新加坡黃循財 讚中國站起來 強起來 今日烏克蘭 明日台灣

新加坡副總理黃循財繼任總理 讚中國"站起來 富起來 強起來" 如何看"今日烏克蘭 明日台灣"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy1-L_pD1zQ&ab_channel=

Fareed Zakaria 法理德扎卡利亚，CNN主持人 华盛顿邮报专栏作家
Lawrence Wong 黄循财 新加坡总理

Fareed Zakaria
很高興也很榮幸 能回到新加坡 尤其是在紀念李光耀先生百年誕辰的這一年， 我非常懷念地記得， 許多年前我與他的第一次會面，我想大概是25年前或更久 這樣的時刻值得我們紀念。不需要太多討論他本人 而是他留下的遺產 也就是這個非凡的城市國家，我很榮幸能來到這裡 我感謝主辦單位和 所有的組織者，我們也特別榮幸能邀請黃循財先生，讓我為您簡單概述一下 這次活動的形式
然後我們就直接進入實質內容 副總理將先發表幾句開場白
然後他和我將進行一段對話 然後我們將接受公眾提問
不是公眾 而是 在場所有嘉賓的提問 我只有一個請求
就是副總理和我之間的討論 正在錄影中
以便在我的CNN節目中使用 第一 我要請各位見諒
我可能會問他一個問題 而他已經在開場白中回答過了
你們可能會覺得我要求他重複說過的話 我要請求寬容的另一點是
請不要有過度吵鬧的聲音 不要有吵雜的噓聲或瘋狂的掌聲和歡呼
我猜這不是 在新加坡需要說的事情
我什麼都不說... 我只是想先跟大家說一聲 無論如何 廢話不多說
有請新加坡副總理 黃循財

Lawrence Wong

謝謝，非常感謝 麥克風開了嗎 非常感謝 我希望我不會說出會引發大聲噓聲的話
不過 掌聲還是歡迎的 但是 讓我先說 我很高興能和你們大家一起
參加這次紀念李光耀先生 百年誕辰的會議 自從獨立以來
新加坡已經擺脫了歷史的困境 我們開創了自己的命運
自建國以來 這段旅程非常艱難 我們有許多問題需要克服
但我們的開國元勳在李光耀先生 以及所有先驅者的帶領下 正面迎接挑戰
並建設了我們今天擁有的繁榮大都市 當然 我們展望未來 有新的挑戰
周圍有許多不確定因素 我們看到一個世界 混亂不堪 充滿地緣政治緊張局勢
經濟碎片化 技術顛覆 有許多事情需要處理
但我想強調 我們必須擔心的三個大的轉變
首先 全球多邊貿易體系正受到圍攻 並將發生變化 將會演變
過去幾十年在自由貿易 和雙贏經濟合作方面
有顯著共識 國家不必成為朋友也能彼此做生意
我們鼓勵並促進相互依存 以實現更大的穩定
而那種共識已經結束 還不清楚什麼將取而代之
但我們看到一種新典範的輪廓 在美國和G7國家中逐漸顯現
這是一個典範 涉及國家更積極地參與市場
從西方發達世界的角度來看 是可以理解的 他們希望重建自己的工業基地
減少對地緣政治對手的依賴 最終增強安全性
這將對我們所有人產生巨大影響 第二 與此相關的是
我認為在可預見的未來 我們不會看到全球化的發生
如果你觀察整體貿易流量 它們已經保持在疫情前的健康水平之上
但我們將會看到全球化的不同模式
貿易和投資方式的變化 不再完全由經濟邏輯塑形
而是更多由地緣政治聯盟和安全性主導 我們已經看到高端半導體晶片的分歧
我確信這種分歧將擴展 到新的領域 尤其是競爭激烈的
像量子計算 或人工智慧等技術領域
我們希望不會超出這個範圍 但即使是有選擇性的技術領域分歧
進入兩個技術領域 也將對整個經濟產生巨大而深遠的影響
第三 所有這些的最終發展將取決於
中美關係 關係的性質已經有了很大變化
因為長時間以來 美國談論戰略互動 並讓中國成為全球體系中的
負責任利益相關者 但美國越來越感到 那種做法已經失敗了
中國的崛起 威脅到了美國的利益和價值觀 因此我們從戰略互動轉向戰略競爭
要明確的是 雙方都不希望直接對抗 也沒有哪一方想開戰
或者說非常極端的競爭將是 雙邊關係的主要特徵
我們希望有護欄來管理這種競爭 但我們必須準備
面對不可預測甚至危險的結果
我們都知道該地區有衝突熱點 包括台灣海峽和南中國海
這些地方可能會發生事故和誤判 我們必須為之做好準備的重大變化
我們希望這些都不會發生 因為所有這些重大變化意味著
我們將在一個外部環境中運作 那不再是良性的環境 對像新加坡這樣的小國家來說不太友好
但我們必須接受世界的現狀 而不是我們希望的樣子 我們只能適應
學會在這個新環境中導航 同時 我認為我們應該感到鼓舞
因為即使是最黑暗的雲中也有一線光明 即使在這個新環境中
也會為我們這樣的小國 帶來新的機會和機遇 如果我們回顧新加坡的故事 它一直是
將每一個挑戰轉化為機會 將每一個脆弱性轉化為力量
而我們今天起點更高 我們擁有更多資源
更有能力應對我們的脆弱性 我們有一個好的體制 適應和調整 並實施有效的長期政策
我們在該地區和全球擁有堅固的聲譽 作為一個可靠的樞紐
我們可以在這些競爭優勢上建設 並向前發展 最終 我們重塑命運的能力
不僅取決於政府 也取決於新加坡的全體國民 新加坡始終是一個看似不太可能
甚至不可能存在的國家 由人民的集體意志鍛造而成
只要我們彼此保持信念 就能在這個充滿不確定性的世界 開創前進之路
並持續書寫新加坡故事的更多篇章

Fareed Zakaria

非常感謝 副總理 您剛才的總結相當中肯 明智
闡述了您所面臨的種種挑戰 令人印象深刻的是 您居然沒有任何事先準備
手上也沒有參考資料 當我與李光耀談及
他對新加坡最自豪的事時 他常說人們往往聚焦在經濟成就
但對他而言 某種程度上 忽視了一件更令人印象深刻的事
那就是建構了這個國家 將這個多族裔社會 華人 馬來人和印度人
團結在馬來西亞這塊沙洲之上 做到這一點實在是了不起
新加坡被驅逐出聯邦時...
在世界各地 我們看到很多地方 出現了一種回歸部落主義的現象
回歸某種族裔的 族裔或社區的團結和感情
這曾經引起緊張局勢 在西方和東方的各個地方
你覺得這是新加坡必須應對的問題 你已經處理過這個問題了嗎
處理得很好 以至於你不再看到那些 危險或緊張局勢

Lawrence Wong

這將是一個持續的挑戰 你說得對 這很不容易
在我們短短58年的獨立歷史中 我們建立了一國強大的團結和信任
這是一個持續進行的過程 我會說我們還未到達
但致遠任重 在如此短的時間內 這已經相當了不起
我們是以這樣的基礎開始的 要成為新加坡人 你不必放棄自己的族群身份
你可以是華人 馬來人 印度人 歐亞混血 或任何背景 但當你成為新加坡人
你會在自己的傳統和文化上增添新元素 我們非常努力地創造一個社會
讓每個族群 無論你有多小 都會有一席之地
我們鼓勵他們 鼓勵每個群體去維持 他們的傳統 保留他們的文化
並慶祝這些文化 但與此同時 我們擴大了作為新加坡人的共同空間
一起建立作為新加坡人的共同意識
在過去的58年裡 作為新加坡人的意識 已經不斷增長和加強
但這是一個持續進行的過程 無論何時 部落主義的力量永遠不會消失
它們總是在背後 這有點像新冠疫情 病毒不會消失
它已經變成地方性流行病 而這些醜陋的力量 種族主義和部落主義的醜陋 黑暗力量
總是在背景中存在 我們必須理解這一點 記住這一點
但同時也要非常努力 加強我們作為新加坡人的紐帶 我們會繼續這樣做
正是這種強烈的團結意識和信任 讓我們渡過了過去三年的新冠疫情
並使我們能夠變得更加強大 隨著多語種人口的增加
我想說 與美國相比 新加坡有一種不同的方法 在我看來 你們不太強調大熔爐
我們不是大熔爐 你談到一種生活方式 讓每種文化保持自己的特色
這是關於多種族主義和多元文化主義 這意味著這不是同化
這也不是一個大熔爐 每個人都保留自己的身份認同
重要的是 每個人都知道自己的根源 自己的傳統 自己的文化
但在此之上 我們在此基礎上 建立作為新加坡人的共同意識
今天 如果你是新加坡華人 是的 你可以追溯自己的根源到中國 你是新加坡馬來人 你是新加坡印度人
你的祖先根源 可以追溯到我們周圍不同的文明 但新加坡華人
與中國的華人不同 新加坡馬來人不同於 馬來群島的馬來人
而新加坡印度人 與印度的印度人也大不相同 作為新加坡人 有一些獨特和與眾不同之處
我們能夠在這麼短的時間內建立起來 而我相信 作為新加坡人的獨特意識
會隨著時間的推移而不斷加強 你們有一些東西 有助於建立這種共同紐帶

Fareed Zakaria

你們有80%的人口 都參與的公共住房 而且
住房區塊都要反映 國家的種族構成
你們的國民要服兵役
隨著越來越多來自世界各地的人 被新加坡的成功所吸引
繼續保持這些凝聚機制還有可能嗎

Lawrence Wong

不僅有可能 而且至關重要 甚至是生存所需 因為我們不能成為一個
因種族 宗教或不同部落而分裂的國家 我們必須繼續在多樣性中建立統一
這要歸功於開國領導人李光耀先生 他們制定了非常具有干預性的政策
這些政策要求 每個住宅區 公共住宅區都要體現 新加坡的族群比例 而且每個街區
都要有這種代表性 這些政策剛推出時是很困難的 但隨著時間的推移 我們看到了好處
我們沒有到處都是單一族群區 在新加坡 不同的住宅區
不同背景的孩子們一起長大 他們上同樣的學校 在同一個操場上玩耍
從這些共同的經歷和記憶中 他們建立起強烈的新加坡人身份認同
我就是一個很好的例子 你覺得 有沒有一些張力在拉扯
比如說 新加坡人越來越富有了
他們是否更傾向於退出公共住房 不太多 公共住房的需求比以前更高
我們無法建造足夠的單位 來滿足需求 因為受到新冠疫情的延誤 我們正在趕上需求
我認為公共住房的需求依然存在 但確實存在一些緊張 總會有些緊張
我認為在我們的社會中 發展出一種 互相包容和妥協的精神更加重要
包容和妥協不是貶義詞 因為在一個多族裔的社會
在一個多元化非常豐富的社會 如果每個群體都堅持自己的最大權益
並把每次妥協都視為對自身族群的侮辱
我認為我們就會陷入巨大的麻煩 但多年來 我們反而 發展出一種包容的方式
互相妥協 不是每個群體都能得到他們想要的一切 但在某種意義上
這個制度是為所有人服務的 這就是我們要努力維持的
盡全力 盡可能長久

Fareed Zakaria

你們也樹立了偉大技術官僚體系的聲譽
你們政府中有許多非常聰明的人 他們得到很好的報酬
因此腐敗的誘因較小 然而當今的風向是民粹主義盛行
反對某種精英技術官僚體系 你擔心嗎
新加坡將不得不走上世界上 許多國家的老路
然後你們將不得不花費大量金錢 實施民粹主義政策

