https://www.usglc.org/chinas-growing-influence-is-america-getting-left-behind/
2021 年 4 月
近年来，中华人民共和国的全球投资急剧增长，超过美国成为拉丁美洲和非洲许多国家的最大贸易伙伴，并挑战美国在全球的战略影响力。从对基础设施、航空航天和电力等关键行业的官方投资，到中国国有企业对 5G 等新技术的投资，中国已承诺到 2025 年通过全球制造业成为世界经济领袖。根据其“中国标准 2035”计划，中国旨在为从电信到人工智能的下一代技术制定全球标准，此举可能对全球科技行业产生巨大影响。
COVID-19 危机凸显了中国为提高其全球影响力所做的努力，从疫情爆发时的双边人道主义响应到疫苗外交。中国向 150 多个国家派出了医疗队并捐赠了医疗设备，并在美国之前加入了 COVAX，这是一项确保公平分配疫苗的全球倡议。据估计，中国经济已经从疫情引发的低迷中恢复过来，2020 年第三季度增长了 4.9%，使其成为 2020 年可能出现整体正增长的少数几个经济体之一。
中国在外交和发展方面的投资不断增加
中国国家主席习近平在中共十九大上发表了他对中国全球领导力的愿景，他说：“中国特色大国外交旨在推动新型国际关系，构建人类命运共同体。”2019 年，中国在外交网络规模上超过了美国，拥有 276 个外交机构，包括大使馆、领事馆和常驻国际组织代表团。 2018 年，中国将对外援助预算增加了 7%。
一带一路。中国预计将在其“一带一路”计划上投入超过 1 万亿美元，相当于马歇尔计划实际规模的七倍。该倡议旨在为中国商品建立新市场，并加强中国与全球 130 个国家的经济联系，覆盖了世界 60% 以上的人口和全球 GDP 的三分之一，其中包括 54 个非洲国家中的 40 个。
2020 年上半年，由于疫情限制，中国对“一带一路”计划的投资下降了约 50%。许多国家宣布推迟、取消或审查中国资助的项目，包括埃及、孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和坦桑尼亚，原因是疫情相关的内部经济问题，以及尼日利亚或缅甸，它们自身的疫情经济挑战可能会限制它们以后偿还“一带一路”相关债务的能力。
中国发展机构。 2018 年，中国成立了部级发展机构——中国国际发展合作署，通过对外援助更好地协调和推进其在世界各地的商业和外交政策利益。中国还于 2014 年成立了亚洲基础设施投资银行，该银行目前已有 103 个成员国，其中包括许多美国的战略盟友。
中国不参加国际协调机构，以确保有效援助，如经合组织发展援助??委员会。当今许多最紧迫的人道主义危机几乎没有得到中国政府的财政支持，中国政府往往专注于每年应对一两场灾难。
发展融资。许多人警告说，中国的发展融资方式通过让借款国背负巨额债务并将其用作杠杆，造成了战略依赖，这种策略被称为债务陷阱外交，然而，中国的贷款方式随着时间和经验的积累而不断发展。受援国正在扩大谈判能力和采购能力，中国银行愿意调整现有贷款条款，多边机构和大国正在谈判中发挥作用。
尽管中国领导人习近平表示，中国的投资旨在“顺应经济全球化的历史潮流”，但许多国家——包括吉布提、厄瓜多尔、吉尔吉斯斯坦、蒙古和黑山——因欠中国巨额债务而面临巨大风险。这些担忧导致巴基斯坦、马来西亚、缅甸、孟加拉国和坦桑尼亚等国缩减了对该倡议的承诺。
气候变化。中国是《巴黎气候协定》的签署国，也是世界上最大的温室气体排放国（几乎相当于美国、欧洲和印度的总和）。习近平主席表示，中国将“力争实现碳中和”。
“二氧化碳排放2030年前达到峰值，2060年前实现碳中和”，而据中国生态环境部的数据，中国将在2015年至2020年间降低“碳强度”18.8%。与此同时，在过去三年里，中国还批准国内新增250千兆瓦火电装机容量，并为全球四分之一的其他国家新建火电项目提供资金支持。
中国在世界范围内日益增长的经济影响力
2021 年 3 月，中国共产党批准了中国的“十四五”规划，这是一项经济路线图，目标是通过扩大国家在经济中的作用、双循环和安全的供应链，到 2035 年将该国的人均产出水平提高到“中等发达国家”的水平——几乎是 2020 年水平的三倍——例如西班牙或韩国。
贸易协定：中国签署了两项新的贸易协定，一项是与 15 个亚太国家签署的，另一项是与欧盟签署的，这表明中国致力于制定全球贸易标准，并进一步巩固了北京作为世界主导经济强国的形象。
区域全面经济伙伴关系是一个由 15 个国家组成的亚太地区贸易集团，首次将中国、日本和韩国联合起来达成贸易协议，并包括 10 个东南亚国家以及澳大利亚和新西兰——总人口为 22 亿，几乎占世界人口的 1/3。
全面投资协议将中国和欧盟的市场开放程度限制在目前的水平，以防止潜在的倒退，并有可能增强欧盟在中国的市场准入，涉及医疗服务、化学品、电动汽车和电信等领域。
技术：“中国标准 2035”为中国政府和领先的科技公司开辟了一条道路，以增加中国标准的数量，这些标准将成为 5G 互联网、制造业的“物联网”应用和人工智能等新兴技术的国际标准。中国的目标是在全球范围内推进其数字基础设施和国内规则，这引发了人们对其部署和利用技术方式的担忧。
华为是全球最大的电信设备制造商，年收入达 1085 亿美元，目前已被 13 个国家禁用，19 个国家正在考虑禁用华为或选择竞争对手，原因是华为受到中国政府的过度支持、与中国人民解放军的联系以及网络安全问题。
