偶们经常听说的市场的节日行情,即如果遇到长周末,会出现只涨不跌的逼空行情,,刚刚发生的生蛋RALLY,,
再如,,每年一月的行情将代表全年的行情,,一月涨即全年涨,,等等,,那么,,这些传说你可以认为无厘头,但是,其中的策略有明显的EDGE,这些EDGE甚至远远高于偶们平时用的TA,FA,,
即将推出国语长篇之SEASONAL
SEASONAL 1
说到SEASONAL,,第一反应就是,,天燃气,,天气冷用的多,,价格高,,要涨,,有木有??
你说说,,今年夏天是多少多少,,现在都冬天了,,价钱还更低,,情何以堪呀,,不WORK嘛,,
那偶们把这个问题留到最后来解释,,
先来个机械唯物主义,,
每年生蛋节前第X天,,X小于10,,你无脑的买进大盘指数,,节后第一个交易日无脑卖出,,一年就玩这几天,,
书上都说了,,会赚,,20几年下来,,你脚着你有多少次会赚??,,注意,,这可是书上已经摆的明牌,,所谓见光S,,
答案
1, 50 - 60%,,很多同学最喜欢这个数,,每次都玩扔硬币,,
2, 60 - 80%
3, 80 - 90%
4,没有100%,,OK??!!
SEASONAL 2
不错,,结果前几天就说了,,89%,,只有3年会亏钱,,,分别是,,1997(-1.1%),,2002(-0.5%),,2008(-2%),,
其它24年都是赚的,,而且,,PF = 18,,换句话说,,如果你赚的是亏掉的 18倍,,惊未??
这还只是完全没有FILTER,,没有LEVERAGE的情况,,
这就是SANTA RALLY,,
SEASONAL 3
能比89%更好一些末??YES,,WE CAN DO IT!!
把2008,2002拿掉,,熊市嘛,,RIGHT??唯一问题是你在当年显然不知道你在熊市,,RIGHT??
于是TA可以HELP,,这次偶用的是ATR,观察波动率的指标,,
说了无数次了,,美股的特征是熊市下跌时波大,,所以,,当ATR明显超过平均值时,,暗示投资人比较恐慌,,当遇到长假时,,不是继续持有,,而是害怕夜长梦多,,于是扔掉了事,,MAKE SENSE?
当偶们加上这个指标后,,胜率会达到95%,,
于是新的问题来了,,只有生蛋RALLY可以玩吗??每年只有一次情何以堪!!
NEW YEAR,MLK,,总统日,,7/4,,LABOR DAY,,THANKSGIVING??这些书上没写的,,还有江湖传说的9/11,,
SEASONAL 4
放心,,偶们都算好了,,偶把PF》 5,胜率》75%的算STABLE,,
最稳定的HOLIDAY是,,
1. SANTA RALLY + NEW YEAR,,因为1/1回过去几天就是生蛋,,这二个连在一起
2. THANKS GIVING + AFTER THANK-GIVING 一周,,,
3. LABOR DAY,
4. 7/4,,
//Stable holiday, combined Profit: 779, PF = 14.9, 89%, 1/1/1990 -- 09/15/2014
_allHolidays.AddRange(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 1 && o.Day < 5)); //New Year, look back = 9, PF = 9, 88%
_allHolidays.AddRange(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 7)); //Independence Day look back = 9, PF = 13, 82%
_allHolidays.AddRange(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 9)); //Labor Day look back = 9, PF = 4.5, 88%
//Combined Before and After Thanksgiving, PF = 27, 89%
_allHolidays.AddRange(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 11)); //Thanksgiving look back = 9, PF = 11, 76%
_allHolidays.Add(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 11).First().AddDays(LOOK_UP_DAY)); //After Thanksgiving, PF = 5.6, 76%
_allHolidays.AddRange(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 12)); //X-MAS look back = 9, PF = 36, 95%
//Optional
//_allHolidays.AddRange(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 1 && o.Day > 7)); //MLK look back = 9, PF = 3.5, 74%
//_allHolidays.AddRange(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 2)); //President Day look back = 9, PF = 1.5, 52%
//_allHolidays.AddRange(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 3 || o.Month == 4)); //Good Friday look back = 9, PF = 0.8, 47%
//_allHolidays.AddRange(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 5)); //Memorial Day look back = 9, PF = 2.0, 47%
//_allHolidays.Add(new DateTime(i, 9, 11)); //9/11 look back = 9, PF = 4.3, 57%
//Negative
//_allHolidays.Add(holiday.Where(o => o.Month == 12).First().AddDays(-10)); //#2 week after thanksgiving, 19 days before X-MAS, PF = 0.54, 38%