（如果中国地震局严密监视这个区域，加上如果意识到了动物近期内的
“时间”。
汶川/北川: （20到22日）阵雨 能见度 1KM-10KM
全国死亡:40075人 四川死：39577人 被埋:3500人
全国受伤人数：247645人 四川受伤:235359人
救出：334340人 治疗:52934人
捐赠: 139.25亿元
- 四川:39577人遇难 汶川2562人遇难
- 北川8605人遇难 绵竹6805人遇难
- 青川2675人遇难 都江堰3069人遇难
- 什邡3546人遇难 彭州870人遇难
Micheal Ellis说，“就我所知，这是目前对这个活跃断层的唯一调查。”
“5月12日四川北川发生了致命的世纪大地震。其实大约10个月前，一项正式的科学研究报告就已经明确告知中国北川地区将面临一次毁灭性的大地震。”---这是美国著名的《国家地理》杂志最近发表的结论。
事实是这样的：在2007年7月那一期的《地壳（Tectonics）》杂志中，发表了美国科学家有关中国北川地震带的研究。这项研究的牵头人之一就是美国田纳西孟菲斯大学地震研究和信息中心的Micheal Ellis。
他说：我们研究小组里有美国人、欧洲人和华人，大家都是地理研究方面的科学工作者。我们当时的报告写道：“断层长度已经足以引发一次强烈的地面摇晃式地震，该地区已成为爆发灾难性破坏的极为严峻的区域。（The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard）”
这些科学家通过仔细研究卫星图像，并且对过去十年四川地壳断层的深度和活动进行了全面研究，然后在论文中的结论是，“地壳撞击的能量在（中国）北川聚积，并将以地震的形式释放出来。” ----他们向地震界发出了以上的警告。
现在看来这个预言之精确，真的让人不寒而栗，也让中国有关地震预报者汗颜！----当时，这些研究员将活动的断层在显示北川的彩色地图上明确地标示了出来。现在我们看到，标注的地方正好就是这场惨绝人寰大地震的震中。
从这篇文章我们可以看到，
1）研究成果锁进了杂志
《国家地理》杂志说，可以确信，中国地震当局对2007年7月的报告完全没有反应，否则事情绝不会沦为现在的局面。
Micheal Ellis说，“我们已经明确地标示了这些活跃断层的威力”，“但这段信息实际上被锁进了一份学术期刊。”
如果有关地震预报当局，对Micheal Ellis的报告当一回事，当他们看到那么多的反常行为时，就应该意识到地震要到了。但他们没有对Micheal Ellis研究报告跟进，没有作出任何预测。至少在对社会公众公开的信息方面，他们没有作出任何有意义的防范提示。
因为没有任何防范，灾区大部几乎溺为平地，死亡人数近五万，还有大量伤者，近500万人的家园遭到破坏。
2）希望能用防震建筑
Ellis说，“（地震前）我曾经去过这些小村镇”“大多数房屋都没使用加固材料，而且那个地区几乎没有制砖厂。”我希望他们能用防震建筑替换现今已经塌陷的建筑，至少可以避免未来的悲剧。“制造防震建筑成本相对较高，但这些地区的绝大多数人还十分贫困。”
3）地震背后的科学---北川的地震活动并不罕见。
Ellis和他的同事在去年夏天的报告中写到：“我们的证据显示，从12000至13000年前开始，北川就始终伴随着使地表断裂的地震。”
在接受《国家地理》这次采访时，Ellis说,“基本上说，这次（2008年）地震的原因，是印度板块和亚洲地壳板块持续且不可阻挡的碰撞，其速率约为一年20-22毫米。”这次碰撞起始于5千万年前，当时印度下方板块撞向了欧洲板块。“喜马拉雅和青藏高原便是从这个碰撞中产生的。”
“随着印度板块持续缓慢地撞向亚洲板块，猛烈的时候就产生了地震，整个青藏高原都被向北推移。”
科罗拉多大学的地质学家Roger Bilham说，我没有参与2007年的研究小组，“这次地震使得西藏山区向东边的成都平原移动”
4）问题不仅仅局限于四川
Ellis说，随着西藏高原的北移，“西藏的中部地区正在塌陷，就像奶酪刚从烤箱中拿出来放到冷空气中一样。”“西藏的南部边缘的断层一侧，其面对的地震威胁和四川一样大。”“在喜马拉雅地区，相关财产和生命的损失风险非常大的，因为有大量的人口居住在那，还有很多人正迁往那。”
“喜马拉雅地区的风险和四川一样高。那里的人口贫困，建筑类似于印度和尼泊尔，建筑标准很低。”
“而且，随着印度板块持续不断地撞向西藏板块，它正在制造新的断层。就是说，新的断层同时产生新的危险”。
（本文 根据美国《国家地理》杂志（《National Geographic》的文章整理 ）
---------------------
我们为中国着想，更为人民着想。真不希望这些不作为/渎职的地震局再给无辜的人们带来灾难。
如果我们只为那些渎职的地震局人员着想，那谁为那些无辜的死去的同胞、受伤的同胞、无家可归的同胞着想？
地震局的不作为和那些黑着良心搞豆腐渣工程的建筑商一样，是应当负责任的。
是的，总体上我们不能说“地震可测”，但在具体的项目上他们也不能一律认为“地震不可测”，而把所有的责任全部推掉。
Micheal
过去一年来，地震局是否对该区有关切，有没有有关的记录？关切的程度如何？应当组成有关小组问责。
关于时间问题，从大量的动物反常行为，从水库的下陷，从坊间的“流言”：“近期会有地震”---四川地震网“避谣”的文章（现在撤掉了）正说明了这段时间的可测性，只是那些地震人员渎职忽略这个明确的时间而已----你说，连老百姓都在问：是不是最近又什么自然灾害要发生？不正好说明了时间的可测性。只是地震局不作为，没有去预测而已。
显然，是中国地震局，没有把美国科学家预测的“地点”和中国坊间预测的“时间”结合起来，是他们的渎职行为之一；
没有正确引导人们去防范地震，而是一味“避谣”流言，判断失误，错失良机，是他们的渎职行为之二；
地震发生之后，不感到自责，还一味强调地震的“不可测性”，极力推掉他们的不作为责任，是其渎职行为之三；
他们对国际的科研情报不敏感、发现不及时，跟踪不及时，对民间的流传不感兴趣不加以正视，表明了他们的科研态度非常有问题，是其渎职行为之四。
我们讲中国地震局的不作为，就是讲他们的敷衍态度，非科学的态度。目的是希望不要再让那么多的孩子们.....
附： 《国家地理》杂志上的原文：“Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago”
原文地址：http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/05/080516-earthquake-predicted.html
“ Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago”
Kevin Holden Platt in Beijing， for National Geographic News， May 16, 2008
Just ten months before a deadly earthquake struck Sichuan Province's Beichuan county on May 12, a scientific study warned that the Chinese region was ripe for a major quake.
After examining satellite images and conducting on-the-ground inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning.
China earthquake predicted (map)
"The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard," the Chinese, European, and U.S. geoscientists wrote in the mid-July 2007 edition of the journal Tectonics.