习近平主席宣布，到 2035 年，国有企业的汽车电池等新能源技术将使中国一半的汽车实现电动或燃料电池驱动，一半实现混合动力。
拉丁美洲：自 2005 年以来，中国已在该地区投资 1500 亿美元，超过世界银行、美洲开发银行和拉丁美洲开发银行贷款总额，其中 90% 流向了委内瑞拉、巴西、厄瓜多尔和阿根廷四个国家。
中国利用其影响力孤立美国的战略盟友台湾，迫使巴拿马、多米尼加共和国和萨尔瓦多切断与台湾的关系。
非洲：过去 15 年，中国对非洲的投资增长了 520% 以上，2009 年超过美国成为非洲最大的贸易伙伴，并成为撒哈拉以南非洲 48 个国家中 19 个国家的最大出口国。据麦肯锡称，目前在非洲有 10,000 多家中国企业，到 2025 年有望创造 4400 亿美元的收入。
中国进出口银行在 21 世纪向非洲提供了近 670 亿美元的贷款，占世界银行 125 亿美元贷款总额的 500% 以上，并计划到 2025 年向非洲大陆提供超过 1 万亿美元的贷款。
亚洲：2000 年至 2017 年，中国在东亚和太平洋地区的外交和发展上投入了超过 480 亿美元，奖励那些支持其外交政策立场并购买其产品的国家。
中国超过 95% 的投资（总计 1200 亿美元）都集中在该地区的基础设施建设上。
他们说：中国日益增长的全球影响力
美国国会
参议院外交关系委员会主席 Bob Mendez (D-NJ)：“此刻需要做出强有力的战略回应，以重建美国的领导地位，并投资于我们在未来一代人中超越中国的能力。”
参议院外交关系委员会高级成员 James Risch (R-ID)：“随着我们进入 21 世纪，中国将在各个方面成为我们的主要竞争对手。显然在经济、军事、文化和其他所有方面。”
众议院外交事务委员会主席 Gregory W. Meeks (D-NY)：“中国利用来自香港、台湾、日本、韩国和新加坡的大量高质量工业投资成为世界制造业中心。这些是不可逆转的结构性变化；相反，它们可能会加速。尽管美国需要制定切实可行的政策来防止金融操纵并在其发展过程中维护美国的权利，我们对这两个大国的回应必须从根本上建立在承认其成就的意愿和与之相匹配的决心上。”
众议院外交事务委员会资深成员迈克·麦考尔（R-TX）：“随着中国‘一带一路’倡议的出现及其强制性贷款做法，我们必须让我们的企业更容易进入国外市场……我们的外交人员在这些国家实地工作，对他们的政治和经济复杂性有着独到的见解。我们必须更多地利用这些信息帮助私营部门在国外开展业务，并支持美国维护全球稳定的外交政策。”
拜登政府
总统约瑟夫·拜登：“美国领导层必须应对这一新的威权主义推进时刻，包括中国与美国竞争的野心日益增长。我们将直面中国的经济滥用行为；反击其咄咄逼人的胁迫行动；反击中国对人权、知识产权和全球治理的攻击。”
美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯：“我们撤退的地方，中国就会填补，然后他们就会制定这些机构的规则和规范；当中国挑战我们的价值观时，我们会挺身而出，包括在新疆对维吾尔族的挑战或香港的民主；确保我们的军队能够阻止中国的侵略；投资于我们自己的人民，使他们能够充分参与竞争。”
财政部长珍妮特·耶伦：“拜登政府将采取全政府的方式对付中国，利用我们现有的工具，以实现我们的经济、国家安全和外交政策目标。展望未来，我们应该努力应对这一重要挑战，建立美国盟友和伙伴的统一战线，包括通过多边机构，以对抗中国的侵权行为。”
国家安全领导人
美国印度太平洋司令部司令、海军上将菲利普·戴维森：“我们必须迅速在外交和信息领域以及经济领域采取行动，因为中国正在通过腐败、通过您之前提到的机制，非常有害地散布美元，我们必须愿意在这些其他领域开展工作。”
其他资源
美国大联盟与参议员米特·罗姆尼 (R-UT) 举行了一场虚拟活动，讨论了美国外交和发展计划对于应对与中国共产党等威权政府的竞争的重要性：据罗姆尼参议员说，“我们长期战胜中国的方式是让世界人民了解那里正在发生的事情，并鼓励他们呼吁自由和民主——这就是为什么美国在世界舞台上的作用至关重要。我们需要制定一项战略，利用我们的影响力工具（包括外交和发展）来加强我们的联盟和伙伴关系，并劝阻中国不要走上成为国际社会负责任成员的道路。”
USGLC 的报告分析了来自不同政治派别的 120 多个智库的分析报告，发现大家普遍同意打击日益兴起的威权主义的重要性，但也反映了应对挑战的不同方法。请在此处阅读完整分析，该分析发现来自不同政治派别的报告在多个领域达成了广泛共识，包括加强打击选举干预和虚假信息的工具、与盟友就中国和俄罗斯进行协调、加强数字技术标准以及提高人权。
China's Growing Global Influence: What's at Stake?
https://www.usglc.org/chinas-growing-influence-is-america-getting-left-behind/
April 2021