Lawrence Wong

這種壓力總是存在的 我們生活在資訊廣泛流通的世界
每個人都認為他們只要上網查閱 就能成為專家 在過去三年我們經歷新冠疫情時
人人都成了新冠專家 壓力總是存在的
但我認為我們仍然有很大的空間
制定好的 合理的政策 不僅在短期內奏效
也要為新加坡 和新加坡人的長遠利益著想 我們也處在會有更多思想交鋒的環境中
針對每一項新政策 要制定一項所有人都認為很棒的政策
變得越來越難 將需要做出一些權衡 取得平衡
因此 每做出一項決定 就會有反對的聲音 會有持不同意見者 會有批評
但對我這個團隊領導者而言 重要的是要思考什麼是有意義的
什麼是對新加坡和新加坡人有利的 無論是還是長遠來看 並解釋 說服
讓人們相信這是正確的做法 這就是我們要持續去做的

Fareed Zakaria

你們的人民行動黨有著 非凡的選舉成功記錄
有很多人認為 你們有不公平的優勢 但最近你們面臨了一些壓力
爆發了一些醜聞 有些涉及腐敗
你認為 你們能夠充分地 改善人民行動黨的形象
在下次大選中 重新回到近乎完全主導的地位嗎

Lawrence Wong

我們沒有近乎完全的主導 政治競爭正在加劇
這是意料之中的 說到底 對我來說
看看我們必須做的事情 尤其在近期事件和挫折之後
我們真的需要反思 學習 從那些經歷中茁壯成長
並盡我們所能 贏得新加坡人的信心和信任
從那些事件中你學到了什麼? 我相信我們是從一個很高的起點開始
這個人民對民選政府的高度信任 對人民行動黨的信任仍然存在
我當前的首要任務就是設法增加 民眾對我們的信任和支持
並確保我們能夠繼續 在下次大選中贏得
新加坡人的信心和支持 從各種醜聞和問題中 你學到了什麼?
我會說 思考 不僅僅是最近發生的事件 還有我在政府工作的更廣泛經歷
我學會了在政府工作時 保持一定的平常心
當事情進展順利 當我們做得很好 當人們稱讚我們
說我們是第一 是金牌標準 不要讓這些沖昏頭腦
但與此同時 當遇到挑戰 遇到挫折時 挫折在所難免
一帆風順是不可能的 錯誤在所難免 就像過去三年我們經歷新冠疫情時
我們遭遇了不少挫折 或是最近 我們遇到這些挫折時
我們從挫折中學習 從挑戰中學習 往往正是在錯誤和失敗中
我們找到了更大的學習和進步的動力 這就是我採取的態度

Fareed Zakaria

當你看全球經濟時 新加坡一直能夠
很好地應對全球經濟 當你審視當今局勢時
它看起來是一幅怎樣的圖景?

Lawrence Wong

我們非常擔心這些趨勢 我們擔心全球多邊貿易體系
正在遭受圍攻 圍繞自由貿易的全球共識正在改變
當我們討論經濟合作 互相依存的邏輯過去常常占上風
人們說 你們不需要成為朋友 才能相互做生意 我們提倡互相依存以實現更大的穩定
人們談論麥當勞和平理論 德國人談論通過貿易實現變革
現在 互相依存成了一個貶義詞 人們擔心相互依存會製造脆弱性
擔心互相依存會被武器化 但我認為我們有
走向另一個極端的風險 因為隨著各國對彼此的成功 投入的籌碼越來越少
我認為單方面採取行動的顧慮會減少 它甚至可能促使一些國家
採取更加咄咄逼人的行動 我們真的需要認真思考如何
在解決國家可能存在的 合理安全疑慮的同時
繼續加強我們相互依存的 貿易投資體系 你審視局勢時

Fareed Zakaria

你認為這意味著在中國更加內顧 美國更加內顧 俄羅斯基本脫離經濟體系的情況下
國際經濟增長可能會放緩?

Lawrence Wong

那當然 我認為這將對全球經濟產生影響
這將是全球經濟需要付出的代價 不以經濟效率為導向
而是以地緣政治 和安全考量為必要的全球經濟
例如 美國希望從中國進口更少商品 他們說 我們想從中國進口更少汽車
讓我們從墨西哥進口 但墨西哥沒有能力
取代中國的製造業體系 如果墨西哥想向美國出口更多汽車
很可能仍需從中國進口更多原物料 和中間零部件
從經濟的角度來看 這沒有意義 直接從中國到美國不是更有效率嗎
為什麼要繞道墨西哥 然而 不幸的是 這是地緣政治占上風的世界
我們需要為此付出代價 效率會更低 成本推動的通脹將持續更長時間
這就是我們所處的世界

Fareed Zakaria

你怎麼看待這種對產業政策的迷戀
政府介入並資助各種產業或技術
這正在發生在中國 習近平的中國製造就是圍繞這一點的
但這不僅發生在美國 也發生在歐盟

Lawrence Wong

鐘擺再次擺動了 我記得在過去幾十年裡曾有一段時期
全球圍繞放任自由的市場體系達成了共識 在90年代 新加坡經常因為
國家積極介入市場而受到批評 我們環顧四周時 覺得有點好笑
發達世界也開始 也積極擁抱產業政策了
但這裡面有區別 在新加坡 當我們談到國家參與產業政策時
我們非常小心 以一種 符合市場
強化市場信號 與我們的比較優勢相容的方式行事
政府採取行動時 我們通常專注於基礎設施 公共產品
以及做正確的事情 而不是採取反對貿易的產業政策
那些政策設置更多 貿易和投資壁壘 有本地化要求
最終 會把我們推向 經濟民族主義和保護主義的方向
我們擔心產業政策的這個方面

Fareed Zakaria

你不認為新加坡
只是實行智慧型產業政策 你們是有一套方法的
總是順應市場 而不是與市場對抗
試圖復興某些已經消失的舊產業

Lawrence Wong

我認為有好的產業政策
也有不那麼好的產業政策 我們在制定 產業政策時一直非常小心
以便我們能很好地利用公共資源 我認為如果國家制定產業政策
而缺乏同等的審慎 很有可能 政府最終會在一些領域花費大量資金
而那些領域最終是浪費的 低效的 無法實現他們希望達到的結果

Fareed Zakaria

你看西方正在進行的產業政策時 你有那些擔憂?
我們有一些那樣的擔憂

Lawrence Wong

我不能 每個人都有不同的目標
我認為有些目標 不僅僅是純粹的經濟目標 有些可能具有安全和地緣政治性質
它們遵循不同的邏輯 我們無法與
大型發達國家在這場補貼競賽中競爭 德國最近為英特爾建廠提供了
大約100億美元的補貼 100億美元是我們為新加坡
貿易和工業部提供的全部預算 我們不在同一個級別
會有一些情況 一些國家和政府提供如此大量的補貼
我們不得不說 好吧 這些公司可能不得不離開 我們無法在新加坡獲得這些投資

Fareed Zakaria

從更大的意義上說 你不擔心嗎 這是一個對小國不太友好的世界
那些貿易型國家充當全球經濟的轉口港
因為越來越重要的是 你有沒有一個大的內部市場 你有沒有一定程度的自給自足
你有沒有隨之而來的政治影響力 而新加坡不在那個級別

Lawrence Wong

我們確實擔心 這就是為什麼... 我們確實擔心我們處在一個外部環境中
這個環境對小國越來越不友好了 我們一直在有規則的
多邊秩序環境中蓬勃發展 有明確的貿易規則 適用於大國和小國
它並不總是運作得很完美 但我認為它讓我們蓬勃發展 讓各國
能夠在一個可預測和穩定的環境中運作 而不是最終陷入一種情況
那就是強權就是一切 叢林法則占上風 我們擔心事態正朝那個方向發展
這就是為什麼我們 一直在談論加強世貿組織 我們似乎在不斷重複同樣的話
我想我們有時聽起來 像是荒野中一個孤獨的聲音 當談到世貿組織的時候 但我們認為這是一個重要的機構
我們必須讓爭端 解決機制正常運轉 我們必須讓上訴機構發揮作用
我們必須思考如何加強 世貿組織 以適應這個新環境

Fareed Zakaria

你認為 當你 看世界其他地方時 全球南方曾經是一種描述方式
他們想要同樣的東西嗎 換句話說
非洲國家 也許還有拉丁美洲國家
他們在尋求以規則為基礎的國際秩序嗎 還是說這只是
新加坡和其他一些小國所關注的問題

29:13 Lawrence Wong

這可能並非首要考慮，但每個國家都希望看到 發展和增長 每個國家 每個政府都希望看到
收入提高 人民生活水平得到改善
不幸的是 當今時代艱難 人們認為有簡單的答案
認為市場不再起作用 因此 國家干預將解決問題
更多補貼將解決問題 而我認為 那樣想的人最終將大失所望

29:55 Fareed Zakaria
我認為可以說 最相信這一點的地方 毫無疑問就是習近平領導下的中國
他們提出了中國製造計劃 這完全是關於利用國家 和國家權力來引導投資
你認為中國目前看起來 相當嚴重的經濟問題
是由於它從更加市場化的方法
轉向更加國家主導的方法嗎

30:23 Lawrence Wong

眼前的問題與其說是債務問題
不如說是非常具體地圍繞房地產的問題 他們在房地產行業面臨挑戰
這是經濟中非常重要的一部分 但他們在房地產領域存在供應過剩問題
並且他們在一些 非常大的房地產公司存在過度槓桿 他們必須渡過這個大問題
還有一些跡象表明需求相當疲軟 他們面臨著青年失業問題
正在設法解決 但到目前為止需求一直很疲軟
特別是國內需求 更不用說由於西方和美國
對他們實施的所有措施 他們的出口和貿易也下降了 外商直接投資也受到了影響
他們必須想辦法刺激需求 我相信政府意識到了這一點
政府中有非常有能力的技術官僚 他們知道該怎麼做 但是 要重新啟動消費
不僅需要短期措施 還需要更長遠的結構性解決方案
以加強他們的社會安全網 而在像中國這樣的大國
開始考慮建立 更強大的社會保障和醫療保健系統 這是一項相當複雜的工程
但他們正在非常認真地思考這些問題

31:50 Fareed Zakaria

不過正如你所說 中國問題的核心
除了房地產的具體問題外 就是缺乏需求 人們確實不像以前那樣消費了
他們在存更多錢 這在某種程度上似乎與以下事實有關
在過去5到6年裡 政府對私營部門採取了非常強硬的態度
對科技行業 對在線教育和房地產行業都是如此 你認為習近平能改變他的做法嗎
公眾會被說服嗎 或者 英國央行前貨幣政策委員亞當波森說
一旦你這樣嚇到人們 就很難重新贏得他們的信心 對他們說
沒問題 投資這個體系 它會完全市場化運作的

32:53 Lawrence Wong

我認識亞當波森 看過他的評論 但我認為歸根結底
只要對中國企業做一個調查 中國人民的想法
就會發現有一種強烈的決心要向前邁進 我不認為他們把眼前的挑戰
看作是會阻礙他們的東西 他們確實存在擔憂
美國和西方實施的措施 會減緩中國獲取尖端技術的速度
但這不會讓中國止步不前 因為他們決心要向前邁進 他們認為這是中國的全球時代
中國希望在世界上有一席之地 成為一個現代化的偉大國家 因此他們有巨大的動力和決心
不僅在政府領導層 在私營企業 企業家和商界都要向前邁進
我最近讀了一個 中國科技界有影響力人士的博客
他用普通話寫了一篇博客 他說 在第一次工業革命中 出現了蒸汽機
當時中國處於孤立狀態 在第二次工業革命中有了電力
那時是動盪的清朝 在第三次工業革命中有了電腦
中國設法趕上了一些 但不完全 我們正處在第四次工業革命中
有了數位化和人工智慧 我們不會再落後了
這不是來自政府 不是來自黨內人士 這只是來自中國一個普通的科技人士
但這顯示了人民決心要迎頭趕上

34:40 Fareed Zakaria

但如果要提出反面的觀點 這種決心可能過去就存在 在印度 20世紀50年代是這樣
在日本 80年代是這樣 我想問你的是 習近平的願景是關於中國如何
在第四次工業革命中繁榮發展 很大程度是政府在經濟上主導這一進程
這是正確的做法嗎

