Last Friday was an important day for me.
. I was very confident based on the previous experience.
The market did rally before lunch, but began to melt down after lunch and the market touched the previous low.
Even by this time, was still showing relative strength. SPY had broken down the previous low while they were still holding there.
Every thing was still all right so far. By 3:00 clock I was off due to the holiday. And I thought the market should do nothing. To my surprise, the market sold off at the last 15 minutes and was closing at their daily low.
The last 15 minutes selling was definite not good for the market, not good for me. From August, my rule has been working pretty well and last Friday the market showed the familiar behavior.
If the market still goes down, this will be the first time that my rule does not work since August. This would be very important for me.
Still, the last 15 minutes selling could be explained in term of Friday afternoon’s low volume trading.
It is still too early to conclude that the market will not rebound from here.
Also, there are only four days left for the 2006. The chance for the market going higher is very high. So I will continue to hold my LONG.
Right now it is 10:00 as I am writing this paper, the market is pretty strong so far. This gives me further confidence. I will just hold my position to the year end, and enjoy the holiday with my family.
