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107,876次观看 2024年6月13日
从TikTok禁令到芯片禁令，从限制出口到增加关税，美国的对华政策到底是什么？今年4月，我们有幸连线到美国信息技术与创新基金会（ITIF）的创始人兼主席罗伯特·阿特金森教授。美国信息技术与创新基金会是美国最具盛名的顶级智库之一。他是怎么看美国对华的芯片禁令呢，让我们来听听他是怎么说的。
想要了解中国的真实声音，欢迎关注 https://thechinaacademy.org/
Born: November 22, 1954 (age 69 years), Calgary
Organization founded: Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
The Real Contest With China
https://itif.org/publications/2023/08/28/the-real-contest-with-china/By Michael Brown and Robert D. Atkinson August 28, 2023
As Beijing has become Washington’s overriding challenge of the 21st century, the Chinese leadership has made clear that it aims to displace the United States as the world’s technological and economic superpower. As Michael Brown and Rob Atkinson write in Foreign Affairs, this form of competition has no historic precedent. China has a much larger and more technologically advanced economy than did the Soviet Union at its peak, and in contrast to its Soviet predecessor it is deeply integrated into the global economy. The rivalry between the two powers has significant diplomatic, military, and ideological aspects, but its most important dimensions are technological and economic.
China views dominance of advanced industries as a key to national security. It aims to increase its power by establishing global preeminence in a broad array of developing technologies. Many of these, such as biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and aerospace, are current U.S. strengths. As a result, it is likely that China will continue employing “innovation mercantilist” trade and economic policies—including outright intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer, along with massive subsidies of domestic industries—to achieve this goal. These tactics have already been successfully demonstrated in steel, shipbuilding, solar panels, high-speed rail, LCD displays, batteries, and advanced telecommunications.
Washington has yet to grapple with the full range of this threat. U.S. policies thus far have been focused on limiting intellectual property theft, countering unfair trade practices, constraining China’s semiconductor industry through export controls, and strengthening the U.S. military. The CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Congress last year, promise to support domestic semiconductor and clean technology production, but they fall short of offering a comprehensive approach to winning the technology race. Similarly, the Biden administration’s policy to “invest, align, and compete,” outlined by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in May 2022, does not support the funding, private-sector coordination, or competitive advantages at the scale that is required to retain the country’s supremacy in advanced technologies.
Instead, Washington must prepare for an all-out effort to win the competition with China. This means a multigenerational campaign that will involve large investments in science, technology development, and domestic manufacturing; an engaged private sector to build national capabilities; and sustained actions to make Chinese tactics unprofitable. To carry this out, the United States will need to identify the critical and emerging technologies of the coming century and develop coherent and detailed plans to nurture them.
@hongdeli6148
50秒钟前
中国人平均智商高欧美10点，您看国际智力型竞赛，各个国家队都有华人。欧美社会治安混乱，人们心理压力大，影响大脑神经元发育，降低智力水平，已经进入死循环。美国政客越折腾越加快玩完。
@qingzhu5741 4周前
美國對中國的限制其實是在限制自己的發展。
@saibinlin4407 3周前
前段时间有一美国议员讲了一段话，我觉得代表了美国人的真实思想，他的大致意思是，即使中国按照美国的规则体系和法律意愿来配合美国，美国一样还会限制中国的发展。因为中国破坏了美国人可以在轻松的发展氛围中来主导和引领世界发展的模式。中国以难以想象的增长让美国人深切感受到了危机，美国人不愿意看到任何一个强大的对手，即使是德国和印度都不可接受，更何况是共产主义中国。所以美国人所有的行动并不只是让中国屈服，而是要把中国赶回到原始社会。
@pneumonoul8639
4周前
美國要檢討如今日漸衰弱的國勢根本是自身的問題，和中國崛起沒半毛錢關係。
說穿了還不就是忌妒中國比你強，難道要中國停下前行的腳步，難道要中國和你一起逐漸衰敗？美國還真是病得不輕。
@samchui9246
4周前
白人至上的年代已經過去
@xiaowenou4354
4周前
中国每年培养这么多工科生，真不是吃素的，好多孩子都很聪明。
@user-je2ew6vl7v
4周前
只是限制生产芯片的工具而已，不卖高端芯片也无所谓，但是物理规律都是一样的，技术突破是时间问题
@davidchung4691
4周前
Fair comment coming from an American!
@teoeehuat8742
4周前
You are only one of the American who telling the truth things. I Respect what you said.
