前几天刚说“20强年会一个月后会在日本召开，我感觉是（习川）两人能握握手就是件了不起的事“，今天传出中方“面会时机不成熟”的信号。中美贸易战，自然已经不是单纯的顺差的问题，而是产业链的控制，双方所受的影响是不对等，前几天说“也许中国死一千，美国伤八百”，中国受损大于美国，不过除了总统觉得“咱赚大了”之外，美国人觉得不受影响的人难见，大家也只有爱国一把，比不上中国，但也没啥法子。
我总提到的一个主题是，不论中国还美国，政府的所有政策都是国内财富的重新分配，有人高兴有人愁。这几天淳朴（美国总统DonaldTrump，人称特朗普或川普）又说调用150亿美元救济农民，就是把财富从一般老百姓手里挪到农民哪儿，为的是收买农民（选票）。中国新的给半导体行业减税的政策，也是从其他行业和老百姓手里转过来的，也没什么好的办法，只能增加爱国教育（就是大部分人勒紧裤带）。
中国国内目前因华为事件对外企公开敌视，甚至抵制冲击、，是最无能的表现，跟义和团心态有一比，政府纵容，脑残。
不久前我说起文学城惹上了美国智库，美国精英觉得文学城是被中国操纵，文学城老总亲自跑到斯坦福抗议。今天据说本站老受五毛黑客骚扰，以致我在（上了首页）博文改个错字的能力也成了牺牲品。可恶，都可恶。
贸易战对美国的影响，不久前Oxford Analytics估计美国老百姓每年负担大约是1000亿美元（CNBC），这几天（美国）纽约联储发了个自己的研究，也说是1000亿美元（见下，《金融时报》报道）。过过目，这个数字大概就是关税，当然这些钱从老百姓手里到了政府手里，正好给淳朴打蓝挺红，收买自己的兵马。
这仗打得是惨，还是欢？都行。
政策都是国内财富的重新分配，贸易战就成了国内政治。
【附录】
The report led by Mary Amiti, assistant vice-president at the New York Fed, estimates that the Trump administration’s increase in tariffs on $200bn in Chinese goods will cost the typical household more than $800 annually.
“These higher tariffs are likely to create large economic distortions and reduce US tariff revenues,” the report, which was co-authored by Princeton’s Stephen Redding and Columbia University’s David Weinstein, warned.
The researchers came to the estimate by projecting the amount of additional tax created by the tariffs as well as so-called deadweight losses. Deadweight losses come as a result of companies, when faced with higher costs to import goods from a particular country, shift to another producer that is less efficient (for example, moving from China to Vietnam).
Such “losses tend to rise more than proportionally as tariffs rise because importers are induced to shift to ever more expensive sources of supply as the tariffs rise”, the report said.
Overall, tax payments from the new round of tariffs are estimated at $26.9bn per year, or $211 per household. Deadweight losses equate to $79.1bn, or $620 per household, the report says.
The New York Fed’s report highlights the potential economic consequences of the deepening stand-off between the US and China. Asset markets have responded negatively, with American and Chinese bourses both under pressure in recent days.
