尼日尔政变：非洲军事接管是否在增加？
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46783600
作者：Peter Mwai BBC verify，内罗毕 2023 年 7 月 28 日 BBC verify
两名男子在尼亚美国民议会外示威期间举着支持尼日尔政变的标语牌尼日尔政变的支持者一直在首都尼亚美表达支持
独立后的几十年里，军事政变在非洲经常发生，人们担心军事政变开始变得更加频繁。
尼日尔由总统卫队士兵领导的接管只是近年来发生的一系列政变中的最新一起。
2022 年布基纳法索发生了两次政变，几内亚比绍、冈比亚以及岛国圣多美和普林西比也发生了未遂政变。
2021年，非洲发生了六次政变，其中四次成功。
去年，非洲联盟高级官员穆萨·法基·穆罕默德对“违宪更迭政府的死灰复燃”表示担忧。
政变什么时候才算政变？
使用的一个定义是军方或其他文职官员非法和公然企图推翻现任领导人。
两名美国研究人员乔纳森·鲍威尔 (Jonathan Powell) 和克莱顿·塞恩 (Clayton Thyne) 进行的一项研究发现，自 20 世纪 50 年代以来，非洲发生了 200 多次此类尝试。 其中大约一半已经成功——持续了 7 天以上。
津巴布韦士兵图片来源，盖蒂图片社 图片说明，
2017年津巴布韦军队干预穆加贝总统后举行庆祝活动
有时，参与此类干预的人否认这是一场政变。
2017 年，津巴布韦的军事接管结束了罗伯特·穆加贝 37 年的统治。 但其中一位领导人西布西索·莫约少将当时出现在电视上，断然否认这是军事接管。
2021 年 4 月，乍得领导人伊德里斯·代比去世后，军队任命他的儿子为临时总统，领导过渡军事委员会。 他的反对者称其为“王朝政变”。
“政变领导人几乎总是否认他们的行动是政变，试图显得合法，”乔纳森·鲍威尔说。
非洲多久发生一次政变？
1960 年至 2000 年间，非洲政变企图的总数始终保持在平均每年四次左右。
乔纳森·鲍威尔表示，考虑到非洲国家独立后几年经历的不稳定，这并不奇怪。
非洲政变的条形图图片来源，BBC SPORT
“非洲国家都有发生政变的常见条件，比如贫困和经济表现不佳。当一个国家发生一次政变时，往往预示着更多政变的发生。”
2000 年之后，政变（和未遂政变）的数量明显下降。
然而，尽管 2020 年（马里）仅报告发生了一起政变，但 2021 年的政变数量明显高于平均水平。 以下都见证了政变或未遂政变：
乍得
马里
几内亚
苏丹
尼日尔
2022 年，进行了五次尝试，但只有布基纳法索的两次成功。
Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno 图片来源，路透社 图片说明，
穆罕默德·伊德里斯·代比·伊特诺于 2021 年 4 月接替父亲成为乍得领导人
夸祖鲁-纳塔尔大学的恩杜布伊西·克里斯蒂安·阿尼表示，反对长期独裁者的民众起义为非洲政变卷土重来提供了机会。
“虽然民众起义是合法且由人民领导的，但成功往往取决于军方的决定，”他说。
哪些国家政变次数最多？
苏丹发生的政变和企图接管事件最多，达到 16 起，其中 6 起成功。
2019 年，长期执政的领导人奥马尔·巴希尔在经历了数月的抗议后被赶下台。 1989年，巴希尔本人通过军事政变上台。
西非的布基纳法索是政变最成功的国家，有九次接管和一次失败的政变。
尼日利亚在独立后因军事政变而闻名，从 1966 年 1 月到 1993 年萨尼·阿巴查 (Sani Abacha) 将军接管期间发生了 8 起军事政变。然而，自 1999 年以来，这个非洲人口最多的国家的权力交接一直通过民主选举进行。
地图显示政变最多的非洲国家
布隆迪历史上曾发生过十一次不同的政变，这些政变主要是由胡图族和图西族社区之间的紧张关系造成的。
塞拉利昂在1967年至1968年期间经历了3次政变，1971年又经历了一次政变。1992年至1997年期间，又经历了五次政变企图。
加纳也发生过军事政变，二十年来发生了八次。 第一次是在 1966 年，夸梅·恩克鲁玛 (Kwame Nkrumah) 被赶下台，次年，下级军官的尝试失败了。
2021 年，联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯表示“军事政变卷土重来”，并补充说“地缘政治分歧正在破坏国际合作……有罪不罚的感觉正在蔓延”。
总体而言，非洲经历的政变比任何其他大陆都多。 2017 年以来全球记录的 17 起政变中，除了 2021 年缅甸发生的一场政变外，所有政变都发生在非洲。
Niger coup: Are military takeovers on the rise in Africa?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46783600
By Peter Mwai BBC Verify, Nairobi BBC Verify
Supporters of the coup in Niger have been expressing their support in the capital Niamey
The takeover in Niger, led by soldiers belonging to the presidential guard, is just the latest in a string of coups that have taken place in recent years.
