[Highlights]
慕尼黑安全会议：欧盟地缘政治议程的四个任务
25.02.2024 Josep Borrell，欧洲外交与安全政策高级代表
目前在我们的议程上的第三个战略问题是关于我们与所谓的“全球南方”国家的关系。 我知道“全球南方”一词涵盖了非常不同的现实，但是它仍然引发了一个真正的问题。 如果当前的全球地缘政治紧张局势继续朝着“西方抗其他人”的方向发展，那么欧洲的未来风险是黯淡的。 西方统治的时代确实已经明确结束了。 尽管从理论上理解了这一点，但我们并不总是从这个新现实中得出所有实际结论。
正如我们最近在萨赫勒（Sahel）和非洲其他地方看到的那样，对乌克兰战争的战争与加沙战争的结合大大增加了这一风险。 “全球南方”中的许多人指责我们“双重标准”。 尽管俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略战争通常是帝国主义和殖民主义者，但俄罗斯设法利用了这种情况。 我们需要拒绝这种叙述，而且不仅要用言语解决这个问题：在接下来的几个月中，我们必须付出巨大的努力来赢得合作伙伴的信任。
Munich Security Conference: the four tasks on the EU's geopolitical agenda
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/munich-security-conference-four-tasks-eu%E2%80%99s-geopolitical-agenda_en#top
25.02.2024 Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
The third strategic issue currently on our agenda is about our relations with the so-called “Global South” countries. I know that the term "Global South" encompasses very different realities, but it nevertheless raises a real issue. If the current global geopolitical tensions continue to evolve in the direction of "the West against the Rest", Europe’s future risks to be bleak. The era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended. While this has been theoretically understood, we have not always drawn all practical conclusions from this new reality.
The combination of the war of aggression against Ukraine and the war in Gaza has significantly increased this risk, as we have recently seen in the Sahel and elsewhere in Africa. Many in the “Global South” accuse us of “double standards”. Russia has managed to take advantage of the situation although its war of aggression against Ukraine is typically an imperialist and colonialist one. We need to push back on this narrative but also to address this issue not only with words: in the coming months, we must make a massive effort to win back the trust of our partners.
欧盟外交政策负责人承认"西方主导地位已经结束",并警告"西方对抗其他国家"地缘政治
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/02/26/western-dominance-ending-eu-josep-borrell/