35:03 Lawrence Wong

我認為中國將不得不找到一個平衡
他們明白 企業 最終不能由政府來主導
政府懂得做生意嗎 經濟要運轉
你需要健康 充滿活力的私營企業部門 他們將得為自己找到正確的平衡點

35:30 Fareed Zakaria

但你不認為中國會成為下一個日本 經歷20年的低增長嗎

35:37 Lawrence Wong

我不這麼認為 不會是現在 是有一些跡象表明
物價在下跌 房地產市場在下跌 人們儲蓄更多 消費更少
但我認為官員們完全理解需要做什麼
他們是有能力的技術官僚 能夠提出解決方案 來應對中國目前面臨的經濟挑戰

36:08 Fareed Zakaria

從地緣政治的角度來看 在習近平領導下 中國變得更具侵略性
特別是對其鄰國 比如對澳洲的政策
所謂的14項要求 中國政府基本上要求澳洲政府
停止做某些事情 包括要求其智庫和報紙
不要發表反華言論 與印度在邊境發生衝突
在南海對越南和菲律賓 提出一些主權聲索
你認為這背後的原因是什麼?
你認為 在這方面已經有所調整了嗎

36:56 Lawrence Wong

中國人談到他們發展歷程中的三個階段 他們要站起來 富起來 強起來
我認為他們正處在強起來階段 當你是一個強大的國家 你想要維護自己的利益
無論是在南海的主權聲索 你認為那屬於你的 還是你認為自己的利益
受到另一個國家的侵犯 你就會維護自己的利益 這就是中國一直在做的
但我認為在這個過程中 他們也明白 其他國家會做出反應
他們將不得不在這方面找到平衡

37:34 Fareed Zakaria

你認為他們已經審視過了嗎 他們遭到的反彈比他們預期的更大嗎

37:40 Lawrence Wong

他們當然遭到了美國的強烈反彈 美國所做的
將成為世界上的大問題 這種中美關係的新特點
不再是接觸 而是戰略競爭
人們說這是全方位的戰略競爭 但其實是極端競爭
我們擔心的是 在這種態勢下會出什麼問題
因為一個國家做了某事 另一個國家就可以報復
你就製造了一種針鋒相對的態勢 這可能給美中兩國帶來巨大代價
給我們世界其他國家帶來很多麻煩

38:32 Fareed Zakaria

你不認為已經達到了某種均衡狀態嗎

37:42 Lawrence Wong

肯定還沒有達到均衡 全世界都需要開始認真思考
如果用一個軍事方面的類比 在安全領域
我們會非常認真地考慮投放一枚炸彈 所造成的附帶損害
你明白使用武器會造成的破壞
分析家們和安全社群會非常仔細考慮
報復和升級的風險 你會在做任何決定前仔細考慮後果
現在我們看到在經濟和金融領域 全方位的競爭
但我認為世界在使用這類 經濟和金融工具方面沒有太多經驗
而且評估使用這些工具造成的附帶損害 並非如此簡單直接
而且我們真的應該非常認真地思考 由於中美極端競爭
正在形成的這種態勢 會把我們引向一條 對全球經濟而言是災難性的道路

40:04 Fareed Zakaria

該責怪美國還是中國?

40:05 Lawrence Wong

我不該對此發表評論
長久以來 我們都希望 與美國和中國保持友好

40:17 Fareed Zakaria

不過讓我換個方式問 你認為 這種競爭
能夠僅存在於經濟和技術領域 而不會太多溢出到安全領域嗎?
因為拜登政府 肯定一直在說我們不想發生衝突 我們尋求的是小院高牆
保護其中這些核心技術 我們認為如果把它們給中國 他們會將其用於軍事目的
在那之外 比如晶片 95%的晶片
都是開放的全球市場 我們只是對頂尖的5%有所保留 這種模式行得通嗎

41:02 Lawrence Wong

讓我這樣跟你說吧 從我與這個領域的專家交談中了解到
沒有哪種單一的晶片 你可以說如果沒有這種晶片
那麼 你的軍事現代化努力就會停滯不前
沒有這樣一種單一晶片 因為總有變通的解決方案
沒錯 對95%的晶片 你都可以找到變通的解決方案
那將是一個權衡 在性能 功耗和可靠性方面的權衡
但你可以設計出變通的解決方案 這種想法
拒絕提供5%的晶片就能遏制住中國
我認為... 是的 這會一定程度上 減緩中國獲取高端能力的速度
但這不會永遠遏制住中國 中國仍將存在
美國必須學會與中國共存
希望兩國能夠找到 管控分歧 和平共處的方式

42:22 Fareed Zakaria

當然 最大的引爆點是台灣 你認為在過去幾年裡
台灣問題變得更危險了嗎?

42:28 Lawrence Wong

肯定是的，各方都聲稱要維持現狀 但緊張局勢很高 而且還在不斷上升
我認為有些人將台灣問題描繪成 民主和專制之間的意識形態之爭
是沒有幫助的 或者說 有人將其與烏克蘭問題類比
媒體標題寫著 今日烏克蘭 明日台灣 我認為這些非常危險 令人震驚
我們希望的是 台灣問題沒有簡單的答案
但我們希望各方都能保持克制
維持現狀 如果要有任何改變 如果有的話
這種改變必須以 和平且非強制的方式發生
要讓這種情況出現需要很長時間 這就是為什麼 保持接觸很重要 保持外交很重要
我們總是被提醒 外交並非以線性方式運作 它不是一條直線
它有曲折 但我們確實需要對話 如果有些問題無法調和
有時候更明智的做法不是立即強求 達成解決方案
而是將這些問題擱置一旁 專注於共同利益的議題 希望美國和中國能夠這樣做

44:04 Fareed Zakaria

當你審視台灣局勢時 你認為正如許多人所說的那樣 習近平
決心要作為他成就的一部分
在未來五到十年內通過武力 實現台灣的統一嗎

44:25 Lawrence Wong

我認為那根本不是他們的期望 不是通過武力統一
台灣問題 對中國來說是一個非常重要的問題
因為對中國來說這是底線中的底線 關乎主權
你可以與中國談經濟 可以談貿易 談晶片 可以談知識產權
但一個中國的原則是不容談判的 因為這是主權問題
我相信這適用於許多其他國家 但他們的目標也不是
通過武力手段統一台灣
當然不是以媒體描繪的那種方式

45:08 Fareed Zakaria

但可以公平地說 這可能是他們統一台灣的唯一方式
台灣似乎並沒有強烈要求成為 中國大陸的一部分

45:23 Lawrence Wong

確實如此 與1972年相比 民意已經轉變 當時季辛吉訪問中國
雙方都理解 海峽兩岸人民 接受並認可一個中國
但今天台灣民意與1972年大不相同 但誰知道30或40年後民意會是什麼樣子

45:44 Fareed Zakaria

你說將這個問題延後處理 因為這比直接對抗它更容易

45:45 Lawrence Wong

把問題延後處理
聽起來像是一件壞事 聽起來像是人們不願承擔責任
但是還有什麼選擇呢 難道要強求 達成可能導致衝突和對抗的解決方案嗎
我不認為那更明智或是更好的做法 但我們應該接觸和對話
而且 即使在最近一段時間 我注意到烏克蘭事件後
台灣的民意有所轉變 人們更加渴望穩定
民意並沒有轉向一個中國 但在台灣民眾中
確實有了更多的理解和擔憂 關於單方面走向獨立
以及這可能給台灣帶來的後果 以及對台灣安全和穩定的影響
這在許多民調中都有體現

46:45 Fareed Zakaria

如果中國封鎖台灣或對台灣採取
某種形式的軍事干預 新加坡的立場會是什麼? 你們與台灣有軍事關係
你們在那裡進行一些軍事訓練

47:02 Lawrence Wong

我們確實有 這真的取決於情況
有許多假設的情況可能發生 與其對所有這些假設的情況進行猜測
我們的立場非常明確 我們堅持一個中國政策 順便說一句 不僅是我們
美國 所有東盟國家 世界上許多國家
都有某種版本的一個中國政策
什麼觸發了封鎖 什麼觸發了 挑釁或升級 真的取決於背景
但我們對一個中國政策的立場非常明確

47:39 Fareed Zakaria

讓我問你另一個你提到過幾次的
重大全球危機 當你看俄羅斯和烏克蘭的問題時
新加坡在譴責這一點 和支持對俄羅斯的制裁方面
一直走在前列 你認為這個問題將走向何方?

