colors of the German flag are displayed at the top of the atrium inside the German Center for Industry and Trade in Shanghai, China, on Thursday, Aug. 30, 2018. German companies are bolstered by institutions such as the country's Center for Industry and Trade in Shanghai. Like its sister sites in Beijing and the port city of Taicang, the center provides a launching pad for Germany's small exporters, offering administrative services and informal consultation on issues from licensing to human resources. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
The colors of the German flag are displayed at the top of the atrium inside the German Center for Industry and Trade in Shanghai, China, on Thursday, Aug. 30, 2018. German companies are bolstered by institutions such as the country's Center for Industry and Trade in Shanghai. Like its sister sites in Beijing and the port city of Taicang, the center provides a launching pad for Germany's small exporters, offering administrative services and informal consultation on issues from licensing to human resources. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg , Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s close trade relations with China could wreak havoc on the financial system of Europe’s largest economy if they were to deteriorate, the Bundesbank warned.
While direct exposure is relatively small, “significant risks” result from lenders’ relationships with firms at home that are either invested in China or sell a lot of their output there, the central bank said.
Banks also lent large amounts to sectors of the economy that rely on Chinese suppliers for inputs, according to an article in its monthly report.
“A far-reaching disruption of German-Chinese economic relations would have a significant impact and ultimately increase the probability of loan defaults,” the Bundesbank said. In such a scenario, the financial system may also be affected by high uncertainty on global markets, it said.
While Germany has strongly benefited from China’s rise to become the world’s No. 2 economy, trade ties have grown more tense in recent years. In 2023, the European Union opened a probe into Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles, to ward off cheap imports. Beijing responded with an investigation into European liquor products.
Russia’s war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East have also highlighted geopolitical risks. Germany has struggled to gain momentum since the Kremlin shut off natural gas supplies, sending energy prices higher and pushing the government to quickly find alternative sources.
The damage to Germany would be particularly grave if political tensions were to lead to a sudden “decoupling” from China, the Bundesbank said. A purely economic crisis in the Asian nation was deemed more manageable.
At end-2022, German banks’ exposures to firms strongly invested in China was almost €220 billion — about 7% of their risk-weighted assets, according to the Bundesbank. Large, systemically relevant lenders were more heavily involved than smaller rivals.
