Why some of us are bears.

I have recently thought about it: why a few of us are bearish while all others are bulls?

Looking back, I reflected that bears are those well educated. Most of us spend significant time to understand the history and financial system along with monetary policies.

One amazing recollection, the bears are those "haves" instead of "have nots". Bears are consistantly exam the strategies. Instead of speculating for quick return, bears are more concerned with preserving what they have. The fundamental differences are bears have time and resources on their side. They wait for the bottom (or top) of the trend. And they only invest on the trends.

Bears believe long term trend. Long term trend usually take 20, 30 or a century to play out. It is understandble that such a long cycle will often out last the life of average investors. That is why invest in a trend is some times painful, they will have to endure the noises - the ups and downs of short term trend.

We are in a secular bear market.Meanwhile, we are in a very short term bull market. I believe the market may truly bottom out when dow gold cross. According to "Anatomy of Bears", a stock overvaluation to undervalueation typically last 14 years. This puts us to 2014 time frame to bottom out the DOW. It is very likely we will endure a turbulent time from now to reach the bottom.

I believe the USD is on the verge of collapse in value. Baby boomers will find out that social securities are not able to guarantee any thing. They may have to work until their unable to.

Social chaos, war between brothers, a.k.a. civil war, is a distant possibility.

Stay safe.