作者：本·诺顿 2024年2月25日
欧盟最高外交官何塞普·博雷尔承认，"西方主导的时代确实已经彻底结束"。 他警告说，欧盟绝不能将世界分成“西方与其他国家”，因为“‘南半球’中的许多人指责我们‘双重标准’”。
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欧洲最高外交官承认“西方主导的时代确实已经彻底结束”。
欧盟外交事务高级代表何塞普·博雷尔2月25日在欧盟外交部门官网发表博文表示。
他警告说：“如果当前的全球地缘政治紧张局势继续朝着‘西方对抗其他国家’的方向发展，欧洲的未来将面临黯淡的风险。”
博雷尔表示，乌克兰和加沙的战争，以及非洲萨赫勒地区的反殖民起义，“大大增加了欧洲在地缘政治上变得无关紧要的风险”，并感叹“俄罗斯已经成功地利用了这一局势”。
这位欧洲外交政策负责人透露，“改善我们与‘全球南方’的关系”是“欧盟地缘政治议程上的四项主要任务”之一。
“‘南半球’的许多人指责我们‘双重标准’”，他承认。
何塞普·博雷尔 欧盟时代西方统治结束
博雷尔以偶尔发表坦率评论而闻名，他承认大多数欧洲外交官都没有说出来的令人难以忽视的事实。
2022年，欧盟外交政策负责人坦言，“我们的繁荣基于中国和俄罗斯——能源和市场”，“来自俄罗斯的廉价能源”和“进入中国大市场”是欧洲经济的基石 。
然而，博雷尔坚持认为欧洲不得将世界分为“西方与其他国家”，这与他在 2024 年 2 月的同一篇文章中坚持欧盟必须扩大“与主要伙伴，特别是美国的合作”相矛盾。
这位欧洲高级外交官写道，“最近几个月提醒我们，北约对我们的集体防御仍然非常重要”，并呼吁加强以美国为首的军事集团。
2023年，颇具影响力的智库欧洲外交关系委员会发表了题为《附庸的艺术》的白皮书。 它警告“欧洲将成为美国的附庸”，并指出乌克兰战争“暴露了欧洲人对美国的深刻依赖”。
欧盟外交政策负责人确实认识到“西方与其他国家对立”是错误的，但他同时呼吁深化美国和欧洲之间的跨大西洋联盟，这只会加剧地缘政治分歧。
西方与联合国其他国家
在国际舞台上，欧洲频频与美国一道违背国际社会意愿。
在联合国，美国和欧洲经常一起投票，而绝大多数位于南半球的成员国则投反对票。
联合国投票国家平均 美国 中国
资料来源：阿拉斯泰尔·伊恩·约翰斯顿，“秩序世界中的中国：重新思考北京国际关系中的合规与挑战”，《国际安全》（2019 年）
从1983年到2012年，美国在联合国大会上仅在32.7%的时间里与世界上大多数国家一起投票。
1988年，只有15.4%的联大投票与美国的投票一致。
欧洲是世界上唯一一贯投票支持美国的地区。
联合国投票同意美国
2023年11月，西方在联合国大会有关民主、人权、文化多样性、雇佣军和单方面强制措施（制裁）的决议中对世界绝大多数国家投了反对票。
2023年4月，西方在联合国人权理事会上再次集体投票反对其他国家，捍卫违反国际法的单边制裁。
2022年12月，西方在联合国大会呼吁建立新的国际经济秩序的投票中投票反对地球其他国家。
慕尼黑安全会议：欧盟地缘政治议程上的四项任务
2024年2月25日 何塞普·博雷尔，欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表/欧盟委员会副主席
HR/VP 博客 – 上周，在慕尼黑安全会议 (MSC) 上，我提出了欧盟地缘政治议程上的四项主要任务：更多、更快地支持乌克兰； 结束加沙的人道主义灾难并实施两国解决方案； 改善我们与“全球南方”的关系并加强我们的国防和安全。 我还与来自世界各地的合作伙伴进行了大量双边会议。今年，慕尼黑的气氛特别凝重。 正如我两年前在介绍《战略指南针》时所说，两场战争近在眼前，世界各地还有许多其他火药桶，每个人终于意识到欧洲正处于危险之中。
在会议的第一天，我们了解到阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼在西伯利亚的一个流放地疑似死亡，他在那里被普京总统慢慢谋杀。 我见到了他的妻子，并邀请她参加上周一的外交事务委员会，我们向阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼致敬，她向我们介绍了俄罗斯政治局势的最新情况。
在慕尼黑期间，我还与联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯、哥伦比亚总统古斯塔沃·佩特罗、中国外交部长王毅、印度外长尚卡尔、 土耳其外交部长哈坎·菲达姆和美国参议员克里斯·范·霍伦。 我与塞尔维亚总统武契奇和科索沃总理库尔蒂在单独的会议上讨论了如何缓和紧张局势，但不幸的是没有成功。