“Companies and politicians should continue their efforts to reduce risks and strengthen the resilience of the German economy,” it said. “For financial institutions, it seems relevant to keep an eye on indirect vulnerabilities that can arise through the business activities of borrowers.”
A separate report published Wednesday by the German Chamber of Commerce in China showed most German companies in China think the Asian nation’s economy is declining and will take at least a year to rebound.
德央行警告“与中国脱钩”：德国将严重动荡
据德国N-TV电视台网站当地时间1月24日报道，德国希望减少对中国的经济依赖，但德国央行在一份研究报告中警告称，如果这种情况突然发生，德国将出现严重动荡，经济将遭受重大打击，“显然使（我们）与俄罗斯脱钩的成本相形见绌”。
根据德国央行一月报告中的分析，如果与中国的经济关系突然大范围恶化，德国可能出现严重经济动荡。“然而，即使有序撤离中国，也会面临重大损失。”报告补充说，德国金融系统稳定也面临风险。德媒称，这不是德国央行第一次研究德国经济对中国的依赖情况。
根据德国央行数据，2022年德国向中国出口了价值1070亿欧元的商品，占德国商品出口总额的7%，使中国成为德国经济第四大买家。反过来，2022年德国13%的进口商品来自中国，后者是“德国最重要的海外供应国”。
德国央行称，中国的经济情况将对德国经济产生重大影响，而脱钩对德国工业的打击尤其严重，活跃在中国的德国大公司可能随之失去相当大一部分的销售和利润基础。
而且，“直接或间接依赖中国关键中间产品（以生产其他商品或服务）的公司圈子要大得多”，包括电池、稀土和抗生素等。错过产品交付可能在短期内造成严重生产损失，下游生产阶段也将受到影响。“总的来说，与俄罗斯脱钩影响深远，但它的成本与对华脱钩导致的总体经济损失相比，显然‘相形见绌’。”德国央行判断称。
2023年2月6日，沈阳，位于中德（沈阳）高端装备制造产业园的华晨宝马里达工厂车间内一派繁忙景象，数十台机器人正舞动手臂进行生产作业。 图自视觉中国
德国央行表示，金融体系也存在潜在风险。如果德国与中国的经济关系大范围破裂，银行对那些严重依赖中国的企业、行业的债权也将受影响，贷款违约的可能性会增加。金融系统预计将承受更多负担，包括导致全球金融市场失去信任。
从数据上看，近期德国各银行持有756家对华高度依赖公司的债权总额接近2200亿欧元（约合人民币1.7万亿元）。德国央行表示，由于针对在华投资企业的高额债权，德国银行也面临重大风险。
德国央行称，企业和政界人士应该继续努力“降低风险，增强德国经济的韧性”。它支持加强国际贸易秩序和区域自由贸易协定，并称联邦政府的对华战略“指明了正确方向”。关于欧盟委员会采取措施减少对关键原材料的依赖，情况也是如此。
近日，多家欧洲企业批评欧盟对中欧关系实施所谓“去风险”政策。欧洲科技行业协会“Orgalim”负责人马尔特·罗汉（Malte Lohan）抱怨说，他所在行业的企业正面临“监管海啸”，“你不能只依靠布鲁塞尔的几幢办公楼来管理你的经济安全。”罗汉表示自己“非常紧张”，因为“我们的供应链出现了前所未有的转变，受到了公共干预”。
另一家行业游说团体“BusinessEurope”的副总干事路易莎·桑托斯（Luisa Santos）批评说，欧盟将安全担忧置于经济增长之上，危及了自身竞争力。
针对欧盟1月24日宣布加强经济安全以防止地缘政治对手获得敏感技术一事，中国外交部发言人汪文斌25日下午在例行记者会上表示，希望欧盟遵守自由贸易、公平竞争、开放合作等市场经济的基本准则，遵守世贸组织规则，避免出台逆全球化、泛安全化的政策举措。
德国与中国关系带来的经济风险
2024年1月24日
https://www.bundesbank.de/en/tasks/topics/economic-risks-from-germany-s-ties-with-china-922490?
中华人民共和国目前面临着严重的经济问题，这些问题也可能蔓延到德国。 最重要的是，西方发达经济体与中国之间的关系最近明显恶化，这反映在贸易和地缘政治紧张局势的加剧上。 德国央行将地缘政治发展列为经济关系风险的主要来源。 “如果这些风险成为现实，德国经济可能会受到巨大打击，”央行专家在一篇探讨德国对中国依赖程度的文章中写道。 这篇文章探讨了德国经济在多大程度上能够应对中国的经济危机或与中国的突然脱钩。 它还考虑了潜在的供应链中断，特别是金融稳定的风险。
德国经济严重依赖中国
该文章的作者写道：“在纠正信贷过度增长之后，中国发生的经济危机与过去其他国家发生的经济危机类似，对德国经济来说可能是可控的。” 德国央行的计算表明，中国爆发经济危机可能导致实际国内生产总值比危机第一年的预期下降 0.7%，第二年则下降 1%。
作者补充道：“然而，由于地缘政治危机而突然脱钩，尤其会对德国工业造成更严重的打击。”他指出，直接投资于中国的企业可能会损失很大一部分销售额 和利润基础。 诚然，到 2022 年，德国商品出口总额中只有 7% 流向中国，但汽车行业、机械工程、电子和电气工程等一些行业对中国需求的依赖程度明显更高。
作者解释说，规模要大得多的是直接或间接依赖中国关键中间投入（如电池和储能设备）以及一些原材料（如稀土）的公司。 如果这些供应枯竭，德国很可能会遭受严重的生产损失。 德国央行的一项代表性调查发现，制造业中近二分之一的企业直接或间接从中国采购关键中间投入。 还有溢出效应问题，可能会在其他经济体引发类似问题。 作者指出：“相关的经济不确定性加剧意味着德国经济的其他部门也可能受到影响。” “总体而言，经济损失可以说明显超过了与俄罗斯广泛脱钩的成本。”
金融体系也面临风险
专家们写道：“德国和中国之间密切的实体经济联系也给德国金融体系带来了相当大的风险。” 诚然，据报道德国金融中介机构与中国的直接联系相当小。 与其他国家的借款人相比，中国的借款总额仅排在第20位，而且近年来的排名也没有大幅上升。 专家表示，德国银行对严重依赖中国的国内企业和行业拥有大量风险敞口。 德中经济关系的深远破坏将对其产生重大影响，并最终增加贷款违约的可能性。 专家补充说，除此之外，德国金融体系可能会面临进一步的负担，包括全球金融市场普遍丧失信心。
与中国密切经济联系的依赖、风险和好处