@jianchiwei5379
4周前
白宫 --> 自宫
@maplered5351
4周前（修改过）
美国党派利益已经凌驾于美国国家利益，但是没有任何一个本土势力可以平衡党派利益用于服务国家利益，这就是美国制度的缺陷。虽然美国人也明白党派争斗，但是无法改变这才是美国的现实。说一个最现实的例子，中国电动车就全球而言发展最为迅速，也相对于西方而言会更便宜，但是美国的议员以及政党为维护自身的利益限制或加大关税禁止中国电动车进入美国，大家可以试想一个问题，这样的行为谁会获利，无非就是美国的汽车制造商以及收获政治现金的政客以及利益团体，但是这样的人口规模只占美国总人口的极少部分。当美国公民需要购买汽车时，他们往往需要多花更多资金来购买美国生产的本土汽车。这样行为本身就是无视消费者利益的行为，任何国家都是少数人掌握大量财富，而中等或以下收入的人群确占据总人口的大部分。而美国制定政策群体忽视大多数人民的实际利益，相对保护极少数人的利益，这样的行为本身就不符合国家的整体利益。所以美国政治制度本身是有缺陷的，往往很难从自身去修复问题，明明知道问题是什么，但是从政治的角度应该理性的分析问题解决问题，从国家长远规划中寻求平衡解决之道，但是美国就2党政治而言，并没有另外的力量可以让2党回归理性。
American partisan interests have overridden American national interests, but there is no homegrown power that can balance partisan interests for use in the service of national interests, and that is the flaw in the American system. Although Americans also understand partisan fighting, but can not change this is the reality of the United States. Say a most realistic example, China's electric car on the world's most rapid development, but also compared to the West will be cheaper, but U.S. lawmakers as well as political parties in order to protect their own interests to limit or increase tariffs to prohibit China's electric car into the U.S., we can imagine a question, such behavior who will profit, is only the U.S. automakers and harvest political cash politicians and interest groups, but the size of the population only accounts for a fraction of the U.S. population, but this population is only a fraction of the size of the U.S. population. But the size of such a population is only a tiny fraction of the total US population. When U.S. citizens need to buy a car, they often have to spend more money to buy a homegrown U.S.-made car. Such behavior is in itself a disregard for the interests of the consumer. In any country, it is the few who hold the bulk of the wealth, while the middle-income or lower-income groups make up the majority of the population. And the United States policy-making groups ignore the actual interests of the majority of the people, relatively protect the interests of a very small number of people, such behavior itself is not in line with the overall interests of the country. So the U.S. political system itself is flawed, it is often difficult to repair the problem from itself, know what the problem is, but from a political point of view should be rational analysis of the problem to solve the problem, from the country's long-term planning to seek a balanced solution, but the U.S. on the 2-party politics, there is no other force can make the 2 parties return to rationality.
@yulu4835
4周前
前提是美国政治制度允许，4年一届的政策制定者在为竞选方向付出极大精力的情况下几乎不可能。。。现在的两党竞选压力已经到了明显的政治相互打压的地步了，两党的建制派已经压不住了，而需要做出重大变革的政策又不太可能会出自建制派，矛盾凸显的越来越严重啦。
@michaelchen4879
4周前
China's leaders and scientists know very well to tackle any challenges calmly. They will not get panic. But in the US, politicians only know sanctions after sanctions. What protectionism can do for the good of America's future? Wolf Amendment has been there since 2011. But it is now Bill Nelson asked China by saying that " Can you share some of the soils and rocks sampled from the far side of the moon with us for our study?" And surprisingly,China have answered :"OK,No problem." What a shame to the US. By contrast, which country is actually way behind?
@cashqian823
3周前
焦虑的不是美国，而是控制美国的财阀
@user-ph2uq4zf9b
3周前（修改过）
是猶太人的焦慮吧!
猶太人已經控制了美國，美國已經控制了G7，G7已經控制了G20，G20已經控制了世界，只差俄羅斯與中國 (其他各國都不是問題)，俄羅斯已經進入程序，但是因為中國因素讓這程序變得複雜與冗長，還可能翻盤，中國人真麻煩。
有一批中國人還將猶太人的陰謀公諸於世，協助俄羅斯的金融免於崩潰，協助一些金融戰失敗的國家免於破產，更讓伊朗與沙特達成和解互相建交，真是可惡啊!
最可惡的是有一根刺，直接刺向以色列，刺向猶太人的老巢，這是何等的不敬!
@kangmeisong2390
4周前
You are a true strategist。
@phillee8666
4周前
Trade is two lane street and it has to benefit both partners. Just like someone going to a restaurant to have a lunch. You will have a good meal but you have to pay the food you eat. The US thinks that they could have a lunch without paying the bill that will benefit the others. That is exactly the colonialism mentality. Who in the world will serve you without pay, slave? If US does not want others to be benefited, stay home. That is even worse, because the whole world may be very glad to know that US will stay home. The whole world will be in peace.
