China’s stimulus shows the problem of success
By Yu Yongding
Published: August 25 2009 20:03 | Last updated: August 25 2009 20:03
China has rebounded from the global slump with vigour. In the second quarter, its official figures showed year-on-year gross domestic product growth of 7.9 per cent. Those who doubt the quality of China’s macroeconomic statistics can check its physical statistics: in June, electricity production increased 5.2 per cent, reversing the falls of the previous eight months. It is almost certain that China’s GDP will grow more than 8 per cent this year.
But there are problems looming. More investment thanks to China’s rescue package threatens to worsen the already severe overcapacity, while the cash injection is already creating asset bubbles.
The reason for China’s stimulus is simple. While it did not suffer a western-style financial crisis, it was hit hard by the second-order effects, as exports suddenly collapsed. In 2007, the growth rate of exports was 25.7 per cent, and exports made up 36 per cent of GDP. In November last year the exports shrank 2.2 per cent on the year, and have fallen continuously since then. In May 2009, exports plunged 26.4 per cent against a year earlier. The fall of exports may have cut GDP growth 3 percentage points. If its indirect impact is included, it may have shaved more than 5 points off China’s 2008 growth.
The Chinese government reacted very quickly. In November 2008, the government introduced a Rmb4,000bn ($580bn,
