Tiemei’s Uncle
Tiemei in Red Lantern: “ I have so many uncles, and but they never come to my house unless they have a business”.
If a trader today, Tiemei got to figure out everyday who and how many of family’s uncles are coming, and for what businesses.
An uncle is a trend. As a trader, he needs to work for trend day trading or swing trading, that way he makes his money and overshoots the trend for market. It’s definitely not an easy job, and I have asked, with my respect, some of the very experienced and successful traders in DQ to post more for us to learn.
So, who is going to be our uncle to take us out of the current correction?
TA sees somewhere near 11670 as the next support line for Dow, being or not being the bottom of current correction. IBD says it takes on average 3M for a successful rally to take root in market bottoms. In a sense, TA is bookkeeping of historical records, and a history-based guess for the future, as good or bad as it is.
The current correction has long been in bears’ plan and they have done a great job so far. Now, with newly made money in their pockets, what are they going to play next? It seems that gold, oil, and commodities are not getting their attention ( I am not sure about currencies as an asset class), and Treasuries have recently been bid up so expensively by those early birds. Bears got to pay big money to get into “safe heaven”, and I am still not sure if they want to do that. They are smart and they know they may end up as “last in first out” in treasuries if jumping now.
So stocks are still in bears mind, I guess. Just like market tops out when bulls start eating bulls, market probably will bottom out this time as well, when bears start eating bears. When bears start buying, it may be the time for a reversal. In that sense, bear may be the uncle leading us out of the correction.
By the way, as a long-term investor, I sill think this is a correction, not a start of bear market. As a trader, every trend is my uncle.
marketreflections.com for further info.
