英国央行行长 通胀出现持续迹象 继续加息

 英国央行行长:通胀出现持续迹象
 
华尔街日报 |2023-06-28        
 
英国央行行长Andrew Bailey在参加一场由欧洲央行举办的研讨会上表示,英国正在出现明显的持续迹象,英国的核心通胀更具粘性,英国央行必须采取非常强有力的举措。Bailey还驳斥了经济学家的说法,即英国脱欧加剧了普遍的工人短缺,从而助长了粘性通胀。
 
6月28日周三,英国央行行长Andrew Bailey在参加一场由欧洲央行举办的研讨会上表示,上周英国央行的加息行动是对英国具有韧性的经济以及出人意料的持续通胀的回应。
 
Bailey表示:
 
在我们看来,长期的数据,尤其是劳动力市场数据和我们掌握的通胀数据显示出英国正在出现明显的持续迹象。这些迹象让我们相信,我们必须采取非常强有力的举措。
 
Bailey补充说,他认为一次性加息50个基点的效果会比连续两次加息25个基点的效果更好。
 
Bailey表示,英国的核心通胀更具粘性。 他补充说,英国拥有强劲的劳动力市场,许多公司在招聘困难的情况下囤积劳动力。
 
在提到当前英国央行的缩表行动时,Bailey称,缩表行动进行得“非常顺利”,需要思考怎样才是资产负债表的自然水平。他进一步表示,即使资产负债表达到均衡水平,英国央行也可能继续出售部分资产。
 
Bailey表示,他赞赏英国政府试图利用财政政策来解决结构性问题,包括英国潜在增长率较低的问题。他说:
 
我们在制定政策时,已经把财政政策的影响考虑进去了。
 
Bailey还驳斥了经济学家的说法,即英国脱欧加剧了普遍的工人短缺,从而助长了粘性通胀。Bailey说:
 
我不认为英国脱欧是劳动力市场紧张的原因之一。坦率地说,造成劳动力市场紧张的原因有很多,其中很多和新冠疫情相关。
 
他的此番表态与相关的研究结果相冲突,不少研究表明,英国在脱欧后限制欧盟劳工移民英国,是促使英国劳动力市场紧张的一个重要因素。移民减少、新冠疫情之后的招聘激增等都被学术界视作导致英国劳动力市场收紧、工资上涨并引发人们对“工资-价格螺旋式上升”担忧的主要因素。
 
欧洲改革中心和英国今年早些时候发布的《变革中的欧洲》报告发现,到2022年9月,英国脱欧已导致就业市场短缺33万名工人。官方数据显示,近年来欧盟移民数量急剧放缓,进入英国的蓝领工人越来越少。
 
Bailey此番言论似乎修正了英国央行对脱欧的态度。此前,英国央行对脱欧问题非常悲观,这也引发脱欧派民众的严厉批评。尤其是在2016年公投前夕,英国央行曾表示,英国脱欧带给英国贸易的冲击比市场预期的将会更早、更可怕。
 
此外,Bailey还称,英国央行正在观察将人工智能用于运营功能的前景。
 
Bank of England governor defies critics, says surprise rate hike was 'justified' to tame inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/28/boe-governor-defies-critics-says-surprise-rate-hike-was-justified.html
 
 
 
KEY POINTS
  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Wednesday that the bank was “justified” in its decision to raise interest rates by a surprise 50 basis points last week.
  • The move defied market expectations of a 25 basis point hike and reignited debate among critics who say that the central bank has failed to act quickly and decisively enough to tackle rising costs.
  • “We had to make really quite a strong move at that point. It was justified,” Bailey told CNBC’s Sara Eisen at the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal.
 
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that the bank was "justified" in its decision to raise interest rates by a surprise 50 basis points in June.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that the bank was “justified” in its decision to raise interest rates by a surprise 50 basis points in June.
Bloomberg | Getty Images

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Wednesday that the bank was “justified” in its decision to raise interest rates by a surprise 50 basis points last week.

The move defied market expectations of a 25 basis point hike and reignited debate among critics who say that the central bank has failed to act quickly and decisively enough to tackle rising costs.

Bailey said he accepted the criticism, but insisted that the Monetary Policy Committee remains committed to its task: to return inflation to 2%.

“We had to make really quite a strong move at that point. It was justified,” Bailey told CNBC’s Sara Eisen at the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal.

“I can understand why there are critics of us and central banks,” he added.

“We have a job to do. Our job is to return inflation to target and we will do what is necessary. I understand the concerns that go with that, but I’m afraid I always say that it is a worse outcome if we don’t get inflation back to target.”