@seabig2353
4周前
直接证明：美元的汇率不是由市场决定的！而是由美国政府决定的！以后美国人也别指责其他国家操纵汇率了！
@kib3571
3周前
得道者多助.... 失道者寡助。
@4-SeasonNature
4周前
Excellent observations
@Elfan97-ec1uk
4周前
Who in their right mind would sanction their largest customer ?
@mtcnew8353
4周前
What does the speaker mean not playing by the rules? For example, is HUAWEI not playing by the rules? If so what rule is HUAWEI not playing by? U.S. uses simply a national security threat to block HUAWEI and in addition, to sanction HUAWEI in every whichever way possible. Can US provide any evidence that HUAWEI is a national security threat? More likely, it’s the tech advances that HUAWEI show that makes US products non competitive. So anytime US is behind is a national security threat that must be blocked. Funny when U.S. was ahead, was there any country that uses this approach against US?
@shawnkuo001
3周前
Very insightful comments
@shengzhizhou4735
3天前
分析的比较理性客观！
@user-mi5lv8kg5u
3周前
老美少有的有識之士
@williamdeng1870
4周前
A smart American.
@secondthoughtsecondthought3187
4周前（修改过）
Trump在任时对中国进口产品加关税，包括Nobel经济学奖得主的无数美国学究都说没有用。是好事还是坏事各人看法不同，但美国从中国进口商品已大幅度下降。中国的国师们在Biden胜选后兴奋的说Biden是被我们搞定的人选。但Biden上台后不但维持着而且还增加了关税，并且又加上了科技产品和技术的制裁。在言论自由的社会中，这些美国学究们可以随便表达他们的看法，但他们说得对否和有无效用就是另外一回事了。中国人听听心里舒服就是了，用不着当真。美国和整个西方世界与中俄在经济上脱钓是大潮流。在上一次冷战时两个阵营几乎没有经济来往，然后在过去几十年中滚在一起你中有我我中有你，结果闹出无数的纠纷。三十年河东三十年河西，新冷战巳经开始，将来还是各过各的日子，不再在一起打滚，省得不停的打架。在社会中，互相看着不顺眼的两个人不会来往。价值观对立的国家们也不可能长时间的滚在一起。
@petertien6
3周前
The real question is: what are your "rules'? The US sets up all kinds of rules and then change them anyqay she wishes and whenever she wants !
@user-wk7qe1bq6z
4周前
A country's development should not be about consumption, but should leverage its strengths and develop its own path by referring to the advantages of other countries.
@user-mh8bc9lr6t
4周前
Welcome to China
@BitKoinETF
3周前
Not playing according to American rules? Spell out your RULES please
@user-qf2yl7we7k
3周前
Why all the best can only be enjoyed by America? Others are not humans ?
@chchan1069
11天前
HK$38.00
Thanks!
@MrVodkapowered
3周前
美国以及西方已经忘了怎么竞争了。
@alextan6551
3周前
China can be a self sufficient coun
@simonjp873
3周前
华盛顿共识的基础是欧美做高端产业和金融服务，其他国家做原料输出地，做世界低端制造业工厂，同时做欧美的市场，赚了钱买美国国债，这样循环，但中国打破了他这个梦想，因为中国人要过上好生活，就不能只生产成衣和鞋袜，他也要生产新能源产品，汽车，大飞机，芯片半导体，软件等产品，他也要购买原材料，他也可以提供金融服务
@songyang80
8天前
有需求就能获取利益， 有获利就有研究的动力， 中国市场那么大 美国限制不住的
@user-vp6vf8wm2s
4周前
Play by rules? Here we go again
Whose rules are you talking about?
What are these rules?
Lay them out
No body in the world know what these rules are, in fact American and the West broke all kinds of rules that were instrumented at the UN, World Trade, World Bank, IMF, you list go on and on.
Human rights, the West and American does not have any leg to stand on in this subject, slavery trade was number one colonial another nation by extermination of the aboriginal or first native citizens, Australia, America, Canada,.
War and invading other countries for the name of democracy and national security threads?
@chiangkamsau9632
3周前
尾帝自傲自視，強盜邏輯，阻礙他國進步，自己不跑也不准人跑，尾帝自己昌議平等人權民主又何在？，霸權尾国第一焦慮作怪。不進則退，自強自信自立，中國加油。
@jzllm
2周前
反市场的行为不可持续，而现在的中国似乎更加深谙此道
@wang-rw6cd
3周前
产品最重要的是市场，没有市场，再好的产品也得不到发展。限制别人不能让美国更强大
@user-ug2ix2zj5o
4周前
支持華為華為世界第一
@user-nc3oy7ki1l
13天前
What does not kill me, makes me stronger.
