tninja (K dash)：前面关于逻辑思维的模式，个人以为是哲学层面的东西。戈塞特是否有哲学层面的著述，我没看到过。其次，回归这个词实际上是由高尔顿首先提出（Francis Galton. Presidential address, Section H, Anthropology. (1885) (Galton uses the term "regression" in this paper, which discusses the height of humans.) 之后由皮尔逊和Udny Yule发展的。（Pearson, Karl; Yule, G.U.; Blanchard, Norman; Lee,Alice (1903). "The Law of Ancestral Heredity". Biometrika (Biometrika Trust) 2 (2): 211–236. doi:10.1093/biomet/2.2.211. JSTOR 2331683.） 戈塞特在皮尔逊主办的biometrika发表t检验是在1908年，在相关分析和回归分析提出之后。这些资料都在wikipedia上。
谎言，该死的谎言，统计数字（英文：Lies, damned lies, and statistics），是一句著名的西方谚语。主要描述数字的说服能力，特别是用来讽刺一些使用统计数字支持、但毫无说服力的分析报告，以及人们倾向于贬低那些不支持其立场的统计结论。
[编辑] 简介
其名言部分来自19世纪英国首相本傑明·迪斯雷利，此后经美国著名文豪马克·吐温之笔，被广泛传诵，原句载马克·吐温的《我的自传》：“图表经常欺骗我，特别是我在整理它们的时候。那些标记有时让我联想到本傑明·迪斯雷利说的一句至理名言‘世界上有三种谎言：谎言，该死的谎言，统计数字。’（There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.）”[1]。但其原句并没有发现在本傑明·迪斯雷利的演说稿或者其他作品中。
The secret language of statistics, so appealing in a fact-minded culture, is employed to sensationalize, inflate, confuse, and oversimplify. Statistical methods and statistical terms are necessary in reporting the mass data of social and economic trends, business conditions, "opinion" polls, the census. But without writers who use the words with honesty and understanding and readers who know what they mean, the result can only be semantic nonsense.
Introduction
A well-wrapped statistic is better than Hitler's "big lie"; it misleads, yet it cannot be pinned on you.
Introduction
Who are those who chucked the questionnaire into the nearest wastebasket?
Chapter 1: The Sample With the Built-in Bias
Even if you can't find a source of demonstrable bias, allow yourself some degree of skepticism about the results as long as there is a possibility of bias somewhere. There always is.
Chapter 1: The Sample With the Built-in Bias
This is the little figure that is not there—on the assumption that you, the lay reader, wouldn't understand it. Or that, where there is an axe to grind, you would.
Chapter 3: The Little Figures That Are Not There
Referring to degree of significance
It is all too reminiscent of an old definition of the lecture method of classroom instruction: a process by which the contents of the textbook of the instructor are transferred to the notebook of the student without passing through the heads of either party.
Chapter 3: The Little Figures That Are Not There
There is terror in numbers. [...] Perhaps we suffer from a trauma induced by grade-school arithmetic.
Chapter 5: The Gee-Whiz Graph
Nothing has been falsified—except the impression that it gives.
Chapter 5: The Gee-Whiz Graph
If you can't prove what you want to prove, demonstrate something else and pretend they are the same thing. In the daze that follows the collision of statistics with the human mind, hardly anyone will notice the difference.
Chapter 7: The Semiattached Figure
The president of the American Statistical Association once called me down for that. Not chicanery much of the time, said he, but incompetence. There may be something in what he says, but I am not certain that one assumption will be less offensive to statisticians than the other.
Chapter 9: How to Statisticulate
What comes full of virtue from the statistician's desk may find itself twisted, exaggerated, oversimplified, and distorted-through-selection by salesman, public-relations expert, journalist, or advertising copywriter. [...] As long as the errors remain one-sided, it is not easy to attribute them to bungling and accident.
Chapter 9: How to Statisticulate
It's all a little like the tale of a roadside merchant who was asked to explain how he could sell rabbit sandwiches so cheap. "Well," he said, "I have to put in some horse meat too. But I mix 'em fifty-fifty: one horse, one rabbit."
Chapter 9: How to Statisticulate
[edit] Quotes about How to Lie with Statistics
There is some irony to the world’s most famous statistics book having been written by a person with no formal training in statistics, but there is also some logic to how this came to be. Huff had a thorough training for excellence in communication, and he had an exceptional commitment to doing things for himself. [...] In the publishing field, this is what one means by pioneering, original work.
J.M. Steele, "Darrell Huff and Fifty Years of How to Lie with Statistics", Statistical Science, 20 (3), 2005, 205–209.
