当前最大的风险是贸易战以及由此引起的对世界，特别是对中国经济的冲击，从而对船运价产生向下的压力。
本文纯属自娱自乐，不构成任何投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎，买卖文中所提及的股票所产生的盈利或亏损均应由投资者个人自负。Disclosure：我重仓SB和SBLK。
Dry Bulk Market: Things Are Looking Perky
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 16/07/2018
Capesize
A shaky start to the week in Asia where rates on the key West Australia/China run lost almost 90 cents dropping to $8.30. However, ongoing interest from the miners and operators saw levels regain ground with the expectation of over $9.00 on the cards, with some suggesting timecharter business was done, which equated to $9.10. Timecharter rates fluctuated from around $18,000 daily to the low $20,000s daily, but a 2014-built 181,000-tonner agreed a strong $24,000 daily for a West Australian round, with a 2011-built 176,000-tonner achieving $21,000 daily mid-week for similar business. Charterers had been holding off in the expectation of rates easing, but steady levels from Brazil continued to attract ballasters, prompting several to fix at higher numbers. Two August 170,000-tonne 10% cargoes fixed from Saldanha Bay to Qingdao at a sharply higher $16.00. The Brazil/China rate settled most of the week in the low $20.00s but some brokers suggested rates were set to rise and expected Vale to sweep up ships for August. The North Atlantic market, often a case of feast or famine, saw a feast this week as an influx of new business combined with a tight tonnage list prompted significant rates rises, particularly fronthaul, where voyage cargoes fixed from St. Lawrence to the East showed a return of around $40,000 daily. This in turn supported transatlantic rates with ships here fixing in the upper $20,000-$30,000 daily range. A strong paper market lent support to period interest with a well described 179,000-tonner 2016-built open China fixing for six to nine months trading at $24,000 or $24,500.
Panamax
Like the football, last week was a game of two halves. Rates in the Atlantic took off as a combination of a reduced tonnage supply in the North coupled with increased mineral transatlantic trades and several front haul stems from various alternative loading areas to East coast South America fuelled the bull’s optimism. Whilst rates jumped dramatically especially for trips to the East and short Baltic/Murmansk rounds, very quickly doubts began to surface as multiple ships were failed on subjects which then divided opinion on market direction towards the end of the week. Rates concluded around $25,000 were circulated for trips East for Kamsamaxes and $23,000 for grain clean Panamaxes, whilst several Panamaxes fixed at $16,000 for short rounds on the North Continent. East coast South America has been comparatively slow last week with rates remaining flat at around $16,000 plus $600,000 ballast bonus. Meanwhile, the Pacific has been rather dull and uninspiring. Rates came under pressure in the North due to a lack of fresh enquiry, with only Indonesian and Australian mineral demand remaining buoyant, but rates slowly slipped lower throughout the week. Despite this, period interest has been strong and rates continued to defy the spot market with modern Kamsarmaxes fixing at around $14,000 for periods of around seven to nine months delivery in the East.