在报告中，作者在风险评估中还考虑到了与中国密切关系的优势。 他们写道，过去，许多德国工业企业在中国的生产中获得了高额销售额和利润，并从对华出口中获得了高额收入。 专家们写道：“因此，从长远来看，离开中国也可能会带来商业和经济成本。” “即使有序、逐步去风险化，情况也是如此。” 德国企业将错失一个关键的销售市场，而且可以说，许多供应链的重组只能以效率损失为代价。 此外，他还说，中国在某些产品上拥有强大或准垄断地位，即使有可能减少依赖，也只能在中长期内实现。
因此，作者反对单方面脱离中国，但呼吁进一步降低风险：他们呼吁企业和政策制定者继续尝试降低风险并增强德国经济的弹性。
Economic risks from Germany’s ties with China
24.01.2024
https://www.bundesbank.de/en/tasks/topics/economic-risks-from-germany-s-ties-with-china-922490?
The People’s Republic of China currently has severe economic problems to contend with that could also spill over to Germany. On top of that, relations between advanced economies in the West and China have worsened noticeably of late, as reflected in an uptick in trade and geopolitical tensions. The Bundesbank singles out geopolitical developments as a major source of risk to economic relations. “If these risks materialise, Germany’s economy could take a huge hit,” the Bank’s experts write in an article exploring Germany’s dependence on China. The article looks into the extent to which Germany’s economy could cope with an economic crisis in China or an abrupt decoupling from that country. It also considers potential supply chain disruptions and, in particular, the risks to financial stability.
German economy heavily dependent on China
“An economic crisis in China similar to those that have occurred in the past in other countries following a correction of excessive credit growth would arguably be manageable for the German economy,” the article’s authors write. Bundesbank calculations suggest that an economic crisis in China could leave real gross domestic product 0.7% down on what would otherwise be expected in the first year of the crisis, followed by losses of 1% in the second year.
“However, an abrupt decoupling, say as a result of a geopolitical crisis, would deal a far heavier blow to German industry, in particular,” the authors added, noting that firms directly invested in China stood to lose a substantial part of their sales and profit base. Granted, just 7% of total German goods exports went to China in 2022, but there are some sectors, like the automotive sector, mechanical engineering, electronics and electrical engineering, that are significantly more reliant on Chinese demand.
Far larger, the authors explained, is the group of firms that are directly or indirectly reliant on Chinese critical intermediate inputs like batteries and energy storage devices as well as some raw materials such as rare earths. If those supplies were to dry up, Germany could well experience severe production losses. A representative Bundesbank survey has found that nearly one out of every two firms in the manufacturing sector directly or indirectly sources critical intermediate inputs from China. There was also the matter of spillover effects that could spark similar problems in other economies. “The associated heightened economic uncertainty would mean that other sectors of the German economy would probably be affected as well,” the authors noted. “Overall, the economic losses would arguably clearly eclipse the costs of the extensive decoupling from Russia.”
