传奇投资人德鲁肯米勒：跟美债上限相比这更像一部“恐怖电影”
2023-05-04 10:48
相比于银行业危机和潜在的商业地产债务危机，对冲基金偶像、亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）正将注意力转向房间里真正的大象：过度的政府支出和美国失控的巨额债务。
因为尽管商业房地产危机爆发了，也有结束的一天，但美国32万亿美元的债务（并且每六个月增长1万亿美元）和200万亿美元的表外债务将永远存在，至少在美国违约或出现恶性通胀之前不会消失。
（预计到2053年美国国债占GDP的比重将达到200%）
德鲁肯米勒曾是华尔街大鳄索罗斯（George Soros）的首席策略师，曾协助索罗斯成功狙击英镑。德鲁肯米勒与索罗斯一起创造了对冲基金行业最强劲的连胜纪录之一，然后进入Duquesne Capital Management任职，后来在2010年他将投资者从这家规模120亿美元的对冲基金中撤出，并将其转变为家族办公室来管理自己的财富。
德鲁肯米勒周一在一次演讲中表示：
“过去十年的不计后果的财政（支出）行为看起来就像一部恐怖电影。”
他还表示他不希望看到美国政府违约，同时强调：
“但老实说，所有关注债务上限而非未来财政问题的人，就像坐在圣莫尼卡的海滩上，担心30英尺高的海浪会不会破坏码头，而对10英里外200英尺高的海啸视而不见。”
据外媒报道，德鲁肯米勒的言论与其10年前在访问14所大学校园时的言论类似，当时他曾鼓励学生们关注不断膨胀的联邦赤字，他相信这将使子孙后代破产。
他当时说，不计后果的支出引发的经济风暴可能会使2008年的经济阵痛相形见绌。他在周一表示，如今的形势“看起来比我10年前想象的要糟糕得多”。
德鲁肯米勒还呼应了一个长期存在的担忧，他表示，美国面临的最大问题是失控的福利，如社会保障、医疗保险和医疗补助等，如果今天不削减，未来将不得不狂砍福利。同时他还称，永远不要认为这样做是政治自杀。
这位传奇投资人对拜登政府应对潜在财政缺口的计划，以及缺乏共和党对财政约束感到担忧。他说，根据国会预算办公室的估计，到2040年对老年人（福利）的支出将达到联邦税收收入的100%，其中包括利息支出。
更重要的是，目前31万亿美元的美国债务负担不包括未来的福利支付。如果将未来的福利支出考虑在内，他估计美国的实际债务负担接近200万亿美元，远远超过官方公布的31.4万亿美元的债务上限。
德鲁肯米勒还对美联储的行动提出了质疑。他说，美联储过去几十年的宽松货币政策导致了金融市场、政府和银行的鲁莽行为。他表示：
“不幸的是，由于仍然持有大量政府债务，美联储继续制造一种错误的幻觉，即它可以帮助政府解决财政问题。”
尽管过去一年加息5个百分点是朝着正确方向迈出的一步，“试图纠正美联储历史上最大的错误”，但德鲁肯米勒仍质疑美联储坚持这一举措的决心。他说：
“在问题的最初迹象暴露出来后，美联储上个月在短短四天内就将他们在缩减资产负债表方面取得的小进展大部分付诸东流（指美联储为银行提供大量流动性）。美联储这种不对称的反应，也是美国两党都缺乏严肃的结构性行动的诱因之一。”
德鲁肯米勒发表上述言论之际，国会立法者正在提高美国债务上限的问题上陷入僵局，周一，美国财长耶伦警告称，政府可能最快于6月1日耗尽资金。而在今天凌晨，鲍威尔表示：
“任何人都不应该认为，美联储能够保护经济，使其免受未能按时支付账单的潜在短期和长期影响。”
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller says the debt-ceiling crisis pales in comparison to the 'horror movie' of reckless spending
Filip De Mott May 3, 2023
- The government's overspending will bankrupt future generations, Stanley Druckenmiller said.
- It's an issue that needs more attention than the debt-ceiling crisis, he said in a speech Monday.
- "The fiscal recklessness of the last decade has been like watching a horror movie unfold."
The focus on the looming debt-ceiling crisis is overshadowing a more severe cause for concern: excessive government spending.
That's according to billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has been raising the alarm about US deficits for several years. And while he'd like the US to avoid a default, he said more attention should be given to its overspending habits.
"The fiscal recklessness of the last decade has been like watching a horror movie unfold," he said in a Monday speech at the University of Southern California, according to Bloomberg.
In a separate email to Bloomberg, he compared the debt ceiling and the fiscal spending to "worrying about whether a 30-foot wave will damage the pier when you know there's a 200-foot tsunami just 10 miles out."
Mirroring his views from a Wall Street Journal piece written in 2013, Druckenmiller repeated his warning that the spending strain will be catastrophic for future generations, with the fallout exceeding the damage seen in 2008.
Today's situation "looks much worse than I had imagined 10 years ago," he said on Monday.
To Druckenmiller, spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will have to be cut in the future, if not today. Citing Congressional Budget Office estimates, he said that spending on seniors will account for 100% of tax revenue by 2040.
And after accounting for future entitlement payments, he estimated the actual US debt burden is closer to $200 trillion, far more than the official $31.4 trillion debt limit.
Druckenmiller also laid responsibility on the Federal Reserve, as its easy-money policies encouraged market and spending recklessness for over a decade.
And while he views the central bank's aggressive monetary tightening as a good thing, he has little faith that the Fed is devoted to the approach.
"At the first signs of trouble, the Fed last month, and in just four days, undid most of the small progress they had made in reducing their balance sheet," he said, alluding to massive liquidity in response to bank failures. "This asymmetric Fed response is what feeds the lack of serious structural action in DC from both sides of the aisle."
His comments come as congressional lawmakers are gridlocked over raising the US debt limit, and have until this summer before the nation goes into default.
On Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government could run out of money and trigger an economic crisis as soon as June 1.