The People’s Republic of China’s global investments have grown dramatically in recent years, surpassing the United States as the largest trading partner with many countries in Latin America and Africa and challenging America’s strategic influence across the globe. From official investments in key industries like infrastructure, aerospace, and power to investments by Chinese state-owned companies in new technologies like 5G, China has pledged to become a world economic leader by 2025 through global manufacturing. Under its “China Standards 2035” plan, China aims to set the global standards for the next generation of technologies, from telecommunications to artificial intelligence, a move that may have enormous implications for tech industries worldwide.
The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted China’s efforts to increase its global influence, from bilateral humanitarian response at the outbreak to vaccine diplomacy. China sent medical teams and donating medical equipment to over 150 countries and joined COVAX, the global initiative to ensure an equitable distribution of a vaccine, before the United States. Estimates indicate that China’s economy has already recovered from the downturn driven by the pandemic, growing by 4.9% in the third quarter of 2020, marking it as one of the few economies likely to show an overall positive rate of growth for 2020.
GROWING CHINESE INVESTMENTS IN DIPLOMACY AND DEVELOPMENT
Chinese President Xi Jinping released his vision for China’s global leadership at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, saying, “major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics aims to foster a new type of international relations and build a community with a shared future for mankind.” In 2019, China surpassed the United States in the size of its diplomatic network, citing 276 diplomatic posts—including embassies, consulates, and permanent missions to international organizations. In 2018, China increased its budget for foreign aid by 7%.- Belt and Road. China is expected to spend over $1 trillion on its “Belt and Road Initiative” – seven times the size of the Marshall Plan in real dollars. This initiative seeks to build new markets for Chinese goods and increase China’s economic connectivity in 130 countries around the world, encompassing more than 60% of the world’s population and one-third of global GDP – including 40 out of 54 African countries.