48:06 Lawrence Wong

很難說 我們沒有那麼密切地關注這個問題
因為它不在我們的地區內 但是
看起來要經歷漫長的過程 才能看到任何解決方案

48:23 Fareed Zakaria

這意味著世界將處於分裂狀態 俄羅斯將長期處於孤立地位

48:29 Lawrence Wong

不幸的是 我認為這是非常可能 發生的情況

48:36 Fareed Zakaria

在你看來 這增加了全球經濟 碎片化的壓力

48:45 Lawrence Wong

確實如此 我們擔心 正如我剛才提到的
我們將生活在一個 全球流動受到更多阻礙的世界 我們將生活在一個碎片化程度
更高的世界 這對像我們這樣的 小型開放經濟體而言並不那麼有利
但與此同時 我認為還有一線希望 即使在黑暗的雲層中
在新加坡 我們起步的位置 比我們在60年代或70年代
剛獨立時要好得多 我們有更多資源 我們更有能力應對自身的脆弱性
我們有更好的系統來適應 調整並製定有效的長期政策
我們有良好的聲譽 作為本地區乃至全世界
可靠和值得信賴的中心 我們可以在所有這些優勢的基礎上
投資於我們的競爭優勢 繼續吸引資本和人才流入新加坡
然後我們 不斷提高我們人民的生活水平
你們與美國有非常強大的安全關係 並且與中國開展了大量的經濟業務
如果這些國家告訴你們 新加坡必須在美國和中國之間做出選擇
你會怎麼說? 如果真的走到那一步 受影響的不僅僅是新加坡
而是整個世界 我們最好繫好安全帶
如果真的走到了那一步
這不像冷戰時期 你有蘇聯 你有兩個體系 你可以運作兩個體系
中國今天的規模和體量 遠遠大於蘇聯
而且已經深深地融入了當今的全球經濟 如果各國 不僅是新加坡
而是各地的國家 不得不說 我不是要選擇中國體系
就是要選擇美國體系 對所有事情都是如此 不僅僅是高科技 而是一切
這對我們所有人來說都將是災難性的 你希望不必做出那種選擇
為了世界的利益 我希望 我們不必做出那種選擇
副總理先生 這很有意思 讓我們進入提問環節
我唯一的要求是 如果你提出問題 那最好是一個問題
並且你要說出自己的名字 和所在的組織 如果有的話
如果我能看到有人舉手 我看到後面有人 我想有人會盡快
把麥克風遞過去 我們先從那邊開始
好的 尊敬的副總理閣下 尊敬的主持人 女士先生們
我來自不丹 目前正在李光耀公共政策學院
攻讀公共政策碩士學位 信任是新加坡獨特的全球賣點
我相信齊格爾齊格拉爾 他是最多產的勵志演說家之一
他說 如果人們喜歡你 他們會聽你的 如果人們信任你
他們會與你做生意 你的問題是? 為了讓鏡頭處於正確的位置 展望未來
我們如何確保新加坡 在崛起中的Z世代交會點上仍是信任中心
技術顛覆崛起 地緣政治緊張局勢 和經濟動盪的交匯點上
如何維持信任 一次回答一個問題
我們會收集一些問題 這樣副總理就能稍後回答 那邊
好的 我在24頻道工作 來自孟加拉 我是今年的AJ研究員之一
副總理 在這邊 我希望你很清楚羅興亞問題
這對孟加拉來說相當令人不安 孟加拉接納了大約120萬羅興亞人
我們看不到緬甸局勢可以穩定 在這種情況下 我很想知道你的立場
你能如何向孟加拉伸出援手
也許作為亞洲的領導者發揮作用 讓緬甸局勢恢復正常
重要的問題 讓我們再提一個這邊的問題
抱歉 那邊 好的 副總理 我來自淡馬錫理工學院
當你過渡到一個戰略競爭的領域 或可能是極端競爭的領域 面對種種挑戰
新領導人該採取什麼心理框架 在為新加坡的社會和經濟增長做貢獻
建立負責任 值得信賴的治理體系 謝謝
請回答這些問題 好的 我想第一個 和第三個問題在某些方面是相關的
因為它們都是關於建立信任和維持信任 我們如何做到這一點 對新加坡而言 在某種程度上
其實就是要有連貫性 原則性和可信性 在我們的行事中
我們一直說 我們不選邊站 我們不站在這個國家或那個國家一邊
不是偏美國或中國 我們選擇原則 什麼樣的原則
我們都支持國際法 我們支持基於規則的多邊秩序 我們支持關鍵原則 領土完整和主權
以及不受他國攻擊的自由 正如《聯合國憲章》所規定的那樣
我們一直以來的行動都與 這些原則保持一致 當美國在80年代初入侵格瑞那達時
我們在聯合國投票反對 美國的這一行動 同樣
對於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭 我們投票反對 並採取了反對俄羅斯的行動
這就是新加坡的運作方式 我們是一致的 我們是有原則的 我們的行動是可信的
人們 朋友 其他國家都知道新加坡的立場
你可能並不總是同意我們 但這就是新加坡 我們希望通過我們一貫和可預測的行動
成為一個更可靠和值得信賴的夥伴 這是在國際舞台上
在新加坡內部 信任的建立在於當我們能夠確保
每一個公民 無論背景如何 都能從國家的成功中受益 沒有人被落下
人們對新加坡的成功感興趣 也參與其中
他們感覺自己是在塑造國家的未來 這就是我們 一直以來努力做的事情
在我們的建國歷程中 展望未來 隨著我們看到更多動盪
更多破壞 更多波動 我們正在審視我們的政策 看看我們如何能加強對新加坡人的保證
這就是我們開展那項工作的原因 我們稱之為 前進新加坡 為了更新我們的社會契約
並思考在社會政策方面 需要做出哪些改變 以向新加坡人提供那種保證
例如 我認為隨著技術的顛覆 以及正在發生的快速變化
在職場上肯定會有更多的動盪 這並不意味著我們
不會創造足夠的就業機會 我相信我們能夠創造就業
我相信會有新的工作 對工人會有需求 但個人會經歷更多動盪 更多破壞
在工作中 在不同職業之間有更多轉換 因此 作為這次前進新加坡
工作的一部分 我們正在研究如何加強 我們的持續教育
和正規教育之外的培訓體系 我們還能為技能創前程這系統做些什麼
我們可以提供 更好的培訓 再培訓 提升個人技能 這樣 無論個人職業生涯中
發生什麼樣的破壞 或在職場中發生什麼
人們會有一些安全感 知道他們可以
接受培訓 接受再培訓 然後找到另一份工作 希望是一份更好的工作
他們可以在職業生涯中 獲得第二次甚至第三次勝利 這只是一個說明 說明我們將如何
不斷審視 更新 我們的政策 以確保我們在社會中保持
高度的信任 關於第三個問題 關於緬甸問題
這是一個非常重要的問題 但不幸的是 沒有簡單的答案
沒有外部力量能夠進來指揮 或告訴緬甸政府該做什麼
歸根結底 他們必須自己解決這個問題 東盟已經提出了一個計劃或五點共識
這需要時間 早些時候也發生過
包括東協在內的各方 透過推動 勸說和影響力
最終緬甸政府找到了... 或者說 緬甸軍方找到了一條前進之路
這應該是2017年發生的事 我們要看看這次是否奏效
但我們必須做好準備 這需要時間 最終 將是緬甸人民自己
不得不解決這個非常棘手的問題 讓我們從這裡再提一個問題
大家好 令人欣慰的是 有一個很高的行為準則
而且 當發生醜聞時 政客們被要求辭職
比如婚外情 什麼時候 這也會轉移到公務員隊伍中
因為 我們都尊重公務員 目前公務員隊伍具有很高的誠信
但這並不意味著沒有發生婚外情 那什麼時候會提出人力資源政策
這樣就不會有醜聞了 比如某個公眾人物與下屬發生婚外情
我們從這邊再提一個問題好嗎 副總理下午好 我是萊佛士書院的學生代表茱莉亞
我的問題是關於 新加坡的經濟立場和貿易 在新冠疫情的背景下 全球風雲變幻
我們看到貿易集團經濟體 正在進入一個保護主義時代 發達經濟體紛紛推出補貼
正如您之前提到的 作為多邊體系中的小國 是否新加坡跟隨這一趨勢以保持競爭力
並使用選擇性政策 以保護人民的利益 或者至少採取一種不同的全球化模式
這種變化會是什麼樣的呢 謝謝 讓我再補充一個問題 如果可以的話 副總理
這個問題來自iPad 也就是在線觀眾 王小姐問道
每個人都保留自己的身份認同時 在建立新加坡身份認同方面 面臨什麼樣的挑戰
我們能接納多少移民 而不會稀釋這種身份認同
謝謝 三個非常不同的問題 關於公務員和行為準則的問題
首先 就政府而言 就部長而言
就人民行動黨而言 以及審慎原則 總理已經在國會中
非常清楚地闡明了原則 但我不想贅述
或詳細闡述這些要點 但簡單來說
當涉及腐敗和刑事不法行為時 我們採取零容忍態度
我們對此非常明確 當涉及個人行為 道德問題時
情況要複雜得多 你真的必須逐一來分析 他重點強調並解釋了
三種不同的情況 一種情況是確實可能存在婚外情
這是個人行為 不符合標準 但與當事人進行了談話
他糾正了自己的行為 然後生活繼續
第二種情況則是另一個極端 存在不當關係
尤其是當存在上下級關係時 這是不對的
確實需要採取行動 當然 還有第三種情況 可能介於兩者之間
這就是人民行動黨 在道德和個人行為問題上的運作基礎
公務員隊伍有自己的準則 我會說它與我剛剛闡述的原則
沒有太大不同 但 意思是說 腐敗問題
刑事不法行為 我們採取零容忍態度
與個人行為問題之間 有非常明確的區別 它確實取決於案件的具體細節
無論是政府 人民行動黨還是公務員隊伍 我們都希望做正確的事
但同時要對無辜方 特別是對家庭成員 配偶和孩子
以同理心和敏感度對待 關於茱莉亞的問題
我想談談新加坡在應對 這種新環境時 是否會採取選擇性政策 在這種環境下
會有更多的國家補貼 更積極的產業政策
我們是否會效仿 正如我所描述的 我們不可能匹敵
許多其他發達國家提供的補貼規模
在某些情況下 我們得說太糟糕了 如果政府提供如此之多的資金
只是為了留住那項特定投資 對新加坡來說 參與這場補貼競賽是沒有意義的
但要明確的是 我們並沒有原地踏步 我們並非無所作為 我們在繼續投資於我們的能力
投資於新的增長領域 我們在繼續吸引投資來新加坡
我們充滿信心 新加坡能夠繼續做得很好 我們能夠為新加坡人
創造更多優質的就業機會 正如我剛才提到的 尤其是在經歷了新冠疫情之後
我們的聲譽很好 我們是一個可靠和值得信賴的中心 我們正在投資擴建我們的機場和海港
在金融 先進製造業 物流 綠色經濟等領域
我認為這些都是將繼續為新加坡人 無論老少 帶來增長和機遇的新領域
關於身份認同問題 是的 我們引進人口的數量是有限度的 這就是為什麼我們一直在控制人數
它不是無限制的 不是過度的 我們一直在調控數字
因為歸根結底 人數受到限制
取決於我們能在多大程度上整合新來者 我們歡迎他們 必須保持開放的社會
這不僅對新加坡至關重要 對我們而言這是生存的關鍵
因為 鑑於我們目前的出生率 大概只有超過1.0一些
如果我們不能引進移民 來補充人口 那麼我們就處於
結構性衰退之中 最終人口會下降 勞動力會下降 新加坡會衰退
我們必須繼續接納移民 歡迎那些
接受我們的價值觀和生活方式的人 應該把他們整合到我們的社會中
但我們能以多快的速度引進移民
最終 取決於我們能在多大程度上整合他們
這需要雙方的努力 需要新來者調整
並接受我們的價值觀和生活方式 但這也需要我們在新加坡
要開明 要接納他們 歡迎他們成為大家庭的一部分
我們再提一個簡短的問題 我想可以選那邊的那個人 是那個年輕人嗎 是的
你好 我來自萊佛士書院 感謝兩位先生出席此次活動
我的問題是關於新加坡的國內政策 抱歉 提前為我冗長的開場白道歉
但不幸的是 新冠疫情和宿舍的情況 揭示了外籍勞工仍然被邊緣化
要使他們融為一體 還有更多工作要做 我覺得問題在於體制
目前的工作准證制度阻礙了 外籍勞工與當地人口建立聯繫的能力
而禁止他們攜帶家屬的法律 或禁止他們申請公民身份的法律
強調了這些工人只是過客的觀念 他們只是為了工作而來
考慮到這一點 並考慮到 我們計劃在我們的勞動力中 有更大比例的這些工人
你認為我們是否應該擺脫 這種純粹功利的外國工人觀 如果有必要改變我們目前的體制 謝謝
提問非常有見地 你來回答這個問題 好嗎 當然
我們確實希望接納工作准證持有者
他們是我們經濟中非常重要的一部分 新冠疫情期間我們看到
他們做出了如此多的犧牲 我們看到 他們為建設新加坡做出了多大的貢獻
建造住宅公寓 我們的港口 很多不同方面 我們確實應該為外籍勞工
特別是工作准證持有者 確保他們能在這裡安全工作
確保他們在新加坡有一個良好的環境 我們正在繼續提高我們的標準
討論宿舍標準 剛剛更新了那些宿舍標準 以確保
我們給他們一個更好的生活環境 我們將繼續尋找不同的方式
來照顧這些外籍勞工 包括心理健康 增闢娛樂空間
政府機構非常關注的一系列問題
如果你環顧世界 看那些有大量外籍勞工的國家
我認為我們可以問心無愧的說 在新加坡 我們善待外籍勞工
我們將繼續做得更好 你說 從一些人的角度來看
有一些結構性障礙 希望能夠帶家屬進來 最終能獲得永久居留權
諸如此類的事情 如果他們所有人都突然之間 在一夜之間
成為永久居民或帶來他們的家屬 將會有挑戰 回到之前的問題
我們將沒有能力 把他們全部整合到我們的社會中 必須理解我們對於
外籍勞工和我們之間所需的平衡 我們歡迎他們 在整個從工作准證
到就業證的外籍勞工群體中 一小部分人將成為永久居民
這是受控的 是受監管的 我們希望確保那些
作為永久居民並最終成為公民的人 是那些最有機會
融入我們的社會 並接受我們生活方式的人 這必須是我們的做法
確保受管制的流入將始終存在 但這並不意味著
我們虐待其他外籍勞工 相反 我們將盡我們所能
從政府的角度 改善他們的工作條件和生活條件 我們也呼籲新加坡人盡自己的一份力
這就是為什麼如果我要在你家旁邊 建一個宿舍
請張開雙臂歡迎那個宿舍 好的
副總理先生 讓我問最後一個問題 我對此有個人興趣
因為這涉及我的一個親密朋友 總統大選(2023年9月1日) 您傾向支持哪位候選人
我會把我的選擇保密 但我鼓勵 新加坡的每一個人認真考慮
並選出最佳候選人 他可以擔任國家的最高職位
好的 以這個外交辭令作為結束 先生 非常感謝 謝謝