Fresh data last week showed annual U.K. consumer price inflation was 8.7% in May, exceeding expectations and adding to pressure on the bank, which has struggled to bring down inflation at the same pace as some international peers.

Critically, core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — was 7.1% year on year in May, up from 6.8% in April and marking its highest rate since March 1992.

Bailey said the bank’s main objective was to lower core inflation, which had proven “much stickier” in part due to the strength of the U.K. labor market. That robustness also saw the bank reverse its earlier prediction that Britain was on course to enter its longest recession on record.

"We're going through this year in a more resilient position than I expected," he said.

The governor would not be pressed on when inflation might return to target, and insisted that the bank’s next rate decision — due in August — would be “evidence driven.”

Bailey was speaking on a panel alongside fellow central bank chiefs from the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he anticipated further interest rate hikes ahead, potentially at an aggressive pace.

Bank of England surprises with 50 basis point rate hike to tackle persistent inflation

KEY POINTS
  • Thursday's 50 basis point hike surprised markets, which had priced in a smaller rise.
  • Policymakers are walking a tightrope as they attempt to tighten monetary policy sufficiently to quell inflationary pressures without triggering a full-scale mortgage crisis and recession.
  • Core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — was 7.1% year on year in May, up from 6.8% in April and the highest rate since March 1992.
 
A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021.
A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021.
 

LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday surprised markets with a 50 basis point hike to interest rates, its 13th consecutive increase as policymakers grapple with persistently high inflation.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the half percentage point increase, which takes the bank’s base rate to 5%. The move defied market expectations, which had priced in around a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike.

Sterling slipped against the dollar after the announcement while yields on U.K. government bonds — known as gilts — also retreated slightly. The yield on the 10-year gilt was down by around 4 basis points. Yields move inversely to prices.

Fresh data on Wednesday showed annual U.K. consumer price inflation was 8.7% in May, unchanged from the previous month, cementing market expectations that the MPC would opt for another hike. Economists also upped their expectations for further monetary tightening in the future.

 
Bank of England surprises as it hikes rates to 5%
 
Most worryingly for the central bank, core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — was 7.1% year on year in May, up from 6.8% in April and marking its highest rate since March 1992.

“There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process, against the background of a tight labour market and continued resilience in demand,” the MPC said in its summary Thursday.

“The MPC will continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures in the economy as a whole, including the tightness of labour market conditions and the behaviour of wage growth and services price inflation. If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.”

Policymakers are walking a tightrope as they attempt to tighten monetary policy sufficiently to quell inflationary pressures without triggering a full-scale mortgage crisis and recession.

The MPC said that the high number of fixed-rate mortgages means that the full impact of the increase in the bank rate so far “will not be felt for some time.”

Since the end of 2021, the bank has hiked its main rate from 0.1% to 5%.

“The economy is doing better than expected, but inflation is still too high and we’ve got to deal with it,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement Thursday.

“We know this is hard — many people with mortgages or loans will be understandably worried about what this means for them. But if we don’t raise rates now, it could be worse later.”

A ‘hawkish super-hike’

Although the market had partially priced in the larger increase, several analysts suggested that the size of the majority voting in favor of it implied a sense of urgency among MPC members.

Joseph Little, global chief strategist at HSBC Asset Management, said the “hawkish super-hike” comes at a critical juncture for the economy and signals policymakers’ desire to “get ahead of the curve.”

“The U.K. finds itself in the worst position of major western economies. A cost of living crisis, brought about by rising energy and food prices, has been amplified by structural labour shortages, and has now metastasised into ratcheting wages,” Little said.

Made with Flourish

“Inflation pressures show more persistency and more momentum than other western economies, and that forces the Bank into a hawkish corner. Today’s statement has increased concerns of a much-higher terminal policy rate, perhaps as high as 6%.”

Although all developed economies endured a similar post-Covid pandemic deluge of inflationary pressures, U.K. headline inflation is decelerating at a much slower rate, while the core component is significantly higher than all other G10 nations and still accelerating.

Huw Davies, investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management, said Thursday’s move from the MPC was “a tacit admission that they have been behind the curve in their hiking policy,” and the rate rise represents “an attempt to regain the initiative and their credibility.”

“The key problem is that U.K. real rates have consistently been negative despite the tightening cycle. It feels like the BOE will have to inflict more pain on U.K. households to achieve a return to a controlled level of inflation more in line with their inflation target,” Davies said.

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