不再有他们和我们，告别美国霸权
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/21/nic-report-america-china
中国将成为变革的最大受益者，财富从西方流向东方，各国争夺稀缺资源
朱利安·博格 2008 年 11 月 21 日
国家情报委员会（NIC）提出的世界观缺乏布什时代的黑白、我们与他们、善与恶的清晰性。 它是一个充满竞争的权力中心、稀缺资源和无数潜在的系统冲击的地方。
最重要的是，国家情报委员会的报告宣布美国霸权的终结，这一结论可能会受到华盛顿剩余的新保守派的质疑。
“较少的主导力量”
NIC 题为《变革的世界》的报告称：“到 2025 年，国际体系将成为全球多极体系，发达国家和发展中国家之间的国家实力差距将继续缩小。”
这与柏林墙倒塌和苏联解体后美国所享受的“单极时刻”相比是一个巨大的转变。 NIC 总结道，现在这个时刻已经过去了。 巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)领导的民主党声称该计划被布什政府的傲慢所浪费。 但无论原因是什么，他们都必须承担后果。
美国相对于世界其他国家影响力的丧失将不仅体现在军事上，也体现在经济上。 到 2025 年，美国可能会继续部署世界上最强大的军事力量，但 NIC 警告未来的总司令，“其他国家在科学技术方面取得进步，国家和非国家行为体扩大采用非常规战争策略， 远程精确武器以及越来越多地使用网络战攻击将日益限制美国的行动自由”。
中国的崛起
国家情报委员会的报告称，即将到来的多极时代的最大赢家将是中国。
报告预测：“未来20年，中国对世界的影响力将超过任何其他国家。” 按照目前的趋势，到2025年，中国将成为世界第二大经济体，并很可能成为最大的自然资源进口国和最大的污染国。 它将成为一个领先的军事强国，拥有一支庞大的海军来保护输送原材料的海上通道，同时运用高科技的不对称工具。
美国国会一个小组周三晚间声称，中国已经在练习其网络战技能。
西方民主模式的胜利存疑
NIC表示，从单极世界向多个全球大国争夺的世界转变，其形式是财富从西方向东方转移，其规模和速度都是前所未有的。 这种转移是由高油价推动的，高油价使海湾地区和俄罗斯的生产商致富，以及制造业不断向中国和亚洲其他地区的低工资经济体转移。
这种东移还导致世界经济重心从自由市场资本主义转向国营结构。 报告称：“在很大程度上，中国、印度和俄罗斯并没有遵循西方自由主义的自我发展模式，而是采用了不同的模式，即‘国家资本主义’。”
它直接否定了新保守主义信条，指出西方民主的进步没有什么“注定的”，至少在中期是这样。 从长远来看，这表明，一旦中国和俄罗斯等国家无法再满足中产阶级的期望，推动民主的力量可能会增强，但民族主义和仇外心理的倾向也可能会增强。
国家崩溃和国际机构失败
国家情报中心的报告预测，索马里将出现更多失败和无法无天的国家。 随着国家之间的权力流动，世界某些地区将出现另一种转变：从国家转向企业、部落、宗教团体和犯罪团伙等“非国家行为体”。
“一些国家甚至可能被犯罪网络‘接管’和管理。在非洲或南亚地区，由于政府无力满足包括安全在内的基本需求，我们所知道的国家可能会消亡。” 报告警告。
由于水、食物和燃料日益稀缺的冲突，各国将开始崩溃，而联合国等本应充当裁判的国际组织似乎无法胜任应对这个新世界的工作。
NIC 表示：“如果没有领导人的共同努力，那些能够帮助世界应对这些跨国问题以及更广泛地减轻快速变化风险的全球机构似乎无法应对挑战。”
奥巴马希望重新推动联合国改革，使其更符合21世纪的需要，但早期潜在改革者的经验表明，该组织的制度惯性是巨大的。
气候变化和稀缺引发的新冲突
报告预计，一种“我们已经有一段时间没有见过”的冲突将会卷土重来：资源争夺战。 由于能源供应被认为更加危险，各国可能会发动战争以确保获得独家供应。 NIC提出的一种可能性是中国和印度之间的冲突，这两个快速增长的经济体争夺有限的原材料和能源。 全球变暖导致的缺水和农作物减产也可能加剧非洲国家内部的冲突。 从这个意义上说，游牧民族和农民在资源问题上发生冲突的达尔富尔可能是未来事情的一个征兆。
中东新一轮军备竞赛
NIC并不认为伊朗获得核武器是不可避免的，但伊朗伊斯兰共和国即将获得核武器的看法可能会导致其他中东国家追求自己的核野心，引发危险的军备竞赛。
报告警告说，维持冷战冷战的大体稳定的相互威慑关系可能在中东行不通。
报告称：“如果有关国家之间没有明确划定红线，在核保护伞下发生的低强度冲突可能会导致意外升级和更广泛的冲突。”
西方的人口统计和老龄化
权力东移的背后是西方的老龄化。 到2025年，世界人口预计将从68亿增长到80亿，其中几乎所有增长都将发生在亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲，只有3%在西方。
移民率高的美国将是一个例外，但欧洲和日本的老龄化将日益阻碍各国的经济，因为支持大量养老金领取者的工作年龄成年人越来越少。
报告称：“到 2010 年，发达国家中大约每 4 名工作年龄人口就有 1 名老年人。到 2025 年，这一比例将攀升至 1 比 3 甚至更高。”
相比之下，非洲马格里布地区、伊朗和黎巴嫩等国的“青年激增”将成熟为“工人激增”，然后迅速消散，从而为这些国家提供一些额外的经济推动力。
在约旦河西岸和加沙、伊拉克、也门和沙特阿拉伯等世界上陷入困境的地区，预计青年人口激增将持续存在，失业率居高不下，“动荡和暴力”也会更加严重。
最强大的经济地区及其排名将如何变化
2005年