转写文稿

0:00
it is a great pleasure and honor to be back in Singapore particularly on uh the
0:05
year that marks leanu Centenary uh it I I remember very fondly my first meeting
0:12
with him many many years ago I think it's almost 25 uh years ago or more uh
0:18
and it is fitting that we should Mark that occasion without much discussion of him but rather the Legacy that he left
0:26
which is this extraordinary city state so uh I'm honored to be here I thank n
0:31
us and uh and all the organizers uh we are also particularly honored to have
0:38
Lawrence Wong uh here let me outline for you very simply what the uh the format
0:45
will be and then we will get right to the substance the Deputy Prime Minister will make a few opening remarks he and I
0:53
will then engage in a conversation uh for a while and then we will take questions from the public uh from not
1:01
the public but from from everyone gathered here I have only one request which is the discussion between the
1:08
Deputy Prime Minister and myself is being recorded to be used on my CNN
1:13
program so uh one I I will beg your Indulgence I might ask him a question
1:19
that he's al already answered in his uh opening remarks and so he may some I may
1:24
be asking him to repeat himself my other Indulgence to ask is uh please don't do
1:32
anything extremely noisy no loud booing or or or hysterical cheers of Applause I
1:40
suspect this is not something one needs to say in Singapore anyway but uh I hope I don't say
1:46
anything but but I just thought I would let you all know um in any event without
1:52
further Ado the Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore Lawrence Wong thank you
2:00
thanks very thanks is this on right thanks very much farit I hope I don't say anything that will illicit loud
2:07
booing Applause will be welcome though but uh let me start by saying I'm very
2:12
happy to join all of you for this conference to Mark the Centenary of Mr lean's birth since Independence Singapore has
2:20
defied the odds of history and we have charted our own destiny when we started
2:25
out the journey was very daunting and we had many problems to overcome but our founding leaders under
2:33
Mr leanu as well as our Pioneers dealt with the challenges head on and help to
2:39
build the thriving Metropolis that we have today of course now when we look ahead there are new challenges lots of
2:47
uncertainties around us we look at a world that is topsy turvy full of
2:52
geopolitical tensions economic fragmentation technological disruptions
2:58
and there are many things to deal deal with but I'd like to highlight three broad shifts that we have to worry
3:04
about first the global multilateral trading system is under siege and will
3:11
be shifting will evolve the last few decades saw a
3:16
remarkable consensus around free trade and win-win economic cooperation
3:22
countries didn't have to be friends to do business with one another in fact we encouraged and promoted interdependence
3:29
for great stability and now that consensus is over it's not quite clear what will take its
3:36
place but we are seeing the outlines of a new paradigm emerging certainly in the
3:41
US and the G7 it's a paradigm with more active
3:47
State involvement in markets understandably from the Western developed World point of view they would
3:53
like to rebuild their industrial bases reduce exposure to geopolitical rivals
4:00
and ultimately show up security and this will have huge implications for all of
4:05
us second and a related point is I don't think in the foreseeable
4:11
future we will see de globalization happening in fact if you look at overall
4:17
trade flows they have remained healthy above preco levels but we will see a
4:24
different pattern of globalization shifts in the way trade and Investments are made not so much
4:33
shaped by economic logic anymore but much more by geopolitical alignment and
4:39
security we already see the bacation in high-end semiconductor chips and I'm
4:45
sure that bation will expand to new areas particularly contested areas of
4:51
Technology like Quantum Computing or artificial intelligence and we hope it won't go
4:58
won't go beyond that but even a selective bation into two
5:04
technological spheres will have tremendous impact and profound implications for the entire
5:10
economy uh thirdly how all of this unfolds
5:16
ultimately will depend on the US China relationship there has already been a big shift in the nature of the
5:22
relationship because for a long time the US talked about strategic engagement and
5:28
getting China to be a responsible stakeholder in the global system but there is now a growing sense in America
5:34
that that approach has failed that China's rise threatens America's interest and values and so we have
5:41
shifted from strategic engagement to strategic competition to be clear neither side
5:49
wants an outright confrontation not neither side wants to go to war but Intense or if not extreme competition
5:56
will be the defining feature in the bilateral relation relationship uh we hope there will be guard rails to manage
6:03
that competition but we have to be prepared for unpredictable or even
6:09
dangerous outcomes emerging and we all know that there are hot spots in the region including in the Taiwan Straits
6:16
and South China Sea where accidents and miscalculations can happen so these are the major changes
6:24
around us that we have to be prepared for we wish none of this were happening
6:29
because all of these big changes really mean that we will be operating in an
6:35
external environment that will be less benign and less hospitable for small states like
6:41
Singapore but we have to take the world as it is not as we would like it to be
6:46
so we will just have to adapt and learn to navigate in this new environment at the same time I think we
6:54
should take heart that there are silver linings even in the darkest of clouds
7:00
and so even in this new environment there will be new there will be new opportunities for small countries like
7:06
us and in fact if you look at the Singapore story it's always been about
7:12
turning every challenge into opportunity converting every vulnerability into
7:17
strength and we are starting off in a far stronger position today we have more
7:23
resources we are better equipped to deal with our vulnerabilities we have a good system in place to adapt and adjust and
7:29
put in place effective long-term policies and we have a solid reputation as a reliable and trusted hub for the
7:36
region and the world so we can build on all of these competitive strengths to move forward in the end our ability to
7:44
reinvent Destiny as it were depends not just on the government but on all of us
7:50
in Singapore because Singapore will always be an improbable and unlikely
7:55
Nation forged out of the collective will of our people so if we keep Faith with
8:01
each other we will be able to chart our way forward in this uncertain world and
8:06
continue to write many more chapters of the Singapore story thank you so much uh Deputy Prime
8:13
Minister that was a very cogent and intelligent summary of
8:19
the kind of challenges you're facing uh particularly impressive that you gave it without any prepared remarks or notes in
8:25
your uh in your hand um when Lewan Yu would talk to me about
8:31
what he was most proud about about Singapore he often said that um people
8:37
focused on the great economic success and that to him that that in a sense
8:43
forgot something that was even more impressive which was the building of a
8:48
Nation out of a polyglot community of Chinese Malay Indians on this
8:54
sandb uh at the edge of Malaysia when when uh when they were
9:00
when when he was expelled when when Singapore was expelled from it around the world a lot of places we
9:08
are seeing a return to a kind of tribalism a
9:13
return to a c certain kind of ethn you know ethnic or communal uh solidarity
9:20
and feelings which has causing tensions in various places in the west and in the
9:28
East do you you feel like that is a problem that Singapore has to deal with or have you dealt have you dealt with
9:35
that problem well enough that you don't see those those dangers or those tensions it will be a continuing
9:42
challenge you rightly said that it is quite remarkable that in our short 58
9:48
years of Independence we have built a strong sense of solidarity and Trust as
9:53
one people it's a work in progress I would
10:00
say we have never we've not arrived but we have come a long way quite remarkable for such a short period of time we
10:09
started on this basis that to become a Singaporean you do not have to give up
10:14
your ethnic identity you can be Chinese Malay Indian Eurasian whatever
10:20
backgrounds but when you become a Singaporean you add to your Traditions
10:25
your cultures so we try very hard to create a society where every ethnic
10:30
group no matter how small you are will always have a place we we encourage them
10:36
to every group to maintain to retain our their Traditions retain their cultures
10:43
and celebrate those but at the same time we enlarge the common space we have as
10:49
singaporeans we build that common sense of being Singaporean together and in the
10:56
last 58 years that sense of being Singapore has grown and strengthened but it is a work in
11:03
progress it will never the the the forces of tribalism will never go away
11:08
they are always at the background it's a bit like covid-19 the virus doesn't go away like
11:15
now it's emic and these ugly forces ugly dark Forces of racialism and tribalism
11:22
are always there the background we have to understand that keep that in mind but
11:28
at the same time work very hard to strengthen our bonds of as singor which we will continue to do and that that
11:34
strong sense of solidarity and trust is what got us through the last three years of covid-19 and enabled us to emerge
11:42
stronger you know with the with the polyot population as like say the United
11:47
States Singapore has a slightly different approach it seems to me uh you
11:52
don't emphasize as much the melting part we are not the melting right you talk about a kind of Live and Let Live and
11:59
each culture being its own it's about multiracialism and multiculturalism that means it's not
12:05
assimilation it's not a melting Port either everyone REM retains your own
12:10
sense of identity you it's important that everyone knows their Roots uh their
12:16
Traditions their cultures but on top of that we layer on top of that that common
12:22
sense of being Singaporean and so today if you are a Chinese Singaporean yes you can have
12:27
your roots linked back to China you are Malay Singapore and you are Indian Singapore and your our ancestral roots
12:34
go back to different civilizations around us but the Chinese Singaporean is
12:39
different from the Chinese in China the Malay Singaporean is different from the Malay in the Malay archipelago and the
12:45
Indian Singaporean is quite different from the Indian in India there is something distinctive and unique about
12:51
being Singaporean which we have been able to built within this short period of time and I'm sure that sense of being
12:57
Singaporean that distinctive sense of of being Singaporean will continue to strengthen over time you have a number
13:03
of things that help Forge that common Bond you have public housing that 80% of
13:10
the population participates in and the the housing blocks are uh um are meant
13:18
to reflect the racial composition of the country uh you have national service
13:24
military service will it be possible to continue those those kinds of uh bonding
13:31
mechanisms as you get more and more people coming from all over the world attracted by the the sing by Singapore
13:38
success not just possible it is essential even existential because we cannot afford to be a country divided by
13:45
race religion or by different tribes we must continue to build Unity
13:51
out of diversity and so it's credit to our founding leaders like Mr liwanu that
13:57
put in place very intrusive policies which required every housing estate
14:03
public housing estate to represent the ethnic proportions of Singapore and every block to have that
14:10
representation it was difficult when these policies were first introduced but over time we have seen the benefits of
14:16
it we do not have ethnic enclaves everywhere you go in Singapore different housing Estates children grow up
14:24
together different backgrounds they go to the same schools they go to they play in the same playground
14:29
and out of those shared experiences and memories they develop that strong sense of Singaporean identity I am a good
14:36
example of it do you do you feel as though um are
14:41
there tensions pulling at it for example you know uh people are getting richer
14:47
and richer in Singapore are they trying to opt out of Public public housing more not so much um demand for public housing
14:54
is higher than before we are not able to build enough Flats to meet the demand because of the delays due to covid and
15:02
we are catching up with demand so I think the demand for public housing remains but there are tensions there are
15:09
there will always be tensions um I think we have also more importantly in our
15:14
society develop an eour of accommodation and compromise accommodation and compromise
15:21
is not seen as a bad word because in a multi ethnic Society in a a society of
15:27
great diversity if every group insists on their maximum
15:32
entitlement and takes every compromise as a slight as as as a insult to their
15:42
tribe I think we will be in for huge trouble but over the years we have in
15:47
state developed an approach of accommodation compromise give and take not every group gets everything they
15:54
want but there is a sense that this is a system that works for all and that's
16:00
what we will try to sustain for as long as we can you also have built a reputation as
16:06
a great technocracy you have all these very bright people in government they
16:12
get paid well uh so that there is less incentive for corruption um and yet The
16:18
Winds of today are all about populism and against a certain kind of elitist
16:25
technocracy do you worry that you know Singapore will have have to go down the path of uh of so many of these countries
16:33
around the world and then you you know you'll have to spend all this money and uh you know engage in populist uh
16:39
policies the temp the the pressures will always be there I mean we are in a world
16:44
now where information is widely available and so everyone thinks that they can become an expert just by
16:51
reading on the internet I mean when we had covid in the last three years everyone was a covid expert
17:00
so the the pressures are always there but I think there is still a lot of room
17:06
for us to develop good sound policies that work
17:12
not just you know for the immediate term but for the long-term good of Singapore and
17:18
singaporeans I we are also in a environment where there will be greater contestation of ideas for every new
17:25
policy decision for every decision that is made it's harder and harder to have policies
17:31
that where everyone says this is a wonderful thing to do there will be some
17:36
trade-offs to make balances to strike and so for every decision that is made
17:42
there will be opposing views there will be denters there will be criticism but
17:47
what's important certainly for me as a a leader of the team is to think about
17:52
what makes sense what's right for Singapore and for singaporeans now and in the long term and expl explain
17:59
