关于周三FOMC Minutes与美股大盘中期的简单分析

首先看2009四季度预期:

2009四季度GDP预期范围从（-1.3, -0.5）调整到（-2.0, -1.3）
2009四季度Unemployment预期范围从（8.5%, 8.8%）调整到（9.2%, 9.6%）
2009四季度Headline PCE inflation预期从 (0.3%, 1.0%)调整到（0.6%, 0.9%）
The core inflation projection for 2009预期从(0.9%, 1.1%)调整到（1.0%, 1.5%）

FOMC 的注解：

1. FOMC注意到第二季度经济下滑的势头有所放缓.
注：第一季度GDP糟糕有很多部分是由于库存下降，都降到零了还能咋降？实质上第一季度已经开始放缓，但放缓并不意味着一定要开始增长。

2. FOMC期待下半年生产和销售开始恢复，原因是financial系统好转。
注：这基本是废话，financial系统好转不能决定生产和销售是不是恢复

3. FOMC注意到最近几个月居民财务状况有所改善，这可能意味着居民消费应该稳定下来，房价因此大概也许可能接近底部。
注： 5似乎不支持对居民消费和房价稳定的预期。

4. FOMC观察到第一季度企业大幅削减库存，但是今年晚些时候销售状况开始稳定会促使企业增加库存。
注：不必然，取决于2，生产和销售是不是真的开始恢复。

5. FOMC注意到劳务市场继续恶化，信用依旧紧缩，房价还在跌，Fed估计居民的消费和投资因此会继续削减。
注： 这个是坏消息。

6. FOMC预计企业非常低的生产能力利用率，缓慢的销售增长，增加的借贷成本会压制企业的固定投资规模。
注：这个也是坏消息。


原话：
"However, participants also saw recent indications that the economic downturn was slowing in the second quarter, and they continued to expect that sales and production would begin to recover-albeit gradually-during the second half of the year, reflecting the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus and of measures to support credit markets and stabilize the financial system along with market forces. In particular, participants noted some improvement in financial conditions in recent months, signs that consumer spending was leveling out, and tentative indications that activity in the housing sector might be nearing its bottom. In addition, they observed that the large reduction in stocks of unsold goods that resulted from firms' aggressive inventory cutting during the first quarter would make firms more likely to increase production as their sales stabilize and then begin to turn up later this year. Participants expected, however, that recoveries in consumer spending and residential investment initially would be damped by further deterioration in labor markets, still-tight credit conditions, and a continuing, if less pronounced, decline in house prices. Moreover, they anticipated that very low capacity utilization, sluggish growth in sales, and the high cost and limited availability of financing would contribute to further weakness in business fixed investment this year."

Fed之前的预期是2010年上半年的某个时候经济开始复苏，为此Fed已经做好了准备工作。但此次FOMC 却认为复苏可能会很慢，原因是依旧紧的信用条件，高失业率和房价依旧在下降。

"Participants generally expected that strains in credit markets and in the banking system would ebb slowly, and hence that the pace of recovery would continue to be damped in 2010. But they anticipated that the upturn would strengthen in 2011 to a pace exceeding the growth rate of potential GDP as financial conditions continue to improve, and that it would remain above that rate long enough to eliminate slack in resource utilization over time."

俺觉着这个更符合现实。

总的感觉是，大鳄们对经济开始真正复苏的期待从2010年初后推到2011，尽管他们依旧存有一线指望，并仔细选择措辞以免刺激大众对经济明年复苏的信心。

关于美股大盘，时间上来讲，本波中期行情从五月初已经开始进入顶部震荡周期。spx震荡空间目前875 - 950。5月4日spx的收盘，很有可能是周收盘价的顶部，所以无论何时spx升上920+，中短期内卖空比买多相对更安全。

震荡可能持续几周，结束后大盘下行的概率很大。

李察天 5/21