我多次会见黎巴嫩总理米卡提、沙特阿拉伯外长费萨尔亲王、埃及外长舒克里、海合会秘书长阿布代维、艾德等，讨论中东局势 ，挪威外交部长。 我们的重点是结束加沙战斗，释放人质，缓解加沙地带人道主义灾难，避免冲突在该地区蔓延，并推动有效落实两国解决方案。
我还在一次全体会议上就“欧盟下一个地缘政治议程”提出了自己的看法。 虽然我们的优先事项不断因事件而改变，但目前我们的议程中占据主导地位的是四个项目：俄罗斯侵略乌克兰的战争和加沙再次爆发的战争，这两个问题都直接将欧盟的安全置于危险之中。 另外两个结构性问题也需要采取紧急行动：改善我们与所谓的“全球南方”的关系以及加强我们的国防和安全能力。
更多更快地支持乌克兰
关于乌克兰，俄罗斯作为帝国主义和殖民主义列强对乌克兰发动侵略战争已经过去了两年多的时间。 乌克兰正面临一场旷日持久、高强度的战争，双方伤亡不断增加。 我们决不能让俄罗斯的侵略行为得到回报。 如果普京获胜，这将向全球发出一个非常危险的信号，即强国可以单方面改变边界。
这场战争使我们处于一种需要采取与平常和平时期完全不同的做法的境地。 我们必须转向更加敏捷、更加投入和更加专注。 如果我们在未来几个月内不采取足够迅速的行动，乌克兰就有失去阵地的风险。 我们必须更多、更快地支持乌克兰，特别是在火炮弹药方面。 现在就需要它们，而不是几个月后。 目前的问题不再是真正缺乏弹药生产能力；而是真正的弹药生产能力不足。 相反，这是资金和订单的短缺。
我们正在目睹一种新型战争：一场让人想起第一次世界大战的战壕和星球大战的机器人的战争。 技术，特别是无人机和人工智能正在塑造这场战争的结果。 我们需要想方设法为乌克兰提供最新的技术发展。 我最近访问乌克兰期间，参观的无人机工厂给我留下了深刻的印象。 我们还必须为自己汲取这种新战争方式的后果，并加大对国防创新的投资。
我们还必须向乌克兰提供长期安全承诺。 欧盟成员国已经签署了相应的双边协议，我们也将在欧盟层面这样做。 我们继续努力在欧洲和平基金内设立一个新的专用乌克兰援助基金，以保证对该国的长期军事支持。 然而，欧盟可以给予乌克兰的最重要的安全承诺是欧盟成员国身份。 去年 12 月，欧洲理事会为此开辟了道路，我们必须继续充分致力于这一进程。
结束加沙战斗并实施两国解决方案
在中东，欧盟的安全风险也非常高。 如果我们不能帮助结束加沙人为的人道主义灾难并最终实施两国解决方案，这场冲突就有可能点燃整个地区。 这对欧洲的影响将在许多方面产生深远的影响：移民、恐怖主义、内部紧张局势、能源危机、海上航线中断，正如我们在红海所目睹的那样……
鉴于正在发生的重大人道主义灾难，结束加沙战斗显然是最紧迫的任务。 不过，东耶路撒冷和约旦河西岸的局势也非常令人担忧。 升针对巴勒斯坦人的暴力程度此前已经非常高，自 10 月 7 日以来急剧升级。 约旦河西岸正在沸腾，如果近东救济工程处必须停止支持巴勒斯坦人民，我们可能即将发生重大爆炸。 从实施两国方案来看，西岸和东耶路撒冷实际上是主要障碍。 为了寻求第二天的政治解决方案，我们不能只关注加沙，而应关注所有被占领的巴勒斯坦领土。
欧盟能否为地区和平发挥作用，最终落实我们30多年来一直倡导的两国解决方案？ 我坚信我们可以。 这不仅是可能的，也是我们的责任和利益。 我们已经与许多重要的区域行为体进行了接触，特别是通过 10 月 7 日之前发起的和平日倡议。 然而，为了取得成功，我们需要更加团结，就像我们一直支持乌克兰一样。 在中东问题上，我们看到了更加多样化的做法，许多成员国似乎更愿意推行自己的战略。
阿拉伯国家正在准备一项新的和平倡议，我们最近与我们的阿拉伯伙伴进行了很多讨论，包括在一月份的外交事务委员会和地中海安全会议上。 我们正在等待他们的正式建议，之后我们应该共同努力，有效落实两国方案。 如果巴勒斯坦人没有结束占领和建立自己国家的明确前景，中东就不会有和平，以色列也不会有真正的安全。 从长远来看，仅靠军事手段无法保证安全。
改善我们与“南半球”的联系
目前我们议程上的第三个战略问题是我们与所谓“全球南方”国家的关系。 我知道“全球南方”一词包含了截然不同的现实，但它仍然提出了一个真正的问题。 如果当前全球地缘政治紧张局势继续朝着“西方对抗其他国家”的方向发展，欧洲的未来将面临暗淡的风险。 西方统治的时代确实已经彻底结束。 虽然这在理论上已经被理解，但我们并不总是从这个新现实中得出所有实际结论。
正如我们最近在萨赫勒地区和非洲其他地区所看到的那样，侵略乌克兰的战争和加沙战争的结合大大增加了这种风险。 “南半球”的许多人指责我们实行“双重标准”。 尽管俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略战争是典型的帝国主义和殖民主义战争，但俄罗斯却成功地利用了这一局势。 我们需要反驳这种说法，而且不仅要用言语来解决这个问题：在接下来的几个月里，我们必须付出巨大的努力来赢回合作伙伴的信任。