persuade convince people that this is the right thing to do and that's what we will continue to do now the pap your
18:06
party has had a remarkable record of success electoral success there are many
18:11
people who feel that you have unfair advantages um but you have faced some
18:17
pressures recently there have been scandals uh some of it uh surrounding
18:23
corruption do you think that uh you will be able to
18:29
clean up the image of the papap enough that you will uh in the next election
18:34
see a return to the kind of uh near tootal dominance we don't have near
18:40
tootal dominance it is political contestation is increasing
18:48
that's to be expected uh at the end of the day for me
18:54
looking at what we must do uh particularly after the recent incidents and the setbacks we have suffered it's
19:01
really for us to reflect learn emerge and and grow stronger from
19:07
that experience and do everything we can to win the confidence and Trust of singaporeans what what did you learn
19:14
from those well I believe we we start off actually from a very high base and that high base of trust between the
19:21
people and the elected government and the pap is still there it's still there so what I my my immediate priority is to
19:29
see how I can strengthen that reservoir of social capital and trust and ensure
19:36
that we can continue to earn the confidence and Mandate of sing of forign when we next go to the polls what did
19:43
you learn from the from the various scandals and
19:49
problems I would say you know thinking about not just the recent incidents but
19:55
also the broader experience I've had in government I've learned to have a
20:00
certain sense of equanimity in government when things go right when things go well for us when
20:08
people phrase us and say we are number one we are gold standard don't let that
20:13
go into our heads but at the same time when there are challenges and when there are
20:19
setbacks and they are bound to be setbacks nothing is smooth sailing there are bound to be Mystics like in the last
20:26
three years when we went through covid we had our fair share of setbacks or more recently when we have had this
20:33
setbacks then we learn from the setbacks we learn from the challenges and in fact
20:38
very often it's the mystics and the failures it's in the mystics and the failures where we find greater
20:44
motivation to learn and to do better and that's the attitude I
20:50
take when you look at the the world economy uh Singapore has always been
20:56
able to navigate the world economy very well what does when you look at it today
21:03
does it look like uh an attractive picture we are very worried about the
21:10
trends we are worried about how the global multilateral trading system is coming under
21:16
siege there is a change in the global consensus around free trade and win-win economic
21:22
cooperation the logic of interdependence used to Prevail people said you didn't
21:27
countries didn't have to be friends to do business with one another in fact we promoted interdependence for greater
21:34
stability people talked about the McDonald's theory of Peace the Germans
21:40
talked about change through trade now interdependence has become a
21:46
bad word people worry about inter interdependence creating
21:52
vulnerabilities and that interdependence will become weaponized but I think we are at risk of
22:01
Shifting to The Other Extreme because with countries having fewer stakes in
22:06
one another's success I think there will be less inhibitions to act unilaterally and it
22:12
may even embolden states to take more aggressive actions so we really need to
22:18
think hard about how we continue to strengthen our system of trade Investments interdependence while
22:26
addressing legitimate security concerns that countries may have so when you look at it do you think
22:32
it means the international economy is likely to grow slower with the with the
22:37
China that is more inwardly focused with the US that is more inwardly focused with the Russia that's essentially out
22:43
of the economic system for sure I think there will be an impact on the global economy there will be a price to pay for
22:50
a global economy that is organized not by economic efficiency but by
22:57
geopolitics and security prity considerations and imperatives for example America wants to
23:03
import less from China they say well we want to import fuel cars from China let's import from Mexico but Mexico
23:11
doesn't have the capability to replace China's manufacturing system and if
23:17
Mexico wants to export more cars to America it will have to very well import
23:23
more raw materials and intermediate components from China anyway so from an
23:28
economic point of view it doesn't make sense you say well isn't it more efficient to just go direct from China to America why go through
23:36
Mexico but unfortunately this is a world where geopolitics prevails and there will be a
23:43
price to pay it will be greater inefficiency more costs inflation will continue for longer and that's the world
23:50
that we are in what do you think of this uh fascination with industrial policy
23:56
with governments stepping in and funding various Industries or
24:01
Technologies uh and it's happening in of course in China Shi jinping's made in China is all about that but it's now
24:08
happening in the US it's happening in the European Union there again the pendulum has
24:15
shifted because I remember a time again in the last few decades where we had a
24:20
global consensus around lazy fair market systems in the '90s Singapore was
24:25
routinely criticized for having active state involvements in the
24:31
markets now we are a little amused when we look around and the developed world has started embracing active industrial
24:38
policies too but there is a difference in Singapore when we talk
24:43
about State involvement industrial policies we are very careful to act in a
24:49
way that is in line with the market that reinforces market signals that is
24:55
compatible with our comparative advantages when the government takes actions we very often focus on
25:02
infrastructure public goods um and and doing the right things rather than
25:08
having industrial policies that are anti-trade that put up more barriers to
25:15
trade and Investments have local content requirements and in the end move us in
25:22
the direction of economic nationalism and protectionism so we worry about that
25:28
as ECT of industrial policies so you don't think it's just that you and Singapore do smart industrial policy and
25:34
others do there there is a there is a method to the way you you did it which was always pro market rather than in a
25:43
sense fighting against the market to try to revive some old industry that has
25:48
gone away I think there is good industrial policy and not so good industrial policies we have been very
25:54
careful in How We Do industrial policies so that we make good use of public resource I think if countries and enter
26:03
into industrial policies without the same care it is very possible that governments would end up spending a lot
26:09
of money on areas that end up being wasteful inefficient and do not lead to
26:14
the outcomes that they hope to achieve and when you look at the industrial policy being done in the west you have
26:20
those concerns uh we have some of those concerns I can't everyone has different objectives
26:27
I think some of the objectives are not just purely economic uh some of them may be security and geopolitical in nature
26:35
so they are driven by a different logic um we we cannot compete with the
26:41
large developed countries in this subsidies arms race Germany recently gave out about $10 billion in subsidies
26:49
for Intel to set up a factory 10 billion dollars is the entire amount of budget
26:55
we provide for the ministry of trade and Industry in Singapore so we are not in the same league and there will be
27:02
instances where countries and governments are giving out such large subsidies we'll have to say fine the
27:08
companies May well have to go and we can't have the investments in Singapore and in a in a larger sense
27:14
does doesn't it worry you that um this is a world that is less friendly to small states that are trading states
27:21
that act as uh as as sort of uh uh entos
27:26
of the global economy because increasingly what seems to matter is do you have a large internal Market do you
27:32
have a certain degree of self-sufficiency do you have the political weight that comes with that
27:39
and Singapore isn't quite in that League we do worry that's why I I I we do worry
27:46
that we are in an external environment that is increasingly become less hospitable to small
27:52
states we have long tried in an environment where there's a rules-based multilateral order where there are clear
27:58
rules for trading for countries applicable to countries big and small it's not always worked perfectly but I
28:05
think it has allowed us to thrive and countries to operate in a predictable
28:10
and stable environment rather than go end up in a situation where might is right and the law of the Jungle prevails
28:17
uh we worry that this is moving in that direction uh and that's why we keep
28:23
talking about strengthening the WTO um we sound like a broken record I think we
28:29
sound sometimes like a lone voice in the wilderness when it comes to the WTO but we think it's an important institution
28:35
we have to get the dispute the uh settlement body to function properly we have to get the appet body to work and
28:42
we have to think about how we can strengthen the WTO for this new environment do you think that uh when
28:49
you look at the rest of the world the global South you to be one way of
28:54
describing it um that they want the same thing in other words is is is part of
29:02
what the countries in Africa and uh maybe in Latin America are are they
29:07
looking for rules-based international order or is this something that is you know Singapore and a few other small
29:14
states are concerned about it may not be top of mind but every country wants to
29:21
see development growth every country every government wants to see improved
29:27
incomes and better standards of living for their people the unfortunate thing is the
29:33
Zeitgeist of our times is such that people think that there are easy answers
29:39
that subsidies that markets don't work anymore therefore State intervention
29:45
will solve the problem more subsidies will solve the problem and I think
29:50
people who think like that will be Solly disappointed eventually so the place that I think one
29:57
could say say most believes that uh without any question now is Xi jinping's China they made in ch in China policies
30:05
all about using the state and the power of the state to direct investment and um
30:11
do you think that China's current economic problems which seem fairly significant are a result of of it moving
30:19
away from a more Market oriented approach toward a more State oriented
30:25
approach I would say that the immediate problem problems are not so much debt
30:30
but very specifically one around real estate they have a challenge in the real in the
30:36
property sector it's a very important part of the economy but they have a supply overhang problem in real estate
30:44
and they've got exess leverage in some very big property companies so they have
30:49
to get through that big problem uh there are some also in addition sense that
30:57
demand is quite weak they have a youth unemployment issue which they are addressing but demand so far has been
31:03
weak and in particular domestic demand has been weak not to mention that
31:08
because of all the measures that the west and America has imposed on them their exports and their trade has also
31:15
come down fdis have also been impacted so they have to find some way to
31:20
stimulate demand the government I'm sure is aware of this they they are very competent technocrats in government they
31:27
know what to do but uh to to get consumption going again requires not
31:34
just short-term measures it also requires longer term structural solutions to strengthen their social
31:40
safety net and in a large country like China to start thinking about putting in
31:46
place stronger Social Security and Health Care Systems that is quite a complex undertaking but they are
31:53
thinking very hard about these issues as you said though the core of the problem
31:58
in China outside of the specifics of real estate is a lack of demand there is
32:03
there is people are just not spending as much um and they're saving a lot and it
32:09
does seem this is in some ways related to uh the fact that the government has been very tough on the private sector
32:16
over the last five or six years on the tech sector on online education on real
32:22
estate so do you is there a way you think that
32:29
the the the can she change his course and will the public be convinced or you
32:35
know is it Adam Posen the former deputy governor of the British Central Bank
32:40
says once you scare people like that it becomes very hard to regain their confidence and say no you know it's fine
32:48
invest in this system it's all going to be Market oriented I I read I I I know Adam pson I
32:55
seen his comments but I think at the end of the day if you look at you know just do a survey of of
33:03
what Chinese businesses Chinese residents what people in China think
33:10
there is a great determination to move forward I don't think they see the
33:15
immediate challenges as something that will hold them back they do there there
33:21
there are concerns that the measures that have been imposed by the US and the
33:26
West will slow down China in terms of accessing cutting Ed
33:32
Technologies but it's not going to keep China down because they are determined to move forward they see this is China's
33:38
time in the world and China wants to take its rightful place in the world as a modern great nation and and so there
33:45
is tremendous drive and determination not just at the government leadership
33:50
level but amongst the private businesses entrepreneurs businesses to move forward
33:56
I read a Blog recently by a Chinese uh tech tech influencer they
34:03
wrote A Blog in Mandarin he says in the first Industrial Revolution you had
34:08
steam engines China was in isolation in the Second Industrial Revolution with
34:14
electricity you had the talus sing Dynasty in the third Industrial
34:19
Revolution with computers well China managed to catch up some but not completely now we are in the fourth
34:26
Industrial Revolution with digitalization and AI we will not be
34:31
left behind and this is not from a government not from a party person this is just from a ordinary Tech person in
34:39
China but it shows you the determination of the people to want to get the H but if one were to play Devil's
34:46
Advocate the that determination probably was there in I don't know in India in the 1950s and Japan in the
34:54
1980s my question to you is XI jinping's vision of how China will prosper in that
35:00
fourth Industrial Revolution is very much that the government will lead the process economically is that the right
35:08
approach I think they will have to find a balance in China they understand that business and
35:16
Enterprise cannot ultimately be led by government what does government know about doing business you need a healthy
35:24
vibrant private Enterprise sector for the economy to work and they will have to find the right balance for themselves
35:32
but you don't think China is the next Japan 20 years of of low growth I don't
35:37
