多劳多失

这是熊市的不二法则。 当然，很多高手不同意。所以，他们是高手，我是低手。在此声明，我没有贬低高手们的含意，不要误会。

As much as I want to keep all the ultrashorts ETF to hedge my long term holdings, now it's time for me to unload most of them gradually. Reason is very simple, as the market goes lower, the government might intervene even more by banning all short sellings, or who knows, banning future trading. It's a crazy thought, but looking at all the crazy intervention so far, those thoughts do not sound so crazy after all. Back in 1987 crash, the Reagon government pretty much standed on the sideline and let the market work its way out. Of course, in 1987, the crisis wasn't this huge either.

Banning short selling in certain stocks has a tremendous damage to the market mechanism and it would be foolish to think that, it will prevent the market from free falling. In contrast, it might cause the market to fall harder. Think of it, in such multi dimensional financial world, it's very rare for investors to beg on one product on a one way direction. Mutual funds, hedge funds and even individual investors now are all doing some short of hedging. Banning short selling takes away one of the major hedging tools that would allow the investors to hedge and profit from the market downfall to compensate their losses on the long side. Now, when they need cash, they have no choice but to sell their assets, and in most cases, good assets and good stocks since the junk assets do not worth much anymore. This in turn, would drive the market much lower. In other words, the relatively safe good stocks are no longer safe anymore and that really breaks the nerves of a lot of value investors and they might kick into a panic mode and sell their holdings. And that's when the damages really comes. Also, that's when the great opportunities arise for cash rich investors who have been patiently waiting on the sideline. "危机，危机，没危没机", that's what it really means.

The current problem is, a lot of the public and media lock their eyes on this financial crisis without realizing that, the major gauge for a bear market is the economy and the recession. As common wisdom has it, the bear market normally ends 6 months ahead of the economic recovery from a recession. Unfortunately, we are not officially in a recession right now at this point, which can be translated into a bad news for the market. Without moving into a recession, we can't decide how bad the recession will be and how long it will last. Without a measurement at the ending of the recession, we can't estimate and gauge when the bear market will end.

As we keep one eye on the development of this financial crisis, we should switch more attention to the economic front, domestically and globally. After all, the life of a bear market will be determined by the economic situation, not by trading mechanism.

In a dangerous bear market like this, a wise investor should be a 钓鱼者，not a 游泳冠军.