加强我们的国防能力和国防工业
最后但并非最不重要的一点是，我们需要大力加强我们的安全和国防能力。 显然，我们尤其必须做好与俄罗斯长期紧张关系的准备，俄罗斯可能会在未来几个月内升级对北约国家的政治和军事挑衅。 这已经成为我过去四年工作的核心：作为高级代表，我不仅负责欧盟共同外交和安全政策，还负责共同安全和防务政策，自 2019 年以来，我专门负责欧盟共同外交和安全政策。 为了这个第二维度付出了很多努力。
在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前，我们启动了战略指南针——新的欧盟安全和防务战略——因为我确信“欧洲处于危险之中”。 当时，没有人真正注意到或认识到事态的严重性。 现在，欧洲防务重新成为公众辩论的中心，而不仅仅是在地中海安全会议上。 确实如此。
我近年来多次阐述，欧洲经历了长期的无声裁军，军事能力逐渐丧失，而我们的国防工业却出现了危险的萎缩。 我们现在已经开始扭转这一趋势。 过去十年来，我们的国防预算再次增长。 自从俄罗斯侵略战争开始以来，我们已经开始重启我们的国防工业：我们的火炮弹药生产能力增长了40%。 虽然还有很长的路要走，但我们正朝着正确的方向前进。
我们必须与主要伙伴，特别是美国合作，维持这些努力。 最近几个月提醒我们，北约对于我们的集体防御仍然非常重要，但也需要像我们的美国朋友一直要求的那样，加强其欧洲支柱。 美国未来参与欧洲安全的程度存在不确定性，我们必须为不同的情况做好准备。 无论美国大选结果如何，很明显，我们未来将不得不越来越依赖我们自己的力量。
我知道这有多复杂在欧洲各地经济和社会形势困难之际，增加国防开支。 几十年来，我们更喜欢黄油而不是大炮，这是可以理解的。 但如果我们无法保卫自己，我们不仅会失去黄油，还会失去自由和民主。
为了最大限度地提高我们努力的有效性，我们需要果断地加强协调，以避免不必要的重复，填补我们防御能力的空白并提高互操作性。 我们已经说了很久了，现在我们终于要做到了。
这还需要一个更强大、更有弹性的欧洲国防工业。 这就是为什么，根据欧洲理事会的任务，我作为负责共同安全和防务政策的高级代表和欧洲防务局局长，将与委员会一起在未来几天提出一项新的欧洲防务工业战略，以促进 我们国防工业的工业和技术能力。
我们与负责我们工业生态系统（包括国防工业）的布雷顿专员进行了良好的合作。 对于未来，尽管与其他工业和技术部门存在很强的相互依赖性，但单独为该工业部门设立专员可能是一种选择。
然而，根据条约，国防政策本身仍然是成员国的专有权限，只有欧盟成员国拥有军队和国防能力。 我们在欧盟层面的责任，作为负责共同安全和防务政策的高级代表的责任，不是建立“一支欧洲军队”，而是以协调的方式动员我们各国的军队，以便更有效地应对共同的挑战。
我们需要让它们更好地协同工作，更具互操作性，避免重复，解决不足，并能够在需要时启动共同操作。 在我的任期内，我启动了七次此类欧盟任务，上周一是最后一次，以维护红海的航行自由。
加强我们的国防能力和国防工业的工作才刚刚开始。 我们必须加速并集中精力共同努力，以确保欧盟及其成员国拥有我们成为地缘政治参与者的雄心所需的手段。
慕尼黑安全会议 Pictoquote © EUROPEAN UNION, 2024
'Western dominance has ended', EU foreign-policy chief admits, warning of 'West against the Rest' geopolitics
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/02/26/western-dominance-ended-eu-josep-borrell/
By Ben Norton Feb 25, 2024
The European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, admitted that the “era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended”. He warned that the EU must not divide the world into “the West against the Rest”, as “many in the ‘Global South’ accuse us of ‘double standards’”.