think so not not not right now because yes there is there are signs
35:45
of low you know prices coming down uh property Market saving people are saving
35:52
more not spending but I think the officials understand fully what needs to
35:58
be done and there are competent technocrats that will be able to come up with solutions to tackle the current
36:05
economic challenges that China faces when you look at it geopolitically um
36:11
under Xi Jinping China has been much more aggressive uh particularly uh with
36:16
its neighbors so the policies toward Australia for example the so-called 14 demands where the Chinese government
36:23
essentially asked the Australians uh government to stop doing certain things including to
36:31
have its think tanks and its newspapers not print anti-chinese things um The
36:36
Clash in the borders with India some of the claims with Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Seas um
36:45
do you think that uh what do you think explains that and do you think uh that
36:52
we that there has been a c correction there the Chinese talk about three
36:57
phases in their Journey they want to stand up get rich get strong I think
37:02
they are in the get strong phase of their journey and when you're a strong country you want to assert your interest
37:09
whether it's claims in the South China Sea that you feel it's yours whether it's interest that you
37:15
feel you know are infringed upon by another state then you assert your interest and that's what China has been
37:21
doing but in the course of doing so I think they also understand that there
37:27
will be a reaction from other countries and again there they will have to find their balance in going about this do you
37:34
think that they have they they have looked at do you think they they got more push back than they
37:42
expected they certainly got a strong push back from the US and and so what America has done
37:51
now is going to be the big issue in the world this new relationship the the new
37:59
defining feature of us China relationship is no longer one of Engagement but one of strategic
38:07
competition people say it's full spectrum strategic competition but it's really extreme competition and what we
38:15
worry about is what can go wrong in this dynamic because one country does
38:21
something the other country can retaliate and you create a tit for
38:26
dynamic that can result in huge cost for both America and China and a lot of
38:32
trouble for the rest of us in the world so you don't feel that there is a
38:38
kind of uh equilibrium that has been reached right now certainly not in
38:45
equilibrium I think we the the world has to start thinking hard about you see if
38:50
you take a military sort of parallel in in the security
38:55
world we think think very hard about the collateral damage that's associated with
39:02
dropping a bomb people you know you understand the damage that you will inflict with using
39:09
a weapon but you analysts the security Community thinks very hard about
39:16
retaliation the risk of escalation and then you consider carefully the consequences before you make any
39:23
decision now we are seeing full spectrum competition across economic and
39:29
financial Arenas but I don't think the world has a lot of experience using these sorts of
39:35
Economic and financial tools and we it's not so straightforward to assess the
39:40
collateral damage that will be inflicted with the use of these tools and and we
39:47
we really should think very hard about how the dynamic that's now being created
39:53
because of the US China extreme competition can lead us down a path that
40:00
will be disastrous for the global economy who's to blame the us or
40:07
China I should not comment on that we want to be friends with both America and
40:12
China for a very long time um let me ask it another way though um
40:20
do you think that do you think that this competition can exist in the economic
40:26
and technological iCal spheres without spilling over as much into the security
40:32
sphere because the the Biden Administration certainly keeps saying look we don't want conflict what we are
40:37
looking for is a small garden with a small yard with high walls of these core
40:44
technologies that we believe if we were to give to China they will use it for their military and so outside of that so
40:52
for example with chips 95% of chips it's an open Global Market it's just the top
40:58
5% that we are reserving is that model workable well let me put it to you like
41:04
this my understanding from talking to experts in this field is that there is
41:09
no single chip which you can say if you don't have this
41:14
chip then all your modernization efforts your
41:20
military modernization efforts will grind to a halt there is no single chip
41:25
like that because there are always workaround Solutions exactly with the
41:31
95% of chips you can find workaround Solutions there will be a tradeoff
41:37
trade-off in terms of performance in terms of power consumption in terms of
41:43
reliability but you can design a workaround solution so this idea that
41:50
having 5% of chips denying access will keep China down I think is yes it will
41:57
slow down China's access to high-end capabilities to some extent but it's not
42:05
going to keep China down forever China will still be around and America has to
42:11
learn to live with China and coexist with China and hopefully the two countries will be able to find ways to
42:18
manage their differences and live together so the biggest flash point of
42:24
course is Taiwan do you think things have gotten more dangerous uh with
42:30
regard to Taiwan in the last few months for sure they have all Sites claim to uphold the
42:36
status quo but tensions are high and continuing to
42:42
rise it does not help that I think some parties portray Taiwan as a issue of
42:48
ideological contest between democracy and autocracy or that you know there are
42:54
people who draw a parallel with Ukraine and you've got media headlines saying
42:59
Ukraine today Taiwan tomorrow I think these are very dangerous and these are
43:05
alarming so what we hope is that I mean there are no easy answers
43:12
for Taiwan but what we hope is that all parties will exercise restrain and
43:19
maintain the status quo and if there were to be any change
43:25
if any such change has to happen in a way that's peaceful and non forceable it
43:32
will take a long time for this to happen and that's why it's important to continue engagement to continue
43:38
diplomacy diplomacy as we are always reminded does not operate in a linear fashion it's not a straight line it
43:45
curves and bends and and but we have to talk if there are issues which are
43:50
irreconcilable sometimes the wiser thing to do is not to force a resolution
43:56
immediately but to set these issues aside and focus on the issues of common interest and hopefully us and China can
44:03
do so when you look at the Taiwan situation do you think that xiin ping as
44:09
many people say is determined to AC to as one of part of his achievements of of
44:17
his accomplishments uh to to achieve a forceable reunification of Taiwan in the
44:23
next 5 10 years I don't think that's their basic expectation at all not a
44:30
forceable reunification Taiwan is to China a very important matter
44:37
because it is to China the raest of red lines it is about sovereignty you can talk about economics
44:44
with China you can talk about trade you can talk about chips you can talk about intellectual property but one China
44:51
that's non-negotiable because it's a matter of sovereignty and I'm sure this applies to
44:57
to many other countries but neither is it their objective to reunify Taiwan
45:05
through forcible means certainly not in the way that has been portrayed in the media but it's
45:11
fair to say that that's probably the only way they could reunify it in I mean
45:17
right now it does not appear that Taiwan is clamoring to become part of of mainland China yes indeed so sentiments
45:25
have shifted compared to 1972 when kingra visited and there was an
45:30
understanding that on both sides of the streets people accept and recognize One
45:36
China sentiments today in Taiwan are very different from 1972 but who knows
45:41
what the sentiments will be 3040 years from now so you say just kick the can down the road because it's easier than
45:48
confronting it well Kick the Can down the road sounds like a bad thing to do
45:53
uh sounds like people are not taking responsibility but what is the alternative is the alternative to force
46:00
a resolution that can lead to conflict and confrontation I don't think that's any wiser nor better but we should
46:08
engage we should talk um and and and even in the recent time I I've noticed
46:15
that sentiments in Taiwan have shifted after Ukraine um there there there is a
46:21
greater desire for stability you know it's not shifted towards One China but there is certainly
46:30
a greater understanding and concern amongst the Taiwanese population
46:36
about unilateral moves towards independence and what consequences that may bring to Taiwan and to the Safety
46:43
and Security of Taiwan and that's reflected in many of the polls if uh China were to blockade
46:52
Taiwan or engage in some kind of military intervention in Taiwan what would Singapore's position be you
46:59
have military relations with with Taiwan you do some of your training exercises there we do I mean it really depends
47:08
there are many hypothetical situations that can arise so rather than speculate on all of these hypothetical situations
47:16
we are very clear we uphold a one China policy it's not just us in incidentally
47:22
us all the Asian countries many many countries around the world have some
47:27
version of a one China policy so really what triggers a blockade what
47:34
triggers Pro provocation or escalation really depends on the context but we are
47:40
very clear about our policy on one China let me ask you about uh the other
47:46
big Global crisis that you've mentioned a couple of times when you look at the
47:51
the problem with Russia and Ukraine Singapore has been very uh uh uh forward
47:57
uh leaning in in in condemning that in supporting the sanctions against Russia
48:02
where do you think this goes it's hard to tell I I mean we we
48:09
are not monitoring this as closely because it's not within our region but
48:16
um it looks like it's going to be a long Hall before we can see any
48:22
resolution and and that means the world will be fragmented with Russia isolated
48:27
for a long time I I unfortunately I think that's the very likely POS
48:33
scenario that we have to work on and does does that mean to you that
48:39
adds to these pressures of a fragmented global global economy it does um we we
48:48
are concerned that it's as I mentioned just now you know we are going to be in a
48:55
world with more frictions on Global flows we are going to be in a world where there will be greater
49:01
fragmentation it's not going to be as condusive for small open economies like
49:07
us but at the same time I think there are silver linings
49:13
even in the darkest of clouds and we are starting off in Singapore now in a much
49:18
better position than we did say in the 60s or 70s when we first became
49:24
independent we have more resources we we are better equipped to deal with our
49:29
vulnerabilities we have a better system in place to adapt and to adjust and to
49:34
develop effective long-term policies and we have a solid reputation as a reliable and
49:42
trusted hub for the region and for the world so we can build on all of these
49:48
advantages invest in our competitive strengths continue to attract Capital
49:53
talent and flows into Singapore and ensure we keep on raising the standards of living
49:59
for our people you have a very strong security relationship with the United States and
50:06
you do a massive amount of economic business with China if those countries
50:12
were to tell you that Singapore has to choose between America and China what would you
50:18
say if it ever were to come to that it's not just Singapore that's going to be
50:23
affected it's the whole world and we better Buckle our seat belts if
50:29
it were if if were to come to that
50:35
because you know this is not like in the Cold War where you had the Soviet Union and you have two systems you can operate
50:41
two systems China's sheer size and scale today is much larger than the Soviet
50:47
Union was and it's embedded deeply in the global economy
50:52
today if countries not just Singapore countries every everywhere have to say
50:58
look I either choose a Chinese system or a US system for everything not just for
51:05
Hightech but for everything I think it will be disastrous for all of
51:11
us so you're hoping you won't have to make that choice I'm hoping for the good of the world that we don't have to make
51:17
that choice Mr Deputy Prime Minister that's fascinating now um let's move to the uh
51:25
audience uh part of this uh I my only request is if you ask a question that it
51:31
be in fact a question and that you identify yourself your name and your
51:36
organization if there is one um and if I can get a show of hands y I see somebody
51:41
in the back there I think somebody's going to try and get a mic to you as quickly as possible we have one there to
51:52
start y your ex your Excellency Duty pm esteemed moderator ladies and gentlemen
52:00
my name is saup from Bhutan currently pursuing Masters in public policy at
52:05
lonu school of public policy trust is the unique selling point of Singapore
52:11
known worldwide I believe in Zig zagler words one of the most prolific motivational
52:18
speaker who says if people like you they will listen to you if people trust you
52:24
they will do business with you and your question is and to put the lens in the right frame going forward how do you
52:31
ensure Singapore remains at a center of trust at the intersection of rising gen
52:38
z uh Rising technological disruption geopolitical uh tensions and economic
52:44
disruptions how to maintain maintain trust let's do one let's do one question at a time sir can we'll collect a few so
52:52
that Deputy Prime Minister can get at the back there yeah yeah uh my name is mhid has I work
52:59
for channel 24 I'm from Bangladesh I'm one of the AJF fellow this year um uh Deputy Prime Minister on this side so I
53:07
hope you're well out of uh the fact of the rohinga issue which is quite disturbing for Bangladesh Bangladesh is
53:13
wasting around 1.2 million ringas uh now we won see the there is a stable
53:19
situation in Myanmar in this case I would love to know your position how uh
53:24
you can expand your hands to help Bangladesh and maybe take some role being a leader in the Asia to normalize
53:32
the situation in Myanmar important question let's take one more on this side
53:38
um sorry there yeah uh good afternoon DPM I'm Kagan from tamasic poly Technic
53:45
as we transition into an era of strategic competition or possibly an extreme competition with all his
53:50
challenges what mental framework should new leaders adopt when contributing towards Singapore's social and economic
53:57
growth and in building an accountable and trusted system of governance thank you okay want to take those yeah yeah so
54:05
how I I think the first and the third questions are in some ways related because it's about building trust and
54:11
sustaining trust how do we do that at one level for Singapore it's really to
54:17
be consistent principled and credible in how we act
54:22
internationally so we have always said that we don't choose sides we are not
54:27