They concluded that clashing tectonic forces were growing in Beichuan, ready to burst in an explosion of seismic energy.
With precision and what now seems like eerie foresight, the researchers charted the active faults on multicolored maps of Beichuan, which turned out to be the epicenter of the recent earthquake.
"As far as I know, this is the only investigation of these active faults," said study co-author Michael Ellis of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis in Tennessee.
(Related: "China Quake Delivered Seismic One-Two Punch" [May 15, 2008].)
The magnitude 7.9 quake that struck on May 12 almost entirely leveled parts of Sichuan Province. Chinese officials today estimated that the death toll would reach 50,000 and that nearly five million people are homeless.
(See photos of the earthquake's destruction.)
"Locked in a Journal"
There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been.
"We had certainly identified the potential of these active faults," Ellis said. "But that information was effectively locked in an academic journal."
Ellis hopes that replacing the collapsed buildings with earthquake-proof structures could prevent future tragedies.
"I've been to these little towns [before the quake]," Ellis said. "Most of the houses are built of unreinforced masonry, and you can see little brick factories all around this area.
China earthquake predicted (map)
"It is more expensive to build earthquake-proof structures," he added. And the vast majority of people in Sichuan Province are anything but rich.
The Science Behind the Quake
Earthquake activity is nothing new in Beichuan.
"We have shown evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes along the Beichuan fault since 12,000-13,000 years ago," Ellis and colleagues reported last summer.
Speaking with National Geographic News, Ellis said, "Ultimately, the [2008] earthquake is related to the continuing and inexorable collision of India with Asia, which is occurring at a rate of about 20 to 22 milimeters [just under an inch] per year."
This collision started more than 50 million years ago, when the tectonic plate beneath India crashed into the Eurasian plate. (Watch how the plates slammed into each other.)
"The Himalayas and all of Tibet was CREAted by this collision," Ellis added.
As the Indian plate continues its slow-motion crash into Asia—sometimes in jerks marked by earthquakes—it is pushing the entire Tibetan Plateau northward.
"This earthquake was the Tibetan mountains moving east over the plains of Chengdu [the capital of Sichuan Province]," said Roger Bilham, a geoscientist at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the July 2007 study.
Not Just Sichuan's Problem
Study co-author Ellis said that, as the Tibetan Plateau moves northward, "the interior parts of Tibet are collapsing, rather like a soufflé taken out of the oven into cold air."
Faults along the southern, Himalayan edge of Tibet present hazards as great as those underlying the Sichuan temblor, Ellis said.
"Risk associated with the loss of collateral and lives is very high along the Himalaya, because so many people live there or immediately downstream," Ellis added.
"The risk is similarly high in Sichuan [to the east], because of the population and, like India and Nepal, the relatively poor building standards," he said.
And as India continues to pound into Tibet, "it is still creating new fault lines"—and new dangers.