The 2023 summit of G7 leaders in Hiroshima, Japan
Europe's top diplomat has acknowledged that the “era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended”.
Josep Borrell, the European Union's high representative for foreign affairs, wrote this in a blog post on the official website of the EU's diplomatic service on February 25.
“If the current global geopolitical tensions continue to evolve in the direction of ‘the West against the Rest’, Europe’s future risks to be bleak”, he warned.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza, along with the anti-colonial uprisings in Africa’s Sahel region, have “significantly increased this risk” of Europe becoming geopolitically irrelevant, Borrell said, lamenting that “Russia has managed to take advantage of the situation”.
The European foreign-policy chief revealed that “improving our relations with the ‘Global South'” is one of ” the four main tasks on EU’s geopolitical agenda”.
“Many in the ‘Global South’ accuse us of ‘double standards'”, he confessed.
Borrell is known for sporadically making frank comments, admitting inconvenient truths that most European diplomats leave unsaid.
In 2022, the EU foreign-policy chief confessed, “Our prosperity was based on China and Russia – energy and market”, with “cheap energy coming from Russia” and “access to the big China market” as the cornerstone of the European economy.
However, Borrell’s insistence that Europe must not divide the world into the “West against the Rest” was contradicted by his insistence in the same February 2024 article that the EU must expand its “cooperation with key partners, and in particular the US”.
The top European diplomat wrote that “recent months have reminded us how important NATO remains to our collective defence”, calling to strengthen the US-led military bloc.
In 2023, the influential think tank the European Council on Foreign Relations published a white paper titled “The art of vassalisation”. It warned of “Europe becoming an American vassal”, noting how the war in Ukraine had “revealed Europeans’ profound dependence on the US”.
The EU’s foreign-policy chief does recognize that it would be an error to pit “the West against the Rest”, yet he is simultaneously calling for deepening the trans-Atlantic alliance between the US and Europe, which only exacerbates that geopolitical division.
The West vs. the rest at the UN
On the global stage, Europe frequently joins the United States in violating the will of the international community.
At the United Nations, the US and Europe often vote together, while the vast majority of member states, which are located in the Global South, vote against them.
Source: Alastair Iain Johnston, “China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing’s International Relations”, International Security (2019)
The US only voted with the majority of the world at the UN General Assembly 32.7% of the time from 1983 to 2012.
In 1988, just 15.4% of overall UNGA votes coincided with the US vote.
Europe is the only region of the world that consistently votes with the US.
In November 2023, the West voted against the vast majority of the world in UN General Assembly resolutions concerning democracy, human rights, and cultural diversity, mercenaries and unilateral coercive measures (sanctions).
In April 2023, the West once again voted as a bloc against the other countries on the UN Human Rights Council, defending unilateral sanctions, which violate international law.
In December 2022, the West voted against the rest of the planet in UN General Assembly votes calling for a new international economic order.
Munich Security Conference: the four tasks on the EU's geopolitical agenda
HR/VP Blog – Last week, at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), I presented the four main tasks on EU’s geopolitical agenda: supporting Ukraine more and quicker; putting an end to the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and implementing the two-state solution; improving our relations with the “Global South” and strengthening our defence and security. I also had a large number of bilateral meetings with our partners from all over the world.
© EUROPEAN UNION, 2024
This year, the atmosphere in Munich was one of particular gravity. With two wars on its doorstep, and many other powder kegs all over the world, everyone was finally aware that Europe is in danger, as I said two years ago when presenting the Strategic Compass.
On the first day of the conference, we learned about the suspect death of Alexei Navalny in a penal colony in Siberia, who has been slowly murdered there by President Putin. I met his wife and invited her to attend the Foreign Affairs Council last Monday, where we paid tribute to Alexei Navalny and she updated us on the political situation in Russia.
During my stay in Munich, I exchanged also on the most pressing global and bilateral issues with Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the UN, Gustavo Petro, President of Columbia, Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of China, Subrahmanyam Shankar, Foreign Minister of India, Hakan Fidam, Foreign Minister of Türkyie, and Chris Van Hollen, US Senator. With Serbian President Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti, I discussed, in separate meetings, how to deescalate the tensions, without success unfortunately.