1 美国
2 欧洲
3 中国
4 印度
5 日本
6 俄罗斯
7 巴西
2025年
1 美国
2 中国
3 欧洲
4 印度
5 日本
6 俄罗斯
7 巴西
No more them and us, with a farewell to American supremacy
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/21/nic-report-america-china
China to be biggest beneficiary of change, with wealth moving from west to east and nations competing for scarce resources
The view of the world presented by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) lacks the black and white, us and them, good and evil clarity of the Bush years. It is a place of competing centres of power, scarce resources and countless potential shocks to the system.
Most importantly, in a conclusion likely to be contested by Washington's remaining neo-conservatives, the NIC report declares the end of American supremacy.
"A Less Dominant Power"
"By 2025 the international system will be a global multipolar one with gaps in national power continuing to narrow between developed and developing countries," says the NIC report, entitled A Transformed World.
That is a dramatic shift away from the "unipolar moment" the US was said to enjoy after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. That moment has now passed, the NIC concludes. Barack Obama's Democrats claim it was squandered by the hubris of the Bush administration. But whatever the cause, they are stuck with the consequences.
America's loss of clout relative to the rest of the world will be military as well as economic. The US may continue to field the world's most formidable military force in 2025, but the NIC warns future commanders in chief that "advances by others in science and technology, expanded adoption of irregular warfare tactics by both state and non-state actors, proliferation of long-range precision weapons, and growing use of cyber warfare attacks increasingly will constrict US freedom of action".
The rise of China
The biggest winner in the coming multipolar age will be China, according to the NIC report.
"China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country," it predicts. On present trends China will have the world's second largest economy by 2025, and could well be the largest importer of natural resources and the biggest polluter. It will be a leading military power, with a considerable navy to protect the sea lanes that deliver its raw materials, and at the same time wield hi-tech asymmetric tools.