siding with one country or another it's not us or China we choose principles
54:34
what kind of principles we uphold international law we uphold a rules based multilateral order we stand for
54:41
the key principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty and the freedom of being attacked by another
54:46
country as enshrined in the United Nations Charter and and we have acted consistently in line with these
54:53
principles so when the US attacked Grenada in the early 80s we voted
54:58
against the attack against the US in the United Nations and likewise now with Russia's invasion of Ukraine we have
55:05
voted against it and acted taken actions against this so
55:10
it's it's how Singapore operates we are consistent we are principled we are
55:16
credible in our actions people friends other countries know what Singapore
55:23
stands for you may not always agree with us but you know that this is Singapore
55:28
and we hope through our consistent and predictable actions we make for a more
55:34
reliable and trusted partner so that's on the international scene within
55:39
Singapore itself I think trust is built when we are able to make sure that every
55:47
citizen you know regardless of backgrounds benefits from the nation's
55:52
success no one is Left Behind people feel a stake have a stake in Singapore's
55:58
success and feel that they are part of shaping the country's future and that's
56:04
what we've consistently been trying to do throughout our nation building journey and going forward as we see more
56:11
turbulence more disruptions more volatility uh we are reviewing our
56:16
policies now to see how we can strengthen the assurances for singaporeans that's why we are embarking
56:22
on an exercise we've called forward Singapore to ref to refresh update our
56:27
social Compact and to see what changes in Social policies would be needed to
56:33
provide that Assurance to singaporeans for example I think with technological
56:40
disruptions uh you know and and the rapid changes that are taking place there will be certainly more churn in
56:47
the workplace it doesn't mean there will be not it doesn't mean we won't have enough jobs created I'm sure we will be
56:54
able to create jobs I'm sure there there will be new jobs there'll be demand for workers but the individual will
57:01
experience more churn more disruptions in at work more transitions through
57:07
different careers and so one of the things we are looking at as part of this forward Singapore exercise is to see how
57:14
we can strengthen our system of Continuing Education and Training Beyond formal schooling what more can we do for
57:22
the system we call skills future where we can provide better training reskilling upskilling of individuals so
57:29
that regardless of the disruptions that happen to an individual's careers or whatever happens at the
57:36
workplace you know people will have some sense of assurance that they
57:42
can get training get reskilled and then find another job hopefully a better job
57:48
and they can get a second or even a third win in their careers so this is just an illustration of how we will
57:54
continually review upd our policies to make sure that we maintain a high level of trust in our
58:02
society on the third question on Myanmar it is a very important issue but there
58:07
are no easy answers unfortunately no external party can come
58:13
in to dictate or or or tell the government in Myanmar what to do in the end they have to resolve it themselves
58:20
Assan has put out a plan or fivepoint consensus um it will take take time it
58:27
had happened in earlier where with the
58:33
nudging the persuasion the influence of all the different parties including asan
58:39
eventually the Myanmar government found a way or the the the military in Myanmar
58:45
found a way to move forward this was previously I think around 2006 2007 uh we'll have to see whether it
58:52
works this time but we have to be prepared that it will take time and ultimately it will be the people in
58:58
Myanmar itself who will have to resolve this very difficult issue let's take one
59:03
from here hi my name is Angie Chu um it's very heartening that uh there's a high
59:10
code of conduct and uh politicians are being asked to resign or they step down
59:16
when there is a scandal like extramarital affair when will this be also transposed to the Civil Service as
59:24
uh you know we all respect the Civil Service it has a high integrity at the moment but it doesn't mean the
59:30
extramarital Affairs are not happening so when is a HR policy going to be put in place so that you don't have a
59:36
scandal like a perm SEC having a affair with one of the
59:42
Juniors shall we take one over here yeah uh good afternoon DPM uh I'm Judy a
59:48
student representative of raos institution so my question is with regards to Singapore's economic stance
59:54
and trade so in global Global Winds of Change in the context of covid we see the trading block economies ushering
1:00:00
into a protectionist ERA with advanced economies rolling out subsidies as you have mentioned earlier so as a small
1:00:06
state in a multilateral system do we see Singapore following this trend to stay competitive and using selective policies
1:00:13
in order to protect the interest of the people or at least adopting a different pattern of globalization and what will
1:00:19
this change be thank you and let me add a third one to this uh if I may uh DPM
1:00:26
which is from the uh the iPad meaning the online audience an chingman asks
1:00:32
with everyone keeping their original identities what are the challenges in layering on the Singapore identity how
1:00:38
much immigration can we take without diluting this identity thank you three very different
1:00:45
questions um on the Civil Service and code of conduct first of all where the
1:00:51
government is concerned where ministers are concerned and where the pap is conc concern and the rules of prudence the
1:00:58
Prime Minister has laid out the principles very clearly in Parliament but I I don't want to Bel label or go
1:01:05
through the points in great detail but as as he explained where it comes to corruption
1:01:11
and criminal wrongdoing we have zero tolerance we are very clear about that
1:01:16
where it comes to personal personal behaviors moral issues it's much more complex and you really have to look at
1:01:23
it Case by case and he highlighted explain three different scenarios one
1:01:29
where indeed there could be an extramarital affair something that a personal conduct that fell short of
1:01:35
Standards but the person is counseled person is spoken to and he rectifies his
1:01:42
actions and then life life continues a second scenario would be one quite On
1:01:48
The Other Extreme where there's improper relationship particularly when there is
1:01:54
a superior and subordinate relationship that's not quite right and then indeed
1:01:59
actions have to be taken and of course you have a third scenario which could be something in between and so that's the basis in which
1:02:08
the pap and operates where it comes to issues of morality and personal conduct
1:02:14
the civil service has its own code and I would say it's not very different from
1:02:20
the principles which I have just laid out but meaning to say there is a very
1:02:26
clear difference between issues of corruption criminal wrongdoing for which
1:02:31
we have zero tolerance and issues of personal conduct and it will really depend on the specific uh details of the
1:02:39
case and whether it's the government whether it's a Pap or whether it's a civil service we will want to do the
1:02:45
right thing but at the same time exercise compassion and sensitivity to innocent parties especially to family
1:02:52
members spouses and children um on on Judy's question I
1:02:58
think about selective about what Singapore will do in response to this
1:03:03
new environment where there will be more State subsidies more active industrial policies uh will we match well as I've
1:03:12
described we can't possibly match the scale of subsidies that are being thrown
1:03:18
out by many other developed countries so in some instances we will have to say
1:03:23
too bad if governments are giving out so much money just to Anchor that particular
1:03:29
investment it doesn't make sense for Singapore to be part of this subsidies
1:03:34
arms race but to be clear we are not standing still we are not doing nothing
1:03:40
we are continuing to invest in our capabilities to invest in new areas of
1:03:46
growth We are continuing to attract investments into Singapore and we have
1:03:52
every confidence that Singapore can continue to do well and we can create many more good jobs for
1:03:58
singaporeans as I mentioned just now our reputation is good particularly going
1:04:03
through covid we are a reliable and trusted Hub we are investing in
1:04:09
expanding our airports and our sea ports and so in areas like Finance Advanced
1:04:14
manufacturing Logistics green economy I think these are all new areas where
1:04:20
there will be continued growth and opportunities for singaporeans young and old old on identity uh yes there is a
1:04:30
limit to how much we can bring in and that's why we have been controlling the numbers it's not Limitless it's not uh
1:04:38
excessive we have been regulating the numbers because at the end of the day the numbers are constrained by how much
1:04:47
we are able to integrate the new arrivals we welcome them we must stay open as a society that's not just
1:04:55
essential for Singapore it's existential for us because at you know given our
1:05:02
current birth rates which is something like just above 1.0 you know if we are not able to bring
1:05:08
in immigrants to top up the population then we are in a structural Decline and
1:05:16
eventually the population will decline the workforce will Decline and Singapore
1:05:21
will declin so we have to continue taking in immigrants welcome them those
1:05:29
who embrace our values and our way of life we should integrate them into our
1:05:34
society but the pace at which we are able to bring in immigrants will in the
1:05:42
end depend on how well we are able to integrate them and that takes both sides
1:05:49
it takes the new arrivals to adjust and to embrace our value Val and way of life
1:05:57
but it also takes us in Singapore to be open-minded to embrace them and welcome
1:06:03
them as part of the family let's take one quick one here I think we have okay we take one there um
1:06:12
is that young man
1:06:21
yes uh hi I'm I'm EA from Raffles institution thank you to both for gracing this event so my question is
1:06:27
about Singapore's domestic policy sorry in in advance for my long Preamble but
1:06:33
covid-19 and the doitory situation has unfortunately revealed that migrant workers are still being marginalized and
1:06:40
more still has to be done to integrate them now I feel that the problem is an Institutional one where the current work
1:06:46
permit system impedes the ability of Migrant workers to connect with the local population and laws like those
1:06:53
that prohibit them from bringing their dependence or prohibiting them from applying for citizenship stress the idea
1:06:59
that these workers are just transient that they are just there for work and work alone so cognizant of this and
1:07:05
cognizant that we plan to have a greater proportion of these workers in our Workforce do you think that we should
1:07:11
move away from this solely utilitarian view of foreign workers and if a change in our current institution or system is
1:07:17
warranted thank you very intelligently phrased why don't you uh take that uh
1:07:26
we do want to embrace uh our work permit holders and they are very vital part of
1:07:34
our economy we saw that during the covid period where they make so many
1:07:39
sacrifices and we saw how much of you know how how much they contribute to
1:07:44
building Singapore our residential Apartments our ports so many different
1:07:50
aspects so we do owe it to our migrant workers particularly the work permit
1:07:56
holders to make sure that they can work safely here to make sure that they have a good environment in Singapore and we
1:08:04
are continuing to improve our standards so we talk about dotry standards we have
1:08:09
just updated those doet standards to make sure that we give them a Better
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Living environment and we will continue to look at different ways to take care of these migrant workers including their
1:08:22
mental well-being spaces for recreation whole range of issues that government
1:08:27
agencies are in fact very focused on and if you look around the world at
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countries with large proportions of Migrant workers in fact I think we can hold you know we can in good conscience
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say that in Singapore we treat our migrant workers well and we will continue to do better now you say there
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are structural impediments in terms of some of them becoming you know being able to bring in dependence and
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eventually coming into um you know take on permanent residency and that that sort of thing yes there
1:09:01
will be challenges in if all of them suddenly overnight become permanent residents or bring their dependence we
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just going back to the earlier question we will not have the ability to integrate all of them into our society
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so one has to understand the balance we have migrant workers in our midst we
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welcome them amongst the whole spread of migrant of workers from work permit to
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employment passes a small proportion will come in as permanent residents and
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it's gated it's regulated and we want to make sure that those who come in as permanent residents and eventually
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citizens are the ones who have the best chance to integrate into our society and
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embrace our way of life that must be the approach so that g in that regulated
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flow will always be there but it doesn't mean that we treat the rest of the
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migrant workers badly on the contrary we will do everything we can from a government point of view to improve
1:10:08
their work conditions and their living conditions and we also appeal to singaporeans to do their part and that's
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why if I were to build a doer next to your home please welcome that demetry with
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open arms all right
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um let me ask a final question Mr Deputy Prime Minister which I have a personal
1:10:36
interest in because it involves a dear friend of mine who is your pick for the upcoming presidential
1:10:44
election I shall keep my pick to myself but I would encourage everyone in Singapore to consider very carefully and
1:10:52
choose the best candidate who can hold the highest office of the land all right with that with that
1:10:58
diplomatic answer pleasure to see you thank you was Wonder you very much thank
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you [Music]