这个模型在去年九十月那轮使用成功，几个短期波动全捉住，把空仓越养越大。如果后面我推算靠谱，这个模型有它再次发威的时候。原贴可以去博客联接，或者搜寻这里的帖子（那个彩图好看些）。模型是我手动总结了十一个回调案例，从统计上看出几天内的一个小小的、但是很确定的分布。这个知识就是金钱。
blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/64640/201410/4262.html
本轮下跌第一日是上上周四，1％下跌起始。到上周四为第六交易日。我的主要空单在上周三卡窝，因为空方要躲开 第六日的上涨倾向。请看如下11个案例分析。第六交易日平均值略涨，11个样本只有一个大跌，一个中跌。相反，有两个大涨，四个中涨。经历前五天的艰难 后，这天好比探戈，回趟一步，给没有清仓的多头一个机会。这点从表格的下部能更好显示。头5天累计跌幅（3.31%)和头6天比没有扩大（3.09%)。 从空头的角度，这好比跑障碍赛，要躲避开这个反弹。首先这天要是涨1％，损失不小。其次，这天反弹会把VIX降下来，空头可以廉价重新建仓。最不明智的做 法就是在第四或第五天杀跌追着建空仓，这样做一旦赶上第六日前后的反弹，空方心情大坏，匆忙止损，一步错，步步错。这天的反弹是否要抢做多呢？那就仁者见 仁了。我认为两个方向都做，很容易把自己搞晕，老空头盼来黎明，不小心成了新多头。
下面看第六天以后。在表格最下方，比较了第五到第九的相对涨跌分布。两个up不一定涨，只是相对良性的日子。两个良性日子的平均是6.82和5.91,两 个恶性分布是第7.45日。这个相差一天的分布意味着从第五到第九交易日，后半程（即第七日以后）盘势转弱。从平均值看，第九交易日是确定第一日后跌幅最 大的一个。
该模型使用的难度在于确定第一日，和识别经典下调。今年四月和八月的不是，这个模型不管用。本次上周四为第六日，出长下影探1926底，周五为第七日，三 大指数1％上涨。这进一步确证这回有很大把握是经典回调，即第九日下周二（或周三，因为大涨出在第七日）附近盘势再次转弱。因此我声称留给反弹的时间不 多，下周或许指望上冲一下填补1973的月线缺口。此后的走势，至少是在1973到1926期间盘整。
这不是大数据。十二少的小数据，有理有据，鄙视瞎喊。没有实料每天上三五十个帖子灌水的，适可而止。
| Day | 5/31/13 | 8/15/13 | 4/4/12 | 5/4/12 | 10/19/12 | 2/22/11 | 5/11/11 | 6/1/11 | 7/27/11 | 1/15/10 | 11/1/07 | avg |
| 1 | -1.45% | -1.42% | -1.00% | -1.64% | -1.70% | -2.06% | -1.05% | -2.30% | -2.09% | -1.12% | -2.40% | -1.66% |
| 2 | 0.55% | -0.33% | -0.05% | 0.07% | 0.01% | -0.61% | 0.48% | -0.11% | -0.29% | 1.24% | 0.11% | 0.10% |
| 3 | -0.49% | -0.64% | -1.16% | -0.40% | -1.41% | -0.07% | -0.78% | -1.01% | -0.69% | -1.04% | -0.76% | -0.77% |
| 4 | -1.41% | 0.49% | -1.70% | -0.59% | -0.28% | 1.05% | -0.64% | -1.07% | -0.43% | -2.01% | 1.37% | -0.47% |
| 5 | 0.89% | -0.62% | 0.80% | 0.21% | 0.29% | 0.63% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -2.61% | -2.26% | -2.83% | -0.51% |
| 6 | 1.26% | 0.90% | 1.30% | -0.31% | -0.06% | -1.69% | 0.88% | -0.42% | 0.57% | 0.50% | -0.52% | 0.22% |
| 7 | 0.00% | 0.34% | -1.21% | -1.12% | 0.00% | 0.21% | 0.24% | 0.77% | -4.93% | -0.41% | -1.40% | -0.68% |
| 8 | -1.06% | -0.38% | -0.06% | -0.58% | 1.05% | 1.70% | -0.81% | -1.41% | -0.16% | 0.48% | -0.98% | -0.20% |
| 9 | -0.82% | -1.62% | 1.46% | -0.39% | -0.89% | -0.76% | -1.17% | 0.08% | -6.65% | -1.18% | 2.97% | -0.82% |
| 10 | 1.50% | 0.35% | -0.34% | -1.52% | 0.20% | -0.79% | -0.08% | 1.27% | -1.08% | -0.28% | -0.08% | |
| 11 | -0.63% | 0.16% | -0.65% | -0.85% | 0.80% | 0.87% | 0.33% | -1.81% | 1.52% | -1.46% | -0.17% | |
| 12 | 0.76% | -0.31% | 0.17% | 1.69% | -2.35% | -0.15% | 0.46% | 0.22% | 1.20% | 0.17% | 0.19% | |
| 13 | 0.80% | 0.44% | -0.85% | 0.17% | -1.22% | -1.87% | 0.38% | 0.30% | -0.52% | -1.41% | -0.38% | |
| 14 | -1.44% | 0.82% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.69% | 1.05% | 0.50% | -3.18% | 0.63% | -0.04% | |
| 15 | -2.53% | 0.12% | 1.34% | 0.20% | 0.08% | -0.62% | -2.30% | 1.35% | 0.20% | -2.06% | -0.42% | |
| 16 | 0.33% | 0.05% | 0.69% | -0.32% | -0.35% | -1.18% | -0.11% | -0.61% | -0.72% | 1.74% | -0.05% | |
| 17 | -1.27% | 0.95% | 0.16% | 1.21% | -1.37% | -1.86% | -1.01% | -0.29% | -2.23% | -0.63% | ||
| -1.48% | 1.30% | -1.07% | -1.16% | |||||||||
| -0.23% | -0.07% | |||||||||||
| -2.58% | -0.42% | |||||||||||
| 0.77% | ||||||||||||
| -1.41% | ||||||||||||
| First 5 days | -1.91% | -2.52% | -3.10% | -2.36% | -3.09% | -1.07% | -2.01% | -4.55% | -6.13% | -5.19% | -4.50% | -3.31% |
| First 6 days | -0.65% | -1.62% | -1.80% | -2.67% | -3.14% | -2.76% | -1.13% | -4.97% | -5.56% | -4.68% | -5.02% | -3.09% |
| up | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 6.82 |
| up | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5.91 |
| down | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 7.45 |
| down | 9 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7.45 |
