A busy macro week that can potentially change equity market direction:
1 Hot CPI on Tuesday and equity + bond both sold off significantly
2 Cold Retail on TH saw recovery
3 Hot PPI put nail in the coffin for PCE on 2/29. Inflation seems to have bottomed.
4 OPEX did not dissappoint and SPX and NDX both closed around LOD. Bonds at support.
5 Dollar stronger against other currency and gld due to yld spike. SOFR now implies only 90 bps of cut for 2024.
================= next week (2/20-2/23)===============
Not much macro on calendar. Only Weds 2/21 FOMC Minutes.
All eyes on NVDA ER on 2/21.
SMCI sold off 20% from peak. Now OPEX and ER season mostly behind us, and rate market screaming higher, will equity market finally catch down to bond?