- In the first half of 2020, China’s investments in the Belt and Road Initiative dropped by about 50% due to pandemic restrictions. Many countries announced they were postponing, cancelling, or reviewing Chinese-funded projects, including Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Tanzania due to pandemic related internal economic concerns, as well as Nigeria or Myanmar whose own pandemic economic challenges may constrain their ability to service Belt and Road related debt later.
- Chinese Development Institutions. In 2018, China launched a ministry-level development agency – the China International Development Cooperation Agency – to better coordinate and advance its commercial and foreign policy interests around the world through foreign aid. China also launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2014 which already has 103 member states, including many of America’s strategic allies.
- China does not participate in international coordinating agencies to ensure effective assistance like the OECD Development Assistance Committee. Many of today’s most pressing humanitarian crises receive little financial contribution from the Chinese government which has tended to focus on responding to one or two disasters annually.
- Development Financing. Many have warned that China’s approach to development financing creates strategic dependencies by burdening a borrowing nation with enormous debt and using it as leverage, a tactic known known as debt-trap diplomacy, however, China’s approach to lending has evolved with time and experience. Recipient countries are expanding their negotiating power and procurement capacity, Chinese banks are willing to restructure the terms of existing loans, and multilateral institutions and great powers are playing a role in negotiations.
- While Chinese leader Xi Jinping says Chinese investments are meant to “embrace the historic trend of economic globalization,” many have left countries – including Djibouti, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Montenegro – at significant risk with large debts owed to China. These concerns have led countries such as Pakistan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Tanzania to scale back their commitments to the initiative.
- Climate Change. China, a signatory of the Paris Climate Agreement, is also the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases (almost equal to the United States, Europe and India combined). President Xi Jinping said China will “aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,” and, according to the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment, China reduced its “carbon intensity” by 18.8% between 2015 and 2020. At the same time, in the last three years, China has also allowed an extra 250 gigawatts of domestic coal-fired power plants and funds 1/4 of the world’s new coal-fired power plants in other countries.
CHINA’S GROWING ECONOMIC INFLUENCE AROUND THE WORLD
The Communist Party of China approved China’s 14th Five-Year Plan in March 2021, an economic roadmap with a goal of raising the country’s per capita output levels up to that of “moderately developed countries”—nearly three times the 2020 level—by 2035 such as Spain or South Korea, through an expansion of the state’s role in the economy, dual circulation, and secure supply chains.- Trade Deals: China’s entry into two new trade deals, one with 15 Asia-Pacific countries and one with the European Union, signals its commitment to set global standards for trade and furthers Beijing’s image as the dominate economic power in the world.
- Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a 15-country trading block in the Asia-Pacific region, unites China, Japan and South Korea in a trade deal for the first time and includes 10 Southeast Asian countries plus Australia and New Zealand – a population of 2.2 billion people, almost 1/3 of the world’s population.
- Comprehensive Agreement on Investment binds China and the European Union to their current levels of market openness for investments and prevents potential rollbacks, with the possibility enhanced EU market access in China, in sectors such as health services, chemicals, electric vehicles, and telecoms.
- Technology: “China Standards 2035” creates a path for China’s government and leading technology companies to increase the number of Chinese standards that become international standards for emerging technologies like 5G internet, the “Internet of Things” applications for manufacturing, and artificial intelligence. China aims to advance its digital infrastructure and domestic rules globally, which has raised concerns about the ways in which it deploys and exploits technology.
- Huawei, the largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer in the world with an annual revenue of US$108.5 billion, has been banned in 13 countries, with 19 countries weighing a ban or chosen competitors due to undue Chinese state support, links to the People’s Liberation Army, and cybersecurity concerns..
- President Xi announced that new energy technologies, such as car batteries from state-owned enterprises, will enable half of the vehicles in China to be electric or fuel-cell powered, and half hybrid by 2035.
- Latin America: China has invested $150 billion in the region since 2005, more than the combined lending from
the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and the CAF-Development Bank of Latin America, of which 90% has been directed to four countries: Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, and Argentina.
- China has leveraged its influence to isolate Taiwan, America’s strategic ally, pressing Panama, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador to cut ties with Taiwan.