In different meetings, I discussed the situation in the Middle East with Najib Mikati, Prime Minister of Lebanon, Prince Faisal, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, Sameh Shoukry, Foreign Minister of Egypt, Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi, Secretary General of the GCC and Espen Eide, Foreign Minister of Norway. We focused on our efforts to put an end to the fighting in Gaza, free the hostages, alleviate the humanitarian catastrophe in the strip, avoid the conflict to spread in the region and go forward to implement effectively the two state solution.
I also presented my views in a plenary session on the “EU’s next geopolitical agenda”. While our priorities are constantly reshaped by events, four items currently dominate our agenda: the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and the war that has flared up again in Gaza, both of which are directly putting the security of the EU at risk. Two more structural issues are also requiring urgent action: improving our relations with the so-called Global South and strengthening our defence and security capabilities.
Supporting Ukraine more and quicker
Regarding Ukraine, two long years have passed since Russia started waging its war of aggression against Ukraine, acting as an imperialist and colonialist power. Ukraine is facing a long and high-intensity war, where casualties are rising on both sides. We must not allow Russia to be rewarded for its aggression. If Putin prevails, this would send a very dangerous signal globally that powerful countries can change borders unilaterally.
This war put us in a situation that requires a completely different approach from that of ordinary peace times. We have to shift towards much greater agility, commitment, and focus. If we do not act swiftly enough in coming months, Ukraine risks losing ground. We have to support Ukraine more, and we have to do it quicker, in particular regarding artillery ammunition. They are needed now, not in a few months. The issue is not currently a real lack of ammunition production capacity any longer; rather, it is a shortfall in funding and orders.
We are witnessing a new kind of war: one that evokes both the trenches of the First World War and the robots of Star Wars. Technology, in particular drones and artificial intelligence are shaping the outcome of this war. We need to find ways to provide Ukraine with the latest technological developments. During my recent visit to Ukraine, I was very impressed by the drone factories I visited. We also have to draw the consequences of this new way of warfare for our self and invest more in defence innovation.
We have also to provide Ukraine with long-term security commitments. EU member states are already signing corresponding bilateral agreements and we will do the same at EU level. We continue working to create a new dedicated Ukraine Assistance Fund within the European Peace Facility in order to guarantee long term military support to the country. However, the most important security commitment the EU can give to Ukraine is EU membership. Last December the European Council opened the way to this and we have to remain fully committed to this process.
Putting an end to the fighting in Gaza and implementing the two-state solution
In the Middle East, the stakes are also very high for EU’s security. If we fail to help end the man made humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and finally implement the two-state solution, this conflict risks setting the whole region ablaze. The repercussions for Europe would be profound in many respects: migration, terrorism, internal tensions, energy crisis, interrupted sea routes as we are already witnessing in the Red Sea…
In light of the ongoing major humanitarian catastrophe, putting an end to the fighting in Gaza is obviously the most urgent task. However, the situation in East Jerusalem and the West Bank is also very worrying. The level of violence against Palestinians, already very high before, has escalated dramatically since the 7 October. The West Bank is boiling and if UNRWA has to stop supporting the Palestinian people, we may be approaching a major explosion. In view of implementing the two-state solution, the West Bank and East Jerusalem are in reality the main obstacles. In search for a political solution for the day after we must not look exclusively at Gaza, but to all occupied Palestinian territories.
Can the EU play a role in bringing peace to the region and finally implement the two-state solution that we have been advocating for more than 30 years? I am convinced we can. It is not only possible, it is also our duty and in our interest. We have already engaged with many important regional actors, notably through the Peace Day initiative launched before the 7 October. However, to be successful, we need to be more united, as we have been in support of Ukraine. On the Middle East, we have seen a greater diversity of approaches, and many member states seem to prefer pursuing their own strategies.
Arab countries are preparing a new peace initiative, and we have recently had a lot of discussion with our Arab partners, including at the Foreign Affairs Council in January and at the MSC. We are awaiting their formal proposal and after that, we should join efforts to effectively implement the two-state solution. Without a clear prospect for the Palestinians of an end of the occupation and the creation of their own state, there will be no peace in the Middle East and no real security for Israel. In the long term, security cannot be ensured only by military means.