@user-hq7ut7bj5i
9天前
中美距离很远，但中国的文化和美国文化有非常大的差异，美国的成功不可复制，而中国的崛起也无法遏制。世界只能有一个说了算的老大，中国就算不想争也没用。现在亚洲和一些金融较弱的国家正在不可阻挡的想着中国靠拢，支持美国的口号响亮，但脚下的动作却如此诚实。要想不被别人劫掠，必须有两大国在争斗小日子才舒服。
@yzz2319
11天前
美国的处处设限；才证明中国朝着个方向不放弃是对的；其实也是美国怕中国超越；中国芯片会突破。
@michaelchokhq
3天前
叫医生开忧郁药给美国吧
@herberzh
4周前
The West need to understand that China's political sophistication and intelligence are superior to itself.
In history, China had many political challenges and invasion from external powers. China's history proved that Chinese people have sustained those challenges, remained on the land, and drive other power out of the area. That's why we had the Great Wall. It becomes the symbol for China's strength and unification.
The West, on the other hand, need to prove itself that it's political power is sustainable. It need show to the world that there is ONE political power able to retain its position for 500+ years. So far there is none.
This is because the West failed to understand that the "cultural strength" and only emphasis on its military power. The earth is a globe. To conquer the world with force is like the dog chase it's own tail. This is why the US invaded so many small countries, but none of this political and military campaign are successful, or bring any real benefits to US people.
That's why China's political intelligence is far more superior to the West. Because we have the proven historical experience.
@tongleongsim9202
3周前
治不了,官商深度的捆绑在一起,这是国情所致,自由民主,可以天天辯論,但有各种阻礙难成事.没错,中国是个强大的竞争对手.
@user-fc2gr9mx1s
4周前
真正的學者。
@PaPa-cn1rz
4周前
因為無理取鬧，任性非為。
@user-gf1zd7hm1e
3周前
最大制裁是提供便宜又好的产品给对手
@user-dp4oj1hy2y
3周前
Electoral politics has its advantages, but if too much experience and money are spent, it will defeat the purpose. Remember: Elections themselves are not great. Elections are for selecting talents. Only when outstanding talents govern the country can the country develop and progress.
America's elections are now going astray, all about party and individual losses. There is no accountability mechanism for those in power who do something bad, and they can even use various unethical means to continue to win elections.
@user-gx6mo7lk4f
3周前
透過國內物價上漲，完成美元貶值的過程，傳導至美國以外的地方，到美國的商品也都要上漲，
美國賣商品已經上漲造成。
@user-fo2uh4rm5c
4周前
Unless sanctions
meet powerful
retaliations from
all directions.
It is a stupid gambling in politics.
@yinshantang
3周前（修改过）
问题是美国执政者并非为国家而只为选票。做对的事并不能保证取悦选民
@kellee5113
3周前
Why can’t we coexist and complement each other?
@user-yv2cw4oz2n
2周前
自願砸大錢參加軍備競賽、科技競賽、太空競賽、核武競賽、外交競賽，獨自砸大錢來對抗全球一起砸錢，是蘇聯共產的北極圈優良風俗；晶片只是「科技競賽」裡的一小部份，這種競賽非常有趣，打個比方，中華蘇維埃好不容易湊出270億美元，成立「芯片發展基金」，大部份用來補貼成熟製程，少部分用來補貼高階製程，反觀台積電平均毛利率超過50%，從龐大獲利中抽一小部份出來，300億美元作為明年的資本支出，用來發展地球上還沒出現的新科技，再加上美日歐尖端高科技企業與台積電合作，各自以最尖端的科技基礎，與台積電共同研發下一個世代的科技，中華蘇維埃獨自砸大錢，對抗全球合作一起砸小錢，而每一筆小錢都比中華蘇維埃的270億美元還多，誰會跟蘇聯一樣自己斷氣，只要有點智商都知道。
@abangjohn653
2周前
the difference was China leads their capitalist while the US is capitalist leads the government.
@dongdongli447
8天前
说实话这两年美国的做法 反而让我觉得他们的体制真的是有很多方面都非常不错的， 打不过就立法强卖，这说明政府的执行力和为了结果可以不择手段， 一国最高负责人我觉得都自己下不了床了，各个领域的运转也没看到有什么大问题 说明他体制的韧性和合理性， 我真的不是在讽刺 确实觉得我们一定要更深入的了解和学习他们的一些对我们自身发展有益的地方。