- Africa: China has increased its investments in Africa by more than 520% over the last 15 years, surpassing the U.S. as the largest trading partner to Africa in 2009 and becoming the top exporter to 19 out of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. According to McKinsey, there are now over 10,000 Chinese firms in Africa with the potential to generate $440 billion in revenues by 2025.
- China’s Export-Import bank loaned nearly $67 billion to Africa in the 2000s, more than 500% of the combined World Bank loans of $12.5 billion and aims to loan more than $1 trillion on the continent by 2025.
- Asia: China spent more than $48 billion on diplomacy and development across East Asia and the Pacific between 2000 and 2017, rewarding countries that support its foreign policy positions and buy its products.
- More than 95% of China’s investments – totaling $120 billion – have focused on infrastructure development in the region.
WHAT THEY ARE SAYING: CHINA’S GROWING GLOBAL INFLUENCE
U.S. Congress
- Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman, Bob Mendez (D-NJ): “This moment demands a strong, strategic response that can begin to rebuild American leadership and invest in our ability to out-compete China in the generation ahead.”
- Senate Foreign Relations Ranking Member, James Risch (R-ID): “As we proceed through the 21st century, China is going to be a major competitor of ours in every way that there is. Obviously economically and militarily, culturally and every other way.”
- House Committee on Foreign Affairs Chairman, Gregory W. Meeks (D-NY): “China has used floods of high-quality industrial investment from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea and Singapore to become a center of world manufacturing. These are structural changes that will not be reversed; rather, they are likely to accelerate. And while the US needs tough policies to prevent financial manipulation and enforce American rights as they proceed, our response to the two giants must rest fundamentally on a willingness to recognize their accomplishment and a determination to match it.”
- House Committee on Foreign Affairs Ranking Member, Mike McCaul (R-TX): “With the emergence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and their coercive lending practices, we must make it easier for our businesses to have access to foreign markets…Our diplomatic personnel on the ground in these countries and have unique insights on their political and economic complexities. We must do more to use this information to help the private-sector do business abroad and support U.S. foreign policy in upholding global stability.”
The Biden Administration
- President, Joseph Biden: “American leadership must meet this new moment of advancing authoritarianism, including the growing ambitions of China to rival the United States. We’ll confront China’s economic abuses; counter its aggressive, coercive action; to push back on China’s attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance.”
- Secretary of State, Antony Blinken: “Where we pull back, China fills in and then they’re the ones writing the rules and setting the norms of these institutions; standing up for our values when China is challenging them, including in Xinjiang against the Uyghurs or democracy in Hong Kong; making sure that our military is postured so that it can deter Chinese aggression; and investing in our own people so that they can fully compete.”
- Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen: “The Biden administration will engage in a whole-of-government approach to China that uses our available tools in a manner that is designed to achieve our economic, national security, and foreign policy goals. Going forward, we should strive to meet this important challenge by building a united front of U.S. allies and partners, including through multilateral institutions, to confront China’s abusive behaviors.”
National Security Leaders
- Admiral Philip Davidson, Commander, United States Indo-Pacific Command: “We have to move out in the diplomatic and the information space, as well as the economic space, quite briskly because China is spreading dollars around very perniciously through corruption, through the mechanisms that you talked about earlier, and we’ve got to be willing to work in these other realms.”
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
- The USGLC held a virtual event with Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) on the importance of America’s diplomacy and development programs to addressing competition with authoritarian governments like the China Communist Party: According to Senator Romney, “The way we win long-term against China is to have people of the world understand what’s happening there and encourage them to clamor for freedom and democracy—which is why America’s role on the world stage is critical. We need to put a strategy in place that uses our tools of influence—including diplomacy and development—to strengthen our alliances and partnerships and dissuade China from the course they are on to become a responsible member of the international community.”
- WATCH the discussion and learn more here.
- The USGLC’s Report on Reports analysis of more than 120 think tank analyses across the political spectrum found broad agreement on the importance of combating rising authoritarianism but reflected different approaches to the challenge. READ the full analysis here, which found several areas of widespread consensus in reports across the political spectrum including strengthening the tools to combat election interference and disinformation, coordinating with allies on China and Russia, bolstering digital technology standards, and elevating human rights.