Improving our links with the “Global South”
The third strategic issue currently on our agenda is about our relations with the so-called “Global South” countries. I know that the term "Global South" encompasses very different realities, but it nevertheless raises a real issue. If the current global geopolitical tensions continue to evolve in the direction of "the West against the Rest", Europe’s future risks to be bleak. The era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended. While this has been theoretically understood, we have not always drawn all practical conclusions from this new reality.
The combination of the war of aggression against Ukraine and the war in Gaza has significantly increased this risk, as we have recently seen in the Sahel and elsewhere in Africa. Many in the “Global South” accuse us of “double standards”. Russia has managed to take advantage of the situation although its war of aggression against Ukraine is typically an imperialist and colonialist one. We need to push back on this narrative but also to address this issue not only with words: in the coming months, we must make a massive effort to win back the trust of our partners.
Reinforcing our defence capacities and our defence industry
Last but not least, we need to massively reinforce our capacities in security and defence. We must obviously be prepared in particular for a prolonged period of tensions with Russia, which may be tempted to escalate its political and military provocations against NATO countries in the coming months. It has already been at the core of my work during the last four years: as High Representative, I am not only in charge of the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy but also of the Common Security and Defence Policy and since 2019 I have devoted a lot of effort to this second dimension.
Before the Russian aggression against Ukraine, we launched the Strategic Compass - the new EU security and defence strategy - because I was convinced that “Europe was in danger”. At that time, nobody really noticed or realised the gravity of the situation. Now, European defence is back at the centre of the public debate, and not only at the MSC. Rightly so.
I have repeatedly explained in recent years that Europe has gone though a long period of silent disarmament, gradually losing military capacity while our defence industry has been shrinking dangerously. We have now started to reverse this trend. For the last ten years our defence budgets have been growing again. And since the start of the Russian war of aggression, we have begun to reboot our defence industry: our capacity to produce artillery ammunitions has grown by 40 %. It is still a long way to go but we are moving in the right direction.
We must sustain these efforts in cooperation with key partners, and in particular the US. The recent months have reminded us how important NATO remains to our collective defence, but also the need to strengthen its European pillar as our American friends have been asking for. There are uncertainties regarding the future level of US engagement in the European security and we must be prepared for different scenarios. Regardless of the outcome of the American elections, it is clear that we will have to rely more and more on our own forces in the future.
I know how complicated it is to spend more on defence at a time when the economic and social situation is difficult everywhere in Europe. For decades, we have, understandably, preferred butter to cannons. But it we are not able to defend ourselves, we risk losing not only our butter but also freedom and democracy.
To maximise the effectiveness of our efforts, we need to decisively step up our coordination to avoid unnecessary duplication, fill the gaps in our defence capacities and increase interoperability. We have said it for a long time, now we must finally do it.
This requires also a stronger and more resilient European defence industry. This is why, as tasked by the European Council, I, as High Representative responsible for our Common Security and Defence Policy and Head of the European Defence Agency, together with the Commission, will present in coming days a new European Defence Industrial Strategy to boost the industrial and technological capacity of our defence industry.
We had an excellent cooperation with Commissioner Breton, in charge of our industrial ecosystem, which includes the defence industry. For the future, a Commissioner for this industrial sector alone could be an option, although strong interdependencies exist with other industrial and technological sectors.
According to the Treaties, defence policy itself remains however an exclusive competence of the Member States and only EU member states have armies and defence capabilities. Our responsibility at EU level, my responsibility as High Representative in charge of the Common Security and Defence Policy, is not to build ‘one European army’, but to mobilize our national armies in a coordinated way in order to face common challenges more effectively.
We need to make them work together better, to be more interoperable, to avoid duplications, address shortfalls, and to be able to launch common operations when needed. During my mandate, I launched seven such EU missions with last Monday the last one in order to safeguard freedom of navigation in in the Red Sea.
The work has only started to strengthen our defence capacities and our defence industry. We must accelerate and focus on working together to make sure the EU and its member states have the means required by our ambition to be a geopolitical player.
