投资很简单,但并不容易

查理·芒格善于以多学科知识进行投资研究。他认为达尔文关于物种如何通过适应环境生存下来、物种间如何竞争或合作的理论,值得企业借鉴。对投资人来说也是需要掌握的基本思维模型。

那烂陀资本(Nalanda Capital)创始人普拉克·普拉萨德(Pulak Prasad)在芒格的启发下,开始深入挖掘了达尔文学说的核心理念。他将自然界的鲜活案例与自身的投资实践相结合,并整理成书《我从达尔文那里学到的投资知识》。

本书中文版一经推出便受到国内读者的广泛好评,截止目前在豆瓣评分高达9.0。作者普拉克·普拉萨德为了表达感谢,特地写了一封《致中国投资者的信》

以下为这封信的全文。


Hello readers:

读者朋友们,你们好!

Have you ever imagined finding silver foxes, stock market valuations, honeybees, corporate debt, Darwin’s finches, and business excellence within the same book?  If not, I sincerely hope you will be pleasantly surprised by my book “What I Learned About Investing From Darwin.”  

你们是否想象过,能在一本书里同时读到银狐、股市估值、蜜蜂、企业债务、地雀和卓越企业的故事?如果从未有过这样的期待,那么我希望我的著作《我从达尔文那里学到的投资知识》能带给你们惊喜。

To be clear, this is a book on equity investing, not the theory of evolution. I have incorporated core Darwinian principles to make the book more interesting and readable (I hope!), but at its heart, the book highlights my personal learnings as an investor in the Indian equity markets.

需要说明的是,这本书探讨的是股票投资,而非进化论。我借鉴了达尔文的核心思想来增加趣味性和可读性(但愿如此!),但本质上,书中记录的是我作为印度股市投资者的切身经验。

But why should you learn from meWhat have I done to earn this honour? Let me highlight three key things. 

为何要向我学习?我有什么资格?请容我列举三个关键点:

First, I have been an investor for 27 years which, as many of you might agree, is a considerable amount of time to learn from one’s mistakes. These 27 years have witnessed six changes of central government in India, the global financial crisis, the global pandemic, the dotcom crash, significant changes in Indian regulations, and so much more.  In other words, as an equity investor, while I may not have experienced absolutely everything, I have been through enough, and my investing lessons have proven resilient over time.

第一,我拥有27年投资经验。诸位想必认同,这段漫长岁月足以让人从错误中成长。这27年间,印度经历了六届中央政府更迭、全球金融危机、新冠疫情大流行、互联网泡沫破裂、监管体系重大变革等等。换言之,作为一名股权投资者,我虽未历尽万事,却已饱经风霜,而我的投资心法也经受住了时间考验。

Second, I learned from the best during my almost nine-year tenure at the private equity firm Warburg Pincus, before setting up my own fund (Nalanda) eighteen years ago. My stint at the global firm Warburg helped me internalise the simple – yet often underestimated – truth: core investing principles remain consistent across geographies and time periods.  

第二,在创立自家基金(那烂陀资本)前的年里,我曾效力于私募巨头华平投资。这段经历让我深刻领悟一个朴素却常被忽视的真理:核心投资原则放之四海、历久弥新。

And third, Nalanda has outperformed the market by close to double digits annually over the past eighteen years. It could have been luck, of course, but over eighteen years, there is probably some skill in there, too.  Our method has proven effective.  Very effective.  

第三,过去十八年,那烂陀资本的年化收益率持续跑赢市场近10个百分点。当然可能是运气使然,但若能延续十八载,其中想必也有真功夫。我们的方法确实有效——极其有效。

Which brings us to the question: what is this “method” that has worked so well over almost two decades? Before delving into the method or the process, let’s define Nalanda’s investment philosophy, upon which this process is based.  Our investment approach can be summarised in just ten words: We want to be permanent owners of high-quality businesses

那么,这个延续二十载的“方法”究竟是什么? 在详解方法前,请先了解那烂陀的投资哲学(方法正根植于此),它可用十个单词概括:我们立志成为高质量企业的永久所有者

The choice of words here is deliberate –when I say “permanent”, I truly mean permanent. When we invest, our intention is to stay invested in the business indefinitely, not just for an 8 to 10-year time frame.  Second, we aim to be “owners” of the business, not merely investors.  An owner is willing to stand by the business through its inevitable ups and downs, while an investor may feel no such obligation.  Note the two crucial words “high-quality”.  This is admittedly a somewhat vague term and can, and does, have different meanings for different investors.  The book not only details Nalanda’s specific definition of “high-quality” but also why this definition is likely to endure.  