A US congressional panel claimed on Wednesday night that China was already practising its cyber warfare skills.
The triumph of the western democratic model in doubt
The shift from a unipolar world to one contested by several global powers has taken the form of a transfer of wealth from west to east that is unprecedented in its scale and speed, the NIC says. That transfer has been driven by high oil prices which have enriched producers in the Gulf and Russia, and the relentless drift of manufacturing to the low-wage economies of China and the rest of Asia.
That eastward movement has also entailed a shift in the world economy's centre of gravity from free-market capitalism to state-run structures. "For the most part, China, India and Russia are not following the western liberal model for self-development but instead are using a different model, 'state capitalism'," the report says.
In a straight repudiation of the neo-conservative creed, it states there is nothing "pre-ordained" about the advance of western democracy, at least in the medium term. In the long run, it suggests that once states such as China and Russia can no longer meet the expectations of their middle classes, the push for democracy might gather strength, but so might the drift towards nationalism and xenophobia.
State collapse and the failure of international institutions
The NIC report predicts that there will be more Somalias - failed and lawless states. As power flows between nations, there will be another shift in some parts of the world: from the state to "nonstate actors" such as corporations, tribes, religious groups and criminal gangs.
"Several countries could even be 'taken over' and run by criminal networks. In areas of Africa or south Asia, states as we know them might wither away, owing to the inability of governments to provide for basic needs, including security," the report warns.
Pulled apart by conflicts over increasingly scarce water, food and fuel, states will begin to implode, and the international organisations such as the UN that are supposed to act as referees do not seem to be up to the job of dealing with this new world.
"Global institutions that could help the world deal with these transnational issues and, more generally, mitigate the risks of rapid change appear incapable of rising to the challenges without concerted efforts from their leaders," the NIC says.
Obama wants to renew the push for UN reform to make it more relevant to the 21st century, but the experience of earlier would-be reformers suggests that the organisation's institutional inertia is formidable.
New conflicts driven by climate change and scarcity
The report envisages the return of a type of conflict "we have not seen for a while": the battle over resources. As energy supplies are perceived to be more endangered, states could go to war in an attempt to secure exclusive access. One possibility raised by the NIC is a conflict between China and India, two fast-growing economies competing for finite raw materials and energy. Lack of water and declining crops caused by global warming can also fuel conflicts within weakening states in Africa. In that sense Darfur, where nomads and farmers have clashed over resources, could be a sign of things to come.
A new arms race in the Middle East
The NIC does not believe Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons is inevitable, but the perception that the Islamic Republic is getting close to acquiring the bomb could lead other Middle East states to pursue their own nuclear ambitions, sparking a dangerous arms race.
The mostly stable mutual deterrent relationship that kept the cold war cold may not work in the Middle East, the report warns.
"Episodes of low-intensity conflict taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established," it says.
Demographics and the ageing of the west
Underlying the eastward shift of power is the ageing of the west. The world's population is expected to grow from 6.8 billion to 8 billion in 2025, and almost all that growth will take place in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with only 3% in the west.
The US, with its high rate of immigration, will be a partial exception, but the greying of Europe and Japan will increasingly hobble countries' economies, as fewer and fewer working-age adults support the massed ranks of pensioners.
"By 2010 there will be about one senior for every four working age people in the developed word. By 2025 this ratio will have climbed to one to three or possibly higher," the report says.
By contrast, "youth bulges" in the nations of Africa's Mahgreb region, Iran and Lebanon will mature into "worker bulges" before dissipating rapidly, giving those countries some added economic propulsion.
In troubled corners of the world such as the West Bank and Gaza, Iraq, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, the youth bulges are expected to persist, along with high unemployment, and more "volatility and violence".
The most powerful economic regions and how their ranking could change
2005
1 US
2 Europe
3 China
4 India
5 Japan
6 Russia
7 Brazil
2025
1 US
2 China
3 Europe
4 India
5 Japan
6 Russia
7 Brazil