There were two in Burkina Faso in 2022 as well as failed coup attempts in Guinea Bissau, The Gambia and the island nation of Sao Tome and Principe.
In 2021, there were six coup attempts in Africa, four of them successful.
Last year, a senior African Union official, Moussa Faki Mahamat, expressed concern about "the resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government".
When is a coup a coup?
One definition used is that of an illegal and overt attempt by the military - or by other civilian officials - to unseat sitting leaders.
A study by two US researchers, Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne, has identified over 200 such attempts in Africa since the 1950s. About half of these have been successful - that is lasting more than seven days.
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES Image caption,
Sometimes, those taking part in such an intervention deny it's a coup.
In 2017 in Zimbabwe, a military takeover brought Robert Mugabe's 37-year rule to and end. But one of the leaders, Maj Gen Sibusiso Moyo, appeared on television at the time, flatly denying it was a military takeover.
In April 2021 after the death of the Chadian leader, Idriss Déby, the army installed his son as interim president, leading a transitional military council. His opponents called it a "dynastic coup".
"Coup leaders almost invariably deny their action was a coup in an effort to appear legitimate," says Jonathan Powell.
How often are there coups in Africa?
The overall number of coup attempts in Africa remained remarkably consistent at an average of around four a year between 1960 and 2000.
Jonathan Powell says this is not surprising, given the instability African countries experienced in the years after independence.
IMAGE SOURCE,BBC SPORT
"African countries have had conditions common for coups, like poverty and poor economic performance. When a country has one coup, that's often a harbinger of more coups."
There was a noticeable decline in the numbers of coups (and attempted coups) after 2000.
However, although there was only one coup reported in 2020 (in Mali), in 2021 there was a noticeably higher than average number. The following all saw coups or attempted coups:
- Chad
- Mali
- Guinea
- Sudan
- Niger
In 2022, there were five attempts, but only two - in Burkina Faso - succeeded.
IMAGE SOURCE,REUTERS Image caption,
Ndubuisi Christian Ani from the University of KwaZulu-Natal says popular uprisings against long-serving dictators have provided an opportunity for the return of coups in Africa.
"While popular uprisings are legitimate and people-led, success is often determined by the decisions taken by the military," he says.
Which countries had the most coups?
Sudan has had the most coups and attempted takeovers amounting to 16 - six of them successful.
In 2019, long-serving leader Omar al-Bashir was removed from power following months of protests. Bashir himself took over in a military coup in 1989.
Burkina Faso in West Africa, has had the most successful coups, with nine takeovers and one failed coup.
Nigeria had a reputation for military coups following independence with eight between January 1966 and the takeover by Gen Sani Abacha in 1993. However, since 1999 transfers of power in Africa's most populous nation have been by democratic election.
Burundi's history has been marked by eleven separate coups, mostly driven by the tensions between the Hutu and Tutsi communities.
Sierra Leone experienced three coups between 1967 and 1968, and another one in 1971. Between 1992 and 1997, it experienced five further coup attempts.
Ghana has also had its share of military coups, with eight in two decades. The first was in 1966, when Kwame Nkrumah was removed from power, and in the following year there was an unsuccessful attempt by junior army officers.
In 2021, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that "military coups are back," adding that "geo-political divisions are undermining international co-operation and... a sense of impunity is taking hold," he said.
Overall, Africa has experienced more coups than any other continent. Of the 17 coups recorded globally since 2017, all but one - Myanmar in 2021 - have been in Africa.