这句话里的每个措辞都经过深思熟虑:

  • 永久即字面意义的永远。我们的投资没有8-10年退出期限,而是永续持有。

  • “所有者”意味着与企业共渡荣枯,而非仅当顺境股东。

  • 高质量虽显主观(不同投资者定义各异),但本书不仅会阐明那烂陀的独家定义,更将论证其历久弥新的合理性。



If you accept the ten-word investment philosophy of Nalanda in the para above, then our three-step approach to investment success logically follows:

1.Avoid big risks

2.Buy high-quality at a fair price

3.Don’t be lazy – be very lazy

若你认同上述哲学,我们的三步骤投资法便顺理成章:

1.规避重大风险

2.以合理价格高质量股票

3.不轻易买入,更不轻易卖出

In my opinion, the most critical skill an investor needs to learn is how not to invest.  Yes, refraining from investing is a skill in itself.  The majority of investing advice from investment gurus, finance academics, and fund managers focuses on making investments.  I contend that knowing when not to invest is a more challenging and ultimately more important skill to cultivate than learning how to invest.

我认为投资者最需掌握的技能其实是懂得不投资。没错,克制本身就是一种能力。当市面上所有投资大师、金融学者和基金经理都在教人“如何投”时,我要说:知所不投,远比知所投更难,也更重要

So, when should we refrain from investing? When the risk is substantial.  The book provides numerous examples of high-risk investments, some of which include: businesses run by crooks, turnaround situations, unproven business models, balance sheet loaded with debt, and many others.  At Nalanda, most of our time is spent saying “No”.  Avoiding substantial risks has allowed us to take calculated ones.

何时该按兵不动?当风险过高时。 书中列举了大量高风险投资案例:骗子经营的企业、困境反转股、未经验证的商业模式、债台高筑的公司等等。在那烂陀,我们大部分时间都在说“不”。正是这种规避,才让我们能精准出击。

This brings me to the second component of our investment approach: Buy high-quality at a fair price. Sounds simple, doesn’t it?  Not so fast.  Do you believe any sane investment manager would ever claim to buy “low-quality at a high price”?  Of course not.  Every long-term investor professes to emulate the Buffetesque strategy of buying quality at a sensible valuation.  But then why do the portfolio holdings of different fund managers vary so considerably, and why are most unable to beat the market over the long term?  This discrepancy arises because each fund manager has their own unique definition of “high-quality” and “fair price”.  Nalanda has its own definitions for these two critical terms, which I have discussed in the book over six different chapters.  Indeed, defining quality and price requires considerable effort!

第二步骤以合理价格购入高质量股票”听起来简单,实则不然。难道有基金经理会宣称自己“以高价买劣质资产”吗?当然不会。所有长期投资者都标榜效仿巴菲特——以合理估值买入优质资产。但为何各家的持仓天差地别?为何多数人长期无法跑赢市场?症结在于:每个人对高质量”和“合理”的定义不同。本书用六个章节详解那烂陀的定义体系——定义质量与价格本就是门学问!

While most fund managers would concur with the first two elements of our investing process, most will diverge on our third principle: Don’t be lazy – be very lazy.  The majority (if not all) investors eventually sell their investments.  We don’t.  We are very lazy when it comes to selling quality businesses.  If you are a professional or a retail investor reading this, your initial thought might be: What if the valuation becomes excessive?  Well, across three chapters I have addressed this and many other questions concerning the benefits of never selling a quality business.  I have used real-world examples from Nalanda to illustrate why being “lazy” might not seem intuitively sound to an investor initially but can ultimately lead to superior long-term results.

对于第三步骤不轻易买卖”,多数基金经理恐怕难以苟同。几乎所有投资者最终都会卖出持仓,但我们不会。面对优质企业,我们懒惰至极。专业投资者或散户此刻或许会问:若估值过高也不卖吗? 本书用三个章节结合那烂陀的真实案例,论证为何这种“懒惰”虽反直觉,却能缔造长期超额收益。

One final point. I would consider my objective in writing this book achieved if, upon finishing it, you come to appreciate the following truth: investing is simple, but it is not easy. 

最后,若读完本书后你能领悟一个真理,我便算达成所愿:投资很简单,却不容易

Enjoy!

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