Financial system also at risk
“The close real economic ties between Germany and China also give rise to considerable risks for the German financial system,” the experts write. Granted, German financial intermediaries’ direct ties with China are reported as being fairly small. Compared with borrowers from other countries, China comes just 20th in terms of total amounts borrowed and has not risen significantly through the rankings in recent years either. According to the experts, German banks have large exposures to domestic enterprises and sectors that are heavily dependent on China. A far-reaching disruption to German-Chinese economic relations would affect these significantly and ultimately increase the probability of loans defaulting. On top of this, the experts added, the German financial system would likely face further burdens, including a general loss of confidence on the part of the global financial markets.
Dependence, risks, but also benefits of close economic ties with China
In their report, the authors also take into account the advantages of close ties with China in their risk assessment. In the past, they write, many German industrial firms have generated high sales and profits from production in China and high revenues from exports to China. “A move away from China would therefore likely entail business and economic costs in the long term, too,” the experts write. “This is true even given an orderly and gradual de-risking.” German enterprises would miss out on a key sales market, and many supply chains could arguably be realigned only at the expense of losses in efficiency. In addition, he continued, there are some products where China has a strong or quasi-monopolistic position, where dependence could be reduced only in the medium to long term, if at all.
The authors therefore argue against a unilateral departure from China, but call for further de-risking: they call on firms and policymakers to continue attempting to de-risk and to strengthen the resilience of the German economy.
德国央行：与中国经济突然脱钩将使德国经济面临严重动荡
2024-01-25 来源：欧洲时报
【欧洲时报1月25日冀果编译】德国希望减少对中国的经济依赖性。但德国央行在一项研究中警告道，如果这种情况突然发生，将使德国社会经济面临剧烈动荡、遭受重创。
德国新闻电视台N-TV报道，德国央行分析称，与中国经济骤然脱钩将对德国经济造成沉重打击。德国央行将发布一月月度报告。其在该报告的分析中写道，如果与中国的经济关系突然大面积恶化，德国经济将面临严重动荡的风险。然而，即使有序地从中国撤出也会给德国带来重大损失。这也将危害德国金融体系的稳定性。这已经不是德国央行第一次对德中经济依赖性发表意见了。
据德国央行统计，2022年德国向中国出口了价值1070亿欧元的商品，占其商品出口总额的7%，这使得中国成为德国经济第四大“买主国”。另一方面，德国2022年进口商品总额的13%来自中国。据德国央行称，中国是“德国最重要的外国供应商”。央行表示，鉴于德国银行对在华投资企业的高额债权，与中国经济脱钩也将给德国银行带来巨大风险。截至2022年底，德国银行对这些企业的债权额达到了约2200亿欧元。
德国央行表示，中国经济增长放缓将对德国产生重大影响。德国国内生产总值有可能在第一年下降0.7%，而到了第二年，甚至可能会下降近1%。
与中国脱钩损失巨大
德国央行表示，与中国经济脱钩尤其将对德国工业造成沉重打击。活跃在中国的大公司继而可能会损失很大一部分销售额和利润基础。“但那些直接或间接依赖中国关键中间产品的企业范围可要大得多。”此类关键商品包括诸如蓄电池和电池组等电气技术中间产品、稀土等原材料，当然还包括抗生素等活性药物成分。如果没有中国供货，德国企业短期内便会面临严重生产损失。下游产业链也将受到影响。“总体而言，（与中国脱钩所造成的）整体经济损失将明显超过与俄罗斯大范围脱钩的成本。”
德国央行表示，德国金融体系也面临着潜在风险。如果与中国的经济关系出现大面积中断，则德国银行对严重依赖中国的公司和行业的债权将受到影响。信贷违约风险可能会大幅增加。此外，预计德国金融体系还将承受进一步的负担，例如在全球金融市场上的信任危机。
德国央行认为，德国企业和政界人士应采取进一步措施，“以降低风险，增强德国经济韧性”。德国央行表示支持强化国际贸易秩序以及区域自由贸易